Low Pressure in the Central Atlantic (Is Invest 91L)

[pgoss11]

https://i.imgur.com/OM1a4zt.gif

That’s a pretty sharp right hand turn

[skyline385]

If this recurves like the Euro is showing then the GFS got it right way ahead of everyone else even with the Gulf cane.

[cane5]

This does not look good ..too close to South Florida.

That’s the craziest graphic I’ve seen doesn’t look real !

[AtlanticWind]

We have to remember this is modeling 9 to 10 days out, just not that reliable that far out.

This is a very valid point. Way too early in the game to know what may or may not happen in 10 days.

I would even say this is not the way it will likely unfold , there will likely be changes when
this forms.

[SFLcane]

Lol nearly impossible feat to keep a ridge holding for that long now a days. Shields up!

[Blown Away]

No way abrupt stop and NE turn at that latitude.

[SFLcane]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/FFdHckCk/floop-ecmwf-full-2022082712-sfcwind-mslp-watl.gif [/url]

No way abrupt stop and NE turn at that latitude.

Certainly possible ridge is protecting florida right there and path of lease resistance is NE.

[skyline385]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/FFdHckCk/floop-ecmwf-full-2022082712-sfcwind-mslp-watl.gif [/url]

No way abrupt stop and NE turn at that latitude.

GFS has been showing this for several runs now and both the GEFS and EPS had several members doing a sharp turn around the Bahamas. It is still too early but is most definitely a possibility with a ridge budling up over Florida.

[InfernoFlameCat]

https://i.imgur.com/OM1a4zt.gif

How common do storms actually do that, where they recurve at such an acute angle?

Dorian did something very similar. So it isn't all that uncommon. Then again, Dorian was quite the unrealistic storm.

[toad strangler]

I barely trust 500mb maps out 72 hours let alone Alice In Wonderland timeframes of plus 200

[AtlanticWind]

Just too many variables at this point, when does the system form, where does it form, how quickly it
intensifies.
Also you can see the differences in every model run on the upper air pattern at these long ranges.

It is fun to watch the modeling out in 5+ days but should be taken with a grain of salt.

Honesty this could turn out to sea well before bahamas or continue west thru the straits of florida
into the gulf and all the possibilities between .

[Blown Away]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/FFdHckCk/floop-ecmwf-full-2022082712-sfcwind-mslp-watl.gif [/url]

No way abrupt stop and NE turn at that latitude.

GFS has been showing this for several runs now and both the GEFS and EPS had several members doing a sharp turn around the Bahamas. It is still too early but is most definitely a possibility with a ridge budling up over Florida.

https://i.imgur.com/TShXVj3.png

Weather patterns get very complex in the W Atl during Sept as we transition from summer to fall. Stalling, looping, and sharp NE turns not uncommon in long range modeling with W moving systems into the Bahamas area. As we move closer in time we will see stronger HP and W movement or a smoother recurve in the models, not stop then NE.

[Iceresistance]

Here's what we know about the models after the 12z Cycle.

Now that the CMC has jumped on board with the development of this system, it's now safe to say that there is complete model consistency with the development of this system into a Tropical Cyclone within the next 2-7 days
The general direction of the system will eventually start moving WNW from due West in 2-4 days, avoiding direct impact on the Leeward Islands

But here are the uncertainties with this system.

The Strength and intensity of this system, the 12z GFS model shows a weaker system compared to the Euro and ICON.
The strength of the Bermuda Ridge is a huge factor in the directional movement of the storm since a weaker system will curve around it, avoiding land completely while a much stronger storm will deviate further west, threatening landmasses such as the Bahamas, Florida, and possibly the gulf coast or the East Coast depending on where it will go.
The SE ridge may develop and force the storm to move away from it, avoiding impacts to Florida.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[gatorcane]

JMA also has the ridge building SW over Florida. With the Euro and CMC also showing this it certainly is possible:

[skyline385]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/FFdHckCk/floop-ecmwf-full-2022082712-sfcwind-mslp-watl.gif [/url]

No way abrupt stop and NE turn at that latitude.

GFS has been showing this for several runs now and both the GEFS and EPS had several members doing a sharp turn around the Bahamas. It is still too early but is most definitely a possibility with a ridge budling up over Florida.

https://i.imgur.com/TShXVj3.png

Weather patterns get very complex in the W Atl during Sept as we transition from summer to fall. Stalling, looping, and sharp NE turns not uncommon in long range modeling with W moving systems into the Bahamas area. As we move closer in time we will see stronger HP and W movement or a smoother recurve in the models, not stop then NE.

Gert 1981 - very similar path to what the Euro is predicting and around the same time frame

[chaser1]

12Z Euro still steadfast on it's forecast to deepen the disturbance (presently around 40W) as it approaches and moves just north of P.R. Only difference between new new 12Z rolling out now and last night's 0Z is a slightly deeper storm with indication of even higher 500mb heights building along the Central US seaboard. At 192 hr. motion remains slowwww and gradually become more westerly with pressures down to 990 mb.

[blp]

Lol nearly impossible feat to keep a ridge holding for that long now a days. Shields up!

Of course a ridge can hold that long. Remember IKE in 08 that ridge drove IKE in same area west then SW through Cuba all the way to Texas. It's about the orientation and timing. If the ridge does not shift SW this thing would go through Florida and deep into the Gulf.

You know the drill this far out is it's a crap shoot. I will tell you one thing there ain't a strong trough anywhere on any of the models so the margins are small for this to easily flip next run.

[Blown Away]

GFS has been showing this for several runs now and both the GEFS and EPS had several members doing a sharp turn around the Bahamas. It is still too early but is most definitely a possibility with a ridge budling up over Florida.

https://i.imgur.com/TShXVj3.png

Weather patterns get very complex in the W Atl during Sept as we transition from summer to fall. Stalling, looping, and sharp NE turns not uncommon in long range modeling with W moving systems into the Bahamas area. As we move closer in time we will see stronger HP and W movement or a smoother recurve in the models, not stop then NE.

Gert 1981 - very similar path to what the Euro is predicting and around the same time frame

https://i.imgur.com/N9hCYc5.png

[SFLcane]

Lol nearly impossible feat to keep a ridge holding for that long now a days. Shields up!

Of course a ridge can hold that long. Remember IKE in 08 that ridge drove IKE in same area west then SW through Cuba all the way to Texas. It's about the orientation and timing. If the ridge does not shift SW this thing would go through Florida and deep into the Gulf.

You know the drill this far out is it's a crap shoot. I will tell you one thing there ain't a strong trough anywhere on any of the models so the margins are small for this to easily flip next run.

I here ya! Just the usual these days it’s almost like climate change has changed something around Florida not allowing these storms to make landfall. Just one theory. Nearly 2 weeks out so lots can and will change.

[skyline385]

Still should be waiting for an actual center to form but it does look like EPS has a pretty significant shift northwards, barely any members near Cuba.





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