2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

[NotSparta]

Michael Ventrice
@MJVentrice
The strong convectively coupled Kelvin wave that lit up the Pacific, spawning Tropical Storm Dalila, is now pushing across the Atlantic's Main Development Region. We'll have to monitor how this wave interacts with the West African Monsoon now.

Interesting that this strong CCKW only spawned a weak TS in the EPAC during July, which can often be a busy time (climo wise). TC activity is definitely low globally ATM, so other factors are obviously not that favorable; this strong wave didn't spark a huge EPAC outbreak. I wouldn't expect it to do much in the ATL either, since July is usually quiet there anyway. So factors like CCKWs are hardly a guarantee of TC activity. We have so much to learn

If TC activity is down globally, could this set us up for another season like 2013? I believe 2013 was also below average globally


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2017 was as well, so it can be either extreme

[NDG]

Michael Ventrice
@MJVentrice
The strong convectively coupled Kelvin wave that lit up the Pacific, spawning Tropical Storm Dalila, is now pushing across the Atlantic's Main Development Region. We'll have to monitor how this wave interacts with the West African Monsoon now.

Interesting that this strong CCKW only spawned a weak TS in the EPAC during July, which can often be a busy time (climo wise). TC activity is definitely low globally ATM, so other factors are obviously not that favorable; this strong wave didn't spark a huge EPAC outbreak. I wouldn't expect it to do much in the ATL either, since July is usually quiet there anyway. So factors like CCKWs are hardly a guarantee of TC activity. We have so much to learn

If TC activity is down globally, could this set us up for another season like 2013? I believe 2013 was also below average globally


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You and I are on the same page, I just mentioned 2013 at the EPAC Thread. Such a strong CCKW that supposedly has not been seen in years and barely a weak TS formed out of it.

[LarryWx]

Interesting that this strong CCKW only spawned a weak TS in the EPAC during July, which can often be a busy time (climo wise). TC activity is definitely low globally ATM, so other factors are obviously not that favorable; this strong wave didn't spark a huge EPAC outbreak. I wouldn't expect it to do much in the ATL either, since July is usually quiet there anyway. So factors like CCKWs are hardly a guarantee of TC activity. We have so much to learn

If TC activity is down globally, could this set us up for another season like 2013? I believe 2013 was also below average globally


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You and I are on the same page, I just mentioned 2013 at the EPAC Thread. Such a strong CCKW that supposedly has not been seen in years and barely a weak TS formed out of it.

Has anyone considered the possibility that strong CCKWs or even just CCKWs in general are overrated as far as how much more conducive they are to tropical development vs average? Has a study actually been done to determine how conducive they have been based on actual past cases?

[tarheelprogrammer]

Interesting that this strong CCKW only spawned a weak TS in the EPAC during July, which can often be a busy time (climo wise). TC activity is definitely low globally ATM, so other factors are obviously not that favorable; this strong wave didn't spark a huge EPAC outbreak. I wouldn't expect it to do much in the ATL either, since July is usually quiet there anyway. So factors like CCKWs are hardly a guarantee of TC activity. We have so much to learn

If TC activity is down globally, could this set us up for another season like 2013? I believe 2013 was also below average globally


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You and I are on the same page, I just mentioned 2013 at the EPAC Thread. Such a strong CCKW that supposedly has not been seen in years and barely a weak TS formed out of it.

Or it could end up like 2017 once again, where the Atlantic was the main active tropical region. Just a thought. I have a feeling it is 50/50 right now. The Atlantic will wake up soon.

[NDG]

If TC activity is down globally, could this set us up for another season like 2013? I believe 2013 was also below average globally


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

You and I are on the same page, I just mentioned 2013 at the EPAC Thread. Such a strong CCKW that supposedly has not been seen in years and barely a weak TS formed out of it.

Has anyone considered the possibility that strong CCKWs or even just CCKWs in general are overrated as far as how much more conducive they are to tropical development vs average? Has a study actually been done to determine how conducive they have been based on actual past cases?

Not that I have seen but I’m sure Micael Ventrice has something on it, I’m sure he will argue that TS Dalila would had not formed had it not been for this strong CCKW, lol.

[CyclonicFury]

Even if 2019 were a down year globally, it's very unlikely the Atlantic would be as weak as it was in 2013. 14 named storms, 2 hurricanes and 0 major hurricanes was about as weak as you can get for an Atlantic hurricane season.

Globally down years usually have one of two outcomes: either the Atlantic takes over as the dominant basin (like 2010 or 2017), or activity remains below average in all basins. It's going to be interesting to see what happens.

[Siker]

If TC activity is down globally, could this set us up for another season like 2013? I believe 2013 was also below average globally


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

You and I are on the same page, I just mentioned 2013 at the EPAC Thread. Such a strong CCKW that supposedly has not been seen in years and barely a weak TS formed out of it.

Has anyone considered the possibility that strong CCKWs or even just CCKWs in general are overrated as far as how much more conducive they are to tropical development vs average? Has a study actually been done to determine how conducive they have been based on actual past cases?

