Low Pressure in the Central Atlantic (Is Invest 91L)

[toad strangler]

Lol nearly impossible feat to keep a ridge holding for that long now a days. Shields up!

Of course a ridge can hold that long. Remember IKE in 08 that ridge drove IKE in same area west then SW through Cuba all the way to Texas. It's about the orientation and timing. If the ridge does not shift SW this thing would go through Florida and deep into the Gulf.

You know the drill this far out is it's a crap shoot. I will tell you one thing there ain't a strong trough anywhere on any of the models so the margins are small for this to easily flip next run.

I here ya! Just the usual these days it’s almost like climate change has changed something around Florida not allowing these storms to make landfall. Just one theory. Nearly 2 weeks out so lots can and will change.

Disagree 100% and I would disagree more if there was a real value larger than 100%. The longest stretch since 1850 with no hurricane strike of any strength on the FL East coast was 1850-1871. A century plus BEFORE the climate change debate.

1871 was a Martin County Cat 3 landfall. There wasn’t a landfall in South Florida until a Cat 3 into Miami / Dade in 1888. That’s THIRTY EIGHT YEARS from 185O. That streak may be much longer going back pre 1850.

You seriously need to check the facts before dragging out the modern day easy crutch of climate change.

[Blown Away]

Little surprised this area is not an invest.

[Nimbus]

Still should be waiting for an actual center to form but it does look like EPS has a pretty significant shift northwards, barely any members near Cuba.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220827/d08d38e21a1b9d2fd60e4b2860cbbb8c.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220827/155026732b59d193a3fb5222d9dec614.jpg


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Its nice to see most of the models leaving the leewards on the weak side of the storm.
Not much of a center to track yet, but there is a mesovort running NW for 15N as the sun sets today.

[Spacecoast]

12z Euro Operational + EPS
Thin black is ensemble mean, (which has less acute turn)....

[Cachondo23]

Here's what we know about the models after the 12z Cycle.

Now that the CMC has jumped on board with the development of this system, it's now safe to say that there is complete model consistency with the development of this system into a Tropical Cyclone within the next 2-7 days
The general direction of the system will eventually start moving WNW from due West in 2-4 days, avoiding direct impact on the Leeward Islands

But here are the uncertainties with this system.

The Strength and intensity of this system, the 12z GFS model shows a weaker system compared to the Euro and ICON.
The strength of the Bermuda Ridge is a huge factor in the directional movement of the storm since a weaker system will curve around it, avoiding land completely while a much stronger storm will deviate further west, threatening landmasses such as the Bahamas, Florida, and possibly the gulf coast or the East Coast depending on where it will go.
The SE ridge may develop and force the storm to move away from it, avoiding impacts to Florida.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

How sure it will avoid any of the Leeward Islands? I think the area of Anguilla and Anegada could have impacts according to models today.

[aspen]

Still should be waiting for an actual center to form but it does look like EPS has a pretty significant shift northwards, barely any members near Cuba.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220827/d08d38e21a1b9d2fd60e4b2860cbbb8c.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220827/155026732b59d193a3fb5222d9dec614.jpg


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Its nice to see most of the models leaving the leewards on the weak side of the storm.
Not much of a center to track yet, but there is a mesovort running NW for 15N as the sun sets today.


https://i.imgur.com/hl7kRbV.gif

It’s gone from two distinct competing area of convection and spin, to one strong area of vorticity with a large spin and no separate convective lobes. Still a ways to go but an improvement from 48 hours ago.

[SFLcane]

Of course a ridge can hold that long. Remember IKE in 08 that ridge drove IKE in same area west then SW through Cuba all the way to Texas. It's about the orientation and timing. If the ridge does not shift SW this thing would go through Florida and deep into the Gulf.

You know the drill this far out is it's a crap shoot. I will tell you one thing there ain't a strong trough anywhere on any of the models so the margins are small for this to easily flip next run.

I here ya! Just the usual these days it’s almost like climate change has changed something around Florida not allowing these storms to make landfall. Just one theory. Nearly 2 weeks out so lots can and will change.

Disagree 100% and I would disagree more if there was a real value larger than 100%. The longest stretch since 1850 with no hurricane strike of any strength on the FL East coast was 1850-1871. A century plus BEFORE the climate change debate.

1871 was a Martin County Cat 3 landfall. There wasn’t a landfall in South Florida until a Cat 3 into Miami / Dade in 1888. That’s THIRTY EIGHT YEARS from 185O. That streak may be much longer going back pre 1850.

You seriously need to check the facts before dragging out the modern day easy crutch of climate change.

I am just still spoiled from busy seasons 04,05.

