2014 WPAC Season

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The basin is alive again; with tropical storm Fengshen and a lot of phantom storms and typhoons in the making including a powerful dateline-crosser from the CPAC. IT will be a huge ACE contributor as it remains a powerful typhoon (above cat 3) for at least 6 days to 1 week or more. I hope these storms pan out.

[euro6208]

GFS forecasting 2 CPAC twin hurricanes moving into the WPAC...Damn that el nino...

First hurricane peaks at 941 mb and other 983 mb!

[euro6208]

Record quiet spell ends in Western Pacific

A remarkable month-long hiatus in tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific finally came to an end on Sunday, when Tropical Storm Fengshen formed a few hundred miles south of Japan. Prior to Fengshen, the last named storm to form in the Western Pacific was Tropical Storm Nakri, which formed on July 29 (according the Japan Meteorological Agency (10 minute), the official agency responsible for typhoon warnings) or August 2 (according the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center.) Typhoon Genevieve, which crossed the Dateline into the Western Pacific on August 7, originated in the Eastern Pacific, so doesn't count as a named storm originating in the Western Pacific. According to the archive of Japan Meteorological Agency (10 minute) Western Pacific typhoons kept at Digital Typhoon, August 2014 marks the first August since records began in 1951 that a tropical storm did not form in the Western Pacific. During the period 1951 - 2013, an average of 5.6 named storms formed in the basin during August. The previous record low for August was two named storms, which occurred in both 1979 and 1980. The lack of activity this August in the Northwest Pacific was due, in part, to an unfavorable phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days. The MJO caused dry, sinking air to predominate in the Western Pacific during August. Thanks to a busy July, the Western Pacific has seen 14 named storms so far this year, which is only one behind average.

[tolakram]

Record quiet spell ends in Western Pacific

Are these your words? If not can you post a source or link to the source please? Thanks!

[euro6208]

Record quiet spell ends in Western Pacific

Are these your words? If not can you post a source or link to the source please? Thanks!

I thought i provided the link. guess my red wine kicked in...

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2790

Jeff Masters' Wunderblog...

[Ntxw]

Well, by the end of the week the WPAC is going back into supressed phase of Kelvin wave again. Looks pretty strong so it may keep things below average for a time yet again. The recent CCKW is moving out, into the EPAC and intensifying.

I have to say I'm a little surprised of how this is happening.

[euro6208]

Well, by the end of the week the WPAC is going back into supressed phase of Kelvin wave again. Looks pretty strong so it may keep things below average for a time yet again. The recent CCKW is moving out, into the EPAC and intensifying.

I have to say I'm a little surprised of how this is happening.

The WPAC just has to endure the unfavorable MJO/Kelvin wave couplet for about a week maybe week and half more. The first couple weeks of September will drastically change as things reverse to very favorable. EPAC should slow down while Atlantic will feel what the WPAC is feeling now.

That was your comment back in August 23...

Wow amazing how short lived that MJO/Kelvin was and we're back into unfavorable, i wonder why...like it doesn't want to leave this place...

We managed to develop only two tropical cyclones, Tropical Storm Fengshen and Depression 14W.

[Ntxw]

That was your comment back in August 23...

Wow amazing how short lived that MJO/Kelvin was and we're back into unfavorable, i wonder why...like it doesn't want to leave this place...

We managed to develop only two tropical cyclones, Tropical Storm Fengshen and Depression 14W.

It's very surprising to me. I haven't followed the WPAC long enough to understand how the atmosphere works over there so I can't say it's going to shut down for a week or two, but the KW won't be there to help. How are WPAC seasons when El Nino turns on in the fall? Does the activity shift east in the CPAC instead of near 120E? I know deeper into the season the Maritime continent (Philippines/Indonesia) regions start experiencing extreme drought during El nino so maybe there is a correlation there.

Another question, is there a relationship between -SOI and WPAC activity? We seem to have seen the very quiet WPAC in August coincide with the longest -SOI stretch, it weakened recently but is tanking again. It's something with the Nino kicking on, just can't seem to understand it yet.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

GFS consistent with a strong typhoon making landfall over Luzon within the next 5 days; it is from the disturbance 94W.

[dexterlabio]

It's very surprising to me. I haven't followed the WPAC long enough to understand how the atmosphere works over there so I can't say it's going to shut down for a week or two, but the KW won't be there to help. How are WPAC seasons when El Nino turns on in the fall? Does the activity shift east in the CPAC instead of near 120E? I know deeper into the season the Maritime continent (Philippines/Indonesia) regions start experiencing extreme drought during El nino so maybe there is a correlation there.

Another question, is there a relationship between -SOI and WPAC activity? We seem to have seen the very quiet WPAC in August coincide with the longest -SOI stretch, it weakened recently but is tanking again. It's something with the Nino kicking on, just can't seem to understand it yet.

Actually, WPAC goes bonkers from Fall to Winter during El Nino years. In the last 14 years, we had EN episodes in 2002, 2004, 2006, and 2009. The last quarter of those years featured the most number of significant cyclones. It's interesting to note that there were more typhoons and supertyphoons that formed from September-December than June-August (Summer) period in one of those years. Take 2009 as an example.


Tropical cyclone formation shifts more to the east the stronger the El Nino episode is (ex. 1997)...but not too far east that most of the activity shifts to CPAC.


It's interesting that you mentioned about the drought in the Philippines/Maritime Continent during an El Nino. I don't know if others are aware than an El Nino year in SE Asia could see more threat from cyclones than a La Nina year....yet, large areas suffer from drought. Based on my own observation here in the Philippines, drought begins when the El Nino reaches its peak strength (usually during Northern Hemisphere Winter), and it persists all the way into Spring and early Summer. I mean, record rainfall can still happen even with a developing El Nino episode...but when El Nino conditions are well in place, it will be hard to receive even a raindrop.

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

After *15W- Kalmaegi*, GFS and EURO sees a quiet September ahead

CMC ONLY TWO Tropical Cyclones...One weakling east of the Marianas the other Typhoon Fung-Wong near the Dateline...

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

It's at that time of year again when the philippines gets hit by multiple storms in a row...Models suggesting another TC developing in the Philippine Sea and heading west...Still far out so we'll see...

[euro6208]

Threat next 2 weeks...

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

Kammuri raking the Northern Marianas and Japan yet again...

[euro6208]

More landfalls...

[euro6208]

EURO with Typhoon Kammuri...



GFS much weaker though...



Phanfone and Vongfong

[euro6208]

CMC develops Kammuri very near the Equator and deepens it...Also shows developing Phanfone and Vongfong...