Invest 99L E of Lesser Antilles,Comments,Sat Pics,Etc #3

[MortisFL]

I think you've said "the next 24 hrs" for like the past 5 days.

[storms in NC]

I see no red though. Is recon still expected to fly out today?

This is all it said will they No but here was what they said

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL
BE AVAILABLE TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...IF
NECESSARY.

[Cyclenall]

Just becuase it "looks" like a TD,doesn't mean it is one.

Bingo, I think we have a winner. Now if only this can be told to every member of the human race on earth.

[Thunder44]

I see no red though. Is recon still expected to fly out today?

This is all it said will they No but here was what they said

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL
BE AVAILABLE TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...IF
NECESSARY.

The plane is in St. Croix already. My guess is that they can sent it out whenever they want as long as they can get the crew ready.

[curtadams]

17:45 UTC - there is now a band of low clouds near 15N 58W on RGB moving briskly ENE towards the burst of fresh convection near the center. Based on indications of W winds and how much it's improved since being already a borderline TD 8 hours ago, I think it's Chris.

[Air Force Met]

Definition of a TD from Dictionary.com: a cyclone in a tropical region that is more intense than a disturbance but less than a storm, with wind speeds of 38 mph or less

and here is their definition of a tropical cyclone: A violent storm originating over tropical or subtropical waters, characterized by violent rainstorms and high-velocity cyclonic winds

I think this storm meets both of those criteria, and even if it isn't a TD at the moment (because of possibly no LLC), I feel strongly that it will become one within 24 hrs. (if dry air, and shear can not destroy it before hand).

You might want to try the NHC definition...
TC=A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center.

A definition from anyone other than the NHC really doesn't count...does it? Did you look up their definition and not like it?

As far as development of this wave, if you will go back to the #2 thread, you will see I gave it 36-48 hours (this was on Saturday) before I thought we would see somethig begin to happen with it...and that it would need to be closely watched after that.

It has been 48 hours now...and we see what is happening. I aslo said that I felt this was our best chance so for this year for classical wave to TD development. HOwever, that does not chance the fact that it is NOT a TD yet. It also doesn't change the fact that this does not even look as good as 1/10th of the TD's that have been. Does it look better than some TD's that are on their last legs after already developing? Sure. At their beginnings? No way.

It doesn't even look as good as many tropical waves I've seen.

[trendal]

Buoy 41100 looks like it's almost smack-dab in the middle of all that convection:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.p ... t=M&tz=EST

Pressure has dropped 2.2mb over the past couple hours.

[AJC3]

17:45 UTC - there is now a band of low clouds near 15N 58W on RGB moving briskly ENE towards the burst of fresh convection near the center. Based on indications of W winds and how much it's improved since being already a borderline TD 8 hours ago, I think it's Chris.

It may appear to be moving ENE toward the center, but that's because your eyes are not fixed at a single point, but are instead following the vortex as it moves. If you zoom in to a LALO intersection, the eastward component to the apparent motion disappears.

I agree that it is getting closer to closing off, I just don't think it's quite there yet.