[chaser1]

JMA also has the ridge building SW over Florida. With the Euro and CMC also showing this it certainly is possible:

https://i.postimg.cc/7PVDYfFV/jma-z500a-Norm-atl-fh120-192.gif

Not sure how I see that happening. Look at last night's 0Z EURO 500mb heights. Solid E. Coast ridging but no indication of 594mb heights. Then look and compare that to the EURO 12Z's stronger 594 heights over E. Carolina beginning at 162 hr. through 186 hr.s. In spite of 594 heights waning at that point, I see no new weakness or directional flow change adequate enough to degradate the SE CONUS ridge that is in place. I guess we'll see if future EURO runs continue to build E. Coast heights or deepen some southwest reaching "grab n go" trough instead. So many other variables at play too like timing and location of actual genesis or a forward motion between now and then that's any bit faster than the forecast crawl. Anyway, just to highlight the game of inches at play though, take that same storm at perhaps 198hrs and place it just north of Haiti instead. Given the building ridge over Florida, that might just be the difference between a one-way trans-Atlantic cruise and potential Danielle favoring a two-day Lauderdale Pub-crawl/Vero Beach Outlet trip instead.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1563629164338548736

[wxman57]

NHC is gradually moving their "X" to the main feature that they had not identified yesterday. This system could be a TS when it nears the NE Caribbean islands next Friday. Most models indicate a grazing event with little or no impact, but nothing is certain. Models are also indicating that a cold front may move off the East U.S. Coast next Tuesday ahead of the possible storm in the Bahamas. That would provide a weakness for it to turn north. Southeast U.S. is definitely under the gun, though. I don't see this being a Gulf threat.

[LCfromFL]

Taking a closer look at the euro data from what i see the ridge is clearly protecting Florida in this case hence recurves on the eps. Path of least resistance is NE away from Florida. Could meander in the Bahamas like Dorian.

https://i.postimg.cc/SRfrJX1b/EFE3-F495-8278-469-C-9-AEB-9-ED893-B480-D1.jpg

I feel like the chance to hit Florida is always pretty low, but looking at past storms in this area at this timeframe, and even a week from now, we've had storms supposed to recurve go into the gulf, storms headed for the gulf suddenly recurve, and storms supposed to hit Florida stall or recurve slowly. The upper air forecasts past 5 days are just not reliable, so it's pure fantasy at this point. My bet IF this gets into the Bahamas is that it will be a nail biter until the last few days, similar to Dorian.

Dorian was such a nail-biter here in NE FL! My daughter's wedding was 9.1.19 and Dorian was NOT on the guest list! So many out-of-town guests decided not to make the trip (who could blame them with a Cat 5 storm breathing down on us?) So much uncertainty! Thankfully Dorian stayed away and we had some nice breezes (nothing too crazy) for the wedding.

[aspen]

This has 96 hours left to become a named storm before August ends up as an unprecedented (for a La Niña year) 0/0/0 and 0 ACE. Seeing how it’s improved in just half that time, a TS before 00z September 1st is possible. It has a good chance of shooting this season’s ACE up from absolutely pathetic to near-average for this time of year. A track like the Euro with development in 3-5 days could theoretically yield a 30-40+ ACE major.

[Sciencerocks]

[psyclone]

This looks like a systems likely to develop and perhaps significantly. Looks like a future hurricane. Hopefully we finally have some storms to track..

[tropicwatch]

It seems like the first part of the year they were quick to issue an Invest tag. Now it seems they are waiting a lot longer.

[Iceresistance]

Here's what we know about the models after the 12z Cycle.

Now that the CMC has jumped on board with the development of this system, it's now safe to say that there is complete model consistency with the development of this system into a Tropical Cyclone within the next 2-7 days
The general direction of the system will eventually start moving WNW from due West in 2-4 days, avoiding direct impact on the Leeward Islands

But here are the uncertainties with this system.

The Strength and intensity of this system, the 12z GFS model shows a weaker system compared to the Euro and ICON.
The strength of the Bermuda Ridge is a huge factor in the directional movement of the storm since a weaker system will curve around it, avoiding land completely while a much stronger storm will deviate further west, threatening landmasses such as the Bahamas, Florida, and possibly the gulf coast or the East Coast depending on where it will go.
The SE ridge may develop and force the storm to move away from it, avoiding impacts to Florida.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

How sure it will avoid any of the Leeward Islands? I think the area of Anguilla and Anegada could have impacts according to models today.

Direct impacts may be avoided unless the system refuses to start lifting more to the north.

[SFLcane]

Afternoon Eps shifted north might see op with a sharper recurve tonight.

[AutoPenalti]

Afternoon Eps shifted north might see op with a sharper recurve tonight.

Great news for SFL, not so much for others….

[kevin]

I know most (if not all) users here already know this, but just because the trend is more recurve-heavy now doesn't mean SFL or any area in particular is 'safe'. We don't even have an official invest yet, let alone a storm. Let's hope it becomes a fish storm like Sam, but at the same time prepare for the worst. It might sound a bit dramatic, but it's always better to be safe than sorry, especially during the climatological peak of hurricane season. If you haven't gotten your prep kits in order now is the time.

[Frank P]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/3848/C6ur0q.gif

Looking at that sat presentation the most impressive feature to me is the activity in the GOM. Haha… I love back yard systems!