2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[bamajammer4eva]

Models in image at 180 hrs NAVGEM, GFS, GEFS

[GCANE]

150 Hours out

[GCANE]

Boundary and Mid layers are juiced at 156 hrs.
Looks like it may kickoff towers from a shear axis / PV streamer.
Will have to see if and how they develop over water.
If GFS is correct, its my hunch a "MCS / tower-development" algo could have been added to the model.

[northjaxpro]

Good post GCANE

06Z GFS remaining consistent with a weak Beryl making landfall near Cedar Key in 252 hours (June 13)

Several runs in a row in which the GFS keeps the cyclone broad and weak. Just another rainmaker for the Florida peninsula.

[NDG]

Another possible GFS vs. Euro event, is going to be a long season

[LarryWx]

6Z GEFS remains consistent with recent days' GEFS runs in having some of its members with genesis on 6/10. That's now within 7 days. IF this isn't a phantom, I'd think we'd start to see the CMC and Euro start showing at least hints of something soon. But even their ensembles are still quiet then. Opinions?

[crownweather]

6Z GEFS remains consistent with recent days' GEFS runs in having some of its members with genesis on 6/10. That's now within 7 days. IF this isn't a phantom, I'd think we'd start to see the CMC and Euro start showing at least hints of something soon. But even their ensembles are still quiet then. Opinions?

Noticed that a couple of Canadian ensemble members forecasts tropical development in the southern Gulf of Mexico around June 17. Other than that, this is a GFS show for now.

[Dean4Storms]

The 00z ECM EPS Probability is now showing up to a 10% chance of TC genesis in the SW Carib. between the 10th to the 12th.

[Alyono]

12Z ICON has an interesting thing forming in the Gulf around Wednesday

[HURRICANELONNY]

Extended forecast...
the long range models are diverging late this week into next
weekend, as the GFS model is trying to bring an area of deep
moisture into South Florida from the Caribbean Sea, while the
European model (ecmwf) model is keeping the deep moisture down in the Caribbean
Sea. Therefore, at this time will keep a typical Summer weather
pattern in place over South Florida for late this week into next
weekend with scattered to numerous showers and some thunderstorms
each afternoon especially over the interior and West Coast Metro
areas.
Yup ndg. Gonna be a long season

[TheStormExpert]

What exactly is the ICON model, never of it before it was added to Tropical Tidbits recently.

[Aric Dunn]

There is still an awful lot of convection in the NW carrib with the euro run after run persisting from about june 8 to the end of the run around june 12.

I think the models that dont show development are having issues with the shear. I mean look at the Euro simulated IR. this is a classic monsoon trough setup with the outflow/shear from the east pac system enhancing convection the western carrib. it would be highly unlikely something does not try to get going with all the convection in the NW carrib for that many days.

[TheStormExpert]

The models that don’t develop anything are more than likely right. I mean look at that big hurricane just sitting to the west of Mexico and Central America in the Eastern Pacific. Something like that would cause some significant shear to setup in the Caribbean.

[Aric Dunn]

:uarrow: The models that don’t develop anything are more than likely right. I mean look at that big hurricane just sitting to the west of Mexico and Central America in the Eastern Pacific. Something like that would cause some significant shear to setup in the Caribbean.

SHear is what is needed in a lot of cases like this take Alberto, for instance, shear is what kept it alive and got it going. shear can be good at first.

[Aric Dunn]

Current Surface analysis has the monsoon trough well to the south. however according to all the models the trough begins to lift north and also on the map are a couple of tropical waves that may play a role in the GFS development. the first one will approach the NW carrib and set off the heavy convection that will persist for many days. the second tropical wave will arrive around the 10 to 12th right when the GFS starts the development.

it is possible that the other models do not have a well defined wave coming into the NW carrib at the same time as the GFS. or could be that the GFS is over doing the second tropical wave...

but I imagine once convection begins to really increase in the NW carrib in the next few days we may see some of the other models/members flipping back and forth with development.

[Aric Dunn]

12z CMC is showing something that starts to get going in the SW carrib as the monsoon trough lifts north then move over land. .. cmc is now hinting at something..

[wxman22]

Yes, I noticed the same thing.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z GEFS continues the several days of GEFS runs with genesis on 6/10-1 in the W Car that then moves into the E GOM US coast 6/11-13 as a TD-TS for about half its members.

[MississippiWx]

Pattern in the long range looks very El-nino-ish. Active EPac with loads of shear in the Gulf of Mexico and throughout the Caribbean. Upward motion will be favored from the Central Pacific to the EPac. To me, this does not scream Western Caribbean development for the next two weeks at least. GFS could be jumping the gun by a week or two. The end of June might be more favorable if the MJO is able to squeak into the Western portion of the basin. We’ll see!

[Aric Dunn]

Pattern in the long range looks very El-nino-ish. Active EPac with loads of shear in the Gulf of Mexico and throughout the Caribbean. Upward motion will be favored from the Central Pacific to the EPac. To me, this does not scream Western Caribbean development for the next two weeks at least. GFS could be jumping the gun by a week or two. The end of June might be more favorable if the MJO is able to squeak into the Western portion of the basin. We’ll see!

??