2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

[galaxy401]

I mean if the Euro calls a dry Atlantic every year, eventually it will get it right...whether it's this year or 10 years from now.

[Shell Mound]

This thread has been with bearish posts lately and here is one more.

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1153465932330631168

There are 3 guarantees in life: death, taxes, and the Euro showing a dry tropical ATL and Africa

And the year JB calls for a dead season is the year a major hurricane hits New England—if history is anything to go by.

[crownweather]

This thread has been with bearish posts lately and here is one more.

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1153465932330631168

There are 3 guarantees in life: death, taxes, and the Euro showing a dry tropical ATL and Africa

And the year JB calls for a dead season is the year a major hurricane hits New England—if history is anything to go by.

The scary part is that you may not be too far off. Analog years such as 1991 and 1955 have been showing up quite a bit with either breaking our record high temperatures or tying them. Also, 1953 is popped up a lot as a analog over the past several months & a different Hurricane Carol almost did what 1954's Hurricane Carol actually did. The 1953 Carol's path tracked about 100-200 miles east of Cape Cod before tracking into the Gulf of Maine and the Bay of Fundy.

[jconsor]

I did some research which shows that nearly all (13 of 14) seasons which saw a hurricane landfall in New England and/or Long Island featured below to slightly above normal ACE in the Atlantic. The only exception was the hyperactive 1893 season. See below:

In other words, New England hurricanes can occur in seasons which otherwise have little activity (especially in the tropics). Further, they seem to occur preferentially in seasons that are not your classic very active ones like 1933, 1950, 1964, 2004, 2005, 2010, 2017, etc.,

Year (month) - Cat - Level of Atl activity, ACE

1858 (Sep) - Cat 1 - Below normal, 45
1869 (Sep) - Cat 3 - Below normal, 51
1869 (Oct) - Cat 2
1893 (Aug) - Cat 1 - Hyperactive, 231
1894 (Oct) - Cat 1 - Slightly above normal, 135
1896 (Sep) - Cat 1 - Slightly above normal, 136
1934 (Sep) - Cat 1 - Near normal, 79
1938 (Sep) - Cat 3 - Near normal, 78
1944 (Sep) - Cat 2 - Near normal, 104
1954 (Aug) Carol - Cat 3 - Near normal, 111
1954 (Sep) Edna - Cat 2
1960 (Sep) Donna- Cat 2 - Near normal, 73
1976 (Jul) Belle - Cat 1 - Near normal, 84
1985 (Sep) Gloria - Cat 2 - Near normal, 88
1991 (Aug) Bob - Cat 2 - Below normal, 36
2012 (Oct) Sandy - Cat 2 - Slightly above normal, 133

[toad strangler]

I did some research which shows that nearly all (13 of 14) seasons which saw a hurricane landfall in New England and/or Long Island featured below to slightly above normal ACE in the Atlantic. The only exception was the hyperactive 1893 season. See below:

In other words, New England hurricanes can occur in seasons which otherwise have little activity (especially in the tropics). Further, they seem to occur preferentially in seasons that are not your classic very active ones like 1933, 1950, 1964, 2004, 2005, 2010, 2017, etc.,

Year (month) - Cat - Level of Atl activity, ACE

1858 (Sep) - Cat 1 - Below normal, 45
1869 (Sep) - Cat 3 - Below normal, 51
1869 (Oct) - Cat 2
1893 (Aug) - Cat 1 - Hyperactive, 231
1894 (Oct) - Cat 1 - Slightly above normal, 135
1896 (Sep) - Cat 1 - Slightly above normal, 136
1934 (Sep) - Cat 1 - Near normal, 79
1938 (Sep) - Cat 3 - Near normal, 78
1944 (Sep) - Cat 2 - Near normal, 104
1954 (Aug) Carol - Cat 3 - Near normal, 111
1954 (Sep) Edna - Cat 2
1960 (Sep) Donna- Cat 2 - Near normal, 73
1976 (Jul) Belle - Cat 1 - Near normal, 84
1985 (Sep) Gloria - Cat 2 - Near normal, 88
1991 (Aug) Bob - Cat 2 - Below normal, 36
2012 (Oct) Sandy - Cat 2 - Slightly above normal, 133

I wish we had a thousand years of data! When you sit back and look at that list, you realize how small of a period that is relative to climo.

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1153694850262474753

[CyclonicFury]

Just because the Atlantic has sinking motion does NOT mean this season will be dead. The 10 most active seasons on record, when averaged out, had +VP200 anomalies over the Atlantic. Africa and the IO is much more important.
 https://twitter.com/wxtrackercody/status/1153663037624201216

[NDG]

 https://twitter.com/DCAreaWx/status/1153704929426587651

[CyclonicFury]

https://twitter.com/DCAreaWx/status/1153704929426587651

Last year the base state in the Atlantic was so hostile it likely needed a big MJO pulse to get going.

