Strong wave near Leeward Islands - Is Invest 97L

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xcool22

#501 Postby xcool22 » Sun Jul 18, 2010 6:08 pm

000
NOUS42 KNHC 181515
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT SUN 18 JULY 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z JULY 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-048

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 21.0N 71.5W AT 20/1800Z.


BEGIN
6-HRLY FIXES AT 21/0600Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS
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Re:

#502 Postby jlauderdal » Sun Jul 18, 2010 6:17 pm

Gustywind wrote:Hey peeps do you tkink that NHC will upgrade it to ORANGE code in the next TWO?


No
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#503 Postby lester » Sun Jul 18, 2010 6:19 pm

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18z old gfs at 192 hours
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#504 Postby Gustywind » Sun Jul 18, 2010 6:20 pm

LATEST
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Re: Strong wave over Leeward Islands - Code Yellow

#505 Postby srainhoutx » Sun Jul 18, 2010 6:24 pm

Busy night across the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico...

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Re:

#506 Postby Brent » Sun Jul 18, 2010 6:26 pm

Gustywind wrote:Hey peeps do you tkink that NHC will upgrade it to ORANGE code in the next TWO?


No. 20% is my guess.
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#507 Postby xcool22 » Sun Jul 18, 2010 6:27 pm

2 AOI
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Re:

#508 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 18, 2010 6:28 pm

xcool22 wrote:2 AOI


What do you mean?
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Re: Re:

#509 Postby Gustywind » Sun Jul 18, 2010 6:29 pm

Brent wrote:
Gustywind wrote:Hey peeps do you tkink that NHC will upgrade it to ORANGE code in the next TWO?


No. 20% is my guess.

Thanks for you best guess :)
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Re:

#510 Postby wxman57 » Sun Jul 18, 2010 6:29 pm

xcool22 wrote:wxman57 .how good DGEX model ????


Well, if it's an extension of the NAM/ETA, then there's your answer.
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#511 Postby Gustywind » Sun Jul 18, 2010 6:31 pm

Hey Cycloneye what is your best guess for the next TWO, orange code or not?
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#512 Postby lester » Sun Jul 18, 2010 6:33 pm

A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH SURFACE
PRESSURES HAVE FALLEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE AREA...ANY DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS DISTURBANCE IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...HAITI...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
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#513 Postby xcool22 » Sun Jul 18, 2010 6:33 pm

wxman57 thanks
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Re:

#514 Postby wxman57 » Sun Jul 18, 2010 6:35 pm

Gustywind wrote:Hey Cycloneye what is your best guess for the next TWO, orange code or not?


Down to 10% now. It's just not going to do anything in the next 48 hrs.
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Re:

#515 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 18, 2010 6:36 pm

Gustywind wrote:Hey Cycloneye what is your best guess for the next TWO, orange code or not?


I was going to answer but the TWO came early. :) My answer was yellow.
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Re: Re:

#516 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Jul 18, 2010 6:37 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Gustywind wrote:Hey Cycloneye what is your best guess for the next TWO, orange code or not?


Down to 10% now. It's just not going to do anything in the next 48 hrs.


It's always been 10 percent I believe
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#517 Postby Andrew92 » Sun Jul 18, 2010 6:39 pm

When does the next Euro model come out?

-Andrew92
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Re: Strong wave near Leeward Islands - Code Yellow

#518 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Jul 18, 2010 6:48 pm

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Re: Strong wave near Leeward Islands - Code Yellow

#519 Postby lebron23 » Sun Jul 18, 2010 6:53 pm

Yes it always has been 10 percent
The next euro comes out around 2AM CDT i believe
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Re: Re:

#520 Postby Gustywind » Sun Jul 18, 2010 7:07 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Gustywind wrote:Hey Cycloneye what is your best guess for the next TWO, orange code or not?


I was going to answer but the TWO came early. :) My answer was yellow.

Ok thanks no problem :wink: . I appreciate your sincerity and your best guess as usual :)
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