Not sure if this is exactly what you’re looking for but this is one of several papers by Carl Schreck (Ventrice has several as well) that highlight the changes in frequency of cyclogenesis before and after a CCKW.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.117 ... -15-0111.1

[Hurricaneman]

Even if 2019 were a down year globally, it's very unlikely the Atlantic would be as weak as it was in 2013. 14 named storms, 2 hurricanes and 0 major hurricanes was about as weak as you can get for an Atlantic hurricane season.

Globally down years usually have one of two outcomes: either the Atlantic takes over as the dominant basin (like 2010 or 2017), or activity remains below average in all basins. It's going to be interesting to see what happens.

The one thing about 2013 was the global tropics were pretty inert but Haiyan happened in the WPAC and was probably one of the strongest systems ever to form with the old adage it only takes one, even if the Atlantic is dead doesn’t mean that a cat 5 cant happen, just look at 1992 with Andrew

[TheStormExpert]

Even I was thinking 2013 as a potential analog season globally several weeks ago. Also, there is a TON of Mid-Level Dry Air dominating the Atlantic at the moment, similar to 2013.

[SFLcane]

Dead??? What exactly is dead? Its July 25th folks! Your looking for capeverde hurricanes developing across the MDR wait another 25-30 days till the REAL season starts.

[CyclonicFury]

:uarrow: Even I was thinking 2013 as a potential analog season globally several weeks ago. Also, there is a TON of Mid-Level Dry Air dominating the Atlantic at the moment, similar to 2013.

You always think 2013 is an analog.

Also, mid-level dry air was more prevalent in 2012 and 2016 than 2013 during July, which were both active, albeit subtropics centered seasons for the most part.

[CyclonicFury]

Dead??? What exactly is dead? Its July 25th folks! Your looking for capeverde hurricanes developing across the MDR wait another 25-30 days till the REAL season starts.

I think we're talking about how dead the EPAC and WPAC have been this month, which makes us wonder if a globally down year is possible. Sometimes the Atlantic takes over and gets really active when that's the case, other times it remains fairly quiet.

[NotSparta]

I can't believe 2013 is seriously being considered an analog for this season. That's like considering 2005 as an analog solely because world tropics are behaving similar to that yr

[TheStormExpert]

:uarrow: Even I was thinking 2013 as a potential analog season globally several weeks ago. Also, there is a TON of Mid-Level Dry Air dominating the Atlantic at the moment, similar to 2013.

You always think 2013 is an analog.

Also, mid-level dry air was more prevalent in 2012 and 2016 than 2013 during July, which were both active, albeit subtropics centered seasons for the most part.

No I don’t always think 2013 as an analog each year.

[Dylan]

2013 & 2019 aren't even close from an SSTA standpoint. Overall base state is much better positioned for a burst in ASO activity in 2019 vs 2013. 2004 is probably the closest at the moment.

[CyclonicFury]

2013 & 2019 aren't even close from an SSTA standpoint. Overall base state is much better positioned for a burst in ASO activity in 2019 vs 2013.

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2013/anomnight.7.22.2013.gif
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2019/anomnight.7.22.2019.gif

2013 was markedly different with the THC crash. The far North Atlantic cooled, while the subtropical Atlantic north of 30°N warmed. The subtropical warm pool is farther south this year.

[Hurricaneman]

The thing to watch for is whether or not we have a more favorable Atlantic by at least the last week of August because looking at the models it seems like the GFS is showing stronger tropical waves by the mid part of the runs as well as the Euro and here’s the thing that’s interesting is that the waves seem to be stronger by the run which means we may have something to watch sooner than we think

And I was using an example that even if it’s not that active something can sneak through but as of now I concur 2013 is a bad analog but 2017 may be one of the top ones just slightly less active

[Chris90]

Just throwing this out there, but looking at tropical tidbits, using analogs since 1966 based on 30 day CDAS SSTA analysis, the top analog right now is 2004. It's followed by 1967, 2018, 2014, and coming in 5th is 2005.
I think we're only a couple weeks away from lift off.

[TorSkk]

I can't believe 2013 is seriously being considered an analog for this season. That's like considering 2005 as an analog solely because world tropics are behaving similar to that yr

This post is an essential component of the hurricane season flow chart:
A.) pre season hype and excitement
B.) an early season slop storm
C.) a broad moat that separates the slop storm season from the "real" season during which little or nothing happens (you are here now)... AKA season cancel season. It is during this time that season cancel posts will begin to appear...innocuous at first before full blown panic establishes itself (wait for the 2013 comparisons to be trotted out...they're coming).
D.) the "real" hurricane season manifests. It is during this time that those using 2013 analogs will flip to 2005 or 2017 analogs. This typically begins around the time of Dr Gray's infamous bell ringing on August 20.
I have consistently been a believer in an active season but am bearish between now and mid august...leaving us a solid month of season cancel conditions. The above referenced pattern is predictable every year because history does repeat itself. We must crawl before we can walk. Meanwhile conditions in the Atlantic look more favorable today than they did at the beginning of the season. Keep your eye on the field of play and not the scoreboard...the latter is meaningless at this juncture.

[NDG]

Dead??? What exactly is dead? Its July 25th folks! Your looking for capeverde hurricanes developing across the MDR wait another 25-30 days till the REAL season starts.

We are talking globally not just about the Atlantic. The IO is the only basin above average so far this year, all the other basins are below average, the Atlantic still has the benefit of doubt that it will get active starting next month.