This year, the SST profile is much more +AMO like and ENSO is cooling, so I think the MJO won't be as important.

[StruThiO]

I think the lid comes off in August and the basin again surprises many people this season

[Kingarabian]

My preseason prediction was near average, El Nino or no El Nino.

[jconsor]

Nice thread here on possible analogs in the most recent -AMO era to this year's sinking air over MDR which ended up less active than normal, and others which showed a closer to neutral atmospheric ENSO signal and ended up with close to normal activity.

I personally am hesitant to use most possible analogs in the most recent -AMO era due to much cooler SSTs and less supportive base state.

Another factor that makes me hesistant to use analogs from 1970-1994 is that a strong W African monsoon (which is starting to get underway this year) can often be the "tipping point" to favor more activity in a year with otherwise relatively marginal conditions for TC genesis. See https://www2.cgd.ucar.edu/sites/default/files/2-900.pdf for excellent research by Dr. Andreas Fink on this phenomenon. The 1970-1994 -AMO era coincided with long term cycle of much weaker than normal W Afr monsoon. However if I were to use such analogs, 1985 and 1980 would be among the top ones.

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1153652986087952384

[Shell Mound]

I did some research which shows that nearly all (13 of 14) seasons which saw a hurricane landfall in New England and/or Long Island featured below to slightly above normal ACE in the Atlantic. The only exception was the hyperactive 1893 season. ...

Source
Interestingly, according to the Kaplan Extended SST V2, ASO 1893 featured a similar SST configuration (second EOF +AMO) to what we see currently.

[SFLcane]

I don't think i can remember seeing so many different opinions even from pro mets on how this season will shape up. I will say this one can't judge a season but what has taken place in june or july even the first week or so of august and expect to know what the rest of the season holds. Things can change in a heart beat all you need is a 4-6 week window with unfavorable steering currents and we have problems. The huge sal outbreaks in july we make such big deal out of are VERY normal and don't mean anything. All you can do is be ready

[jconsor]

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/dc/1893_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map.png/600px-1893_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map.png
Source
Interestingly, according to the Kaplan Extended SST V2, ASO 1893 featured a similar SST configuration (second EOF +AMO) to what we see currently.

Interesting find! However, note that 1893 was a moderate to strong La Nina year - on par with 1998-99: https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble- ... index.html
Also according to ERSST, 1893 did see a second EOF +AMO which eventually became a first EOF +AMO by Oct, but the main diff. vs. this year is the cooler than normal SST anom in the western and central Subtropical Atlantic.

Another great site for viewing reanalysis data, which takes less time to load than ESRL is: https://climatereanalyzer.org/reanalysis/monthly_maps/

[gatorcane]

Is it me or does Phil Klotzbach seem to always highlight the negative factors against Atlantic development?

[CyclonicFury]

Is it me or does Phil Klotzbach seem to always highlight the negative factors against Atlantic development?

Ever since the 2013 forecast bust he's forecasted very conservatively. He based a lot of his 2014-18 forecasts on his AMO index which was negative, and thought the active era was over which doesn't seem to be the case.

He also uses the ECMWF for his ENSO forecasts, which has been consistently too warm the past few years. In addition, he does not consider the West African Monsoon in his forecasts.

[cycloneye]

Michael Ventrice
@MJVentrice
The strong convectively coupled Kelvin wave that lit up the Pacific, spawning Tropical Storm Dalila, is now pushing across the Atlantic's Main Development Region. We'll have to monitor how this wave interacts with the West African Monsoon now.

[Emmett_Brown]

Michael Ventrice
@MJVentrice
The strong convectively coupled Kelvin wave that lit up the Pacific, spawning Tropical Storm Dalila, is now pushing across the Atlantic's Main Development Region. We'll have to monitor how this wave interacts with the West African Monsoon now.

Interesting that this strong CCKW only spawned a weak TS in the EPAC during July, which can often be a busy time (climo wise). TC activity is definitely low globally ATM, so other factors are obviously not that favorable; this strong wave didn't spark a huge EPAC outbreak. I wouldn't expect it to do much in the ATL either, since July is usually quiet there anyway. So factors like CCKWs are hardly a guarantee of TC activity. We have so much to learn

[WeatherEmperor]

Michael Ventrice
@MJVentrice
The strong convectively coupled Kelvin wave that lit up the Pacific, spawning Tropical Storm Dalila, is now pushing across the Atlantic's Main Development Region. We'll have to monitor how this wave interacts with the West African Monsoon now.

Interesting that this strong CCKW only spawned a weak TS in the EPAC during July, which can often be a busy time (climo wise). TC activity is definitely low globally ATM, so other factors are obviously not that favorable; this strong wave didn't spark a huge EPAC outbreak. I wouldn't expect it to do much in the ATL either, since July is usually quiet there anyway. So factors like CCKWs are hardly a guarantee of TC activity. We have so much to learn

If TC activity is down globally, could this set us up for another season like 2013? I believe 2013 was also below average globally


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