Trough of low pressure in Western Caribbean (Is Invest 95L)

[SouthFLTropics]

MOST. BIZARRE. GFS. RUN. EVER.

I call bogus after 210hrs.

Of course it is... most likely. But fun to watch nonetheless.

[gatorcane]

Model run hall of fame for sure

[TheStormExpert]

MOST. BIZARRE. GFS. RUN. EVER.

I call bogus after 210hrs.

Of course it is... most likely. But fun to watch nonetheless.

It’s now smoking whatever the GFS-Para is.

[SFLcane]

MOST. BIZARRE. GFS. RUN. EVER.

I call bogus after 210hrs.

Of course it is... most likely. But fun to watch nonetheless.

Just one problem that Florida landfall was almost at 200hrs.

[TheStormExpert]

Model run hall of fame for sure

https://i.postimg.cc/TwGpycFt/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh168-384.gif

Would be a nightmare scenario for East-Central Florida.

[LarryWx]

[SFLcane]

https://i.imgur.com/WuOnd4x.png

Ouch!

[toad strangler]

I just can’t believe we’re going on 15 years since the last hurricane to affect parts of metropolitan SE Florida.

That is obviously a good thing. But I worry that the next time a storm actually does hit SE Florida... What will the public do? I'm not in Florida so I wouldn't know for sure, but 15 years is enough time where many people would not remember Wilma. So I would think they wouldnt care and wouldn't prepare like they should because they don't really know what it's like

That’s why I’m pointing it out. The complacency is there! Especially after close calls like Matthew and Dorian. Fortunately I was here for both 2004 and 2005, though I was a kid but I still remember them all too well.

I disagree. Don't you remember the MASS EXODUS for Irma that clogged all roads N and left people stranded for days? The vast majority of those people know we got LUCKY. There is no complacency in FL above the normal threshold you would expect.

[TheStormExpert]

At this point I’m just going to nowcast. Seeing that the only two models that develop this are the GFS and the GFS-P. And they’re both inconsistently all over the place with track and intensity.

2020 am I right!?

[ElectricStorm]

https://i.imgur.com/WuOnd4x.png

You get a storm and you get a storm and everyone gets a storm! Lol
In all seriousness though that is quite the

[GeneratorPower]

https://i.imgur.com/WuOnd4x.png

This graphic is the real story here.

[SouthFLTropics]

Today's ensemble map is brought to you by Crayola. Making the Tropics beautiful.

[TheStormExpert]

That is obviously a good thing. But I worry that the next time a storm actually does hit SE Florida... What will the public do? I'm not in Florida so I wouldn't know for sure, but 15 years is enough time where many people would not remember Wilma. So I would think they wouldnt care and wouldn't prepare like they should because they don't really know what it's like

That’s why I’m pointing it out. The complacency is there! Especially after close calls like Matthew and Dorian. Fortunately I was here for both 2004 and 2005, though I was a kid but I still remember them all too well.

I disagree. Don't you remember the MASS EXODUS for Irma that clogged all roads N and left people stranded for days? The vast majority of those people know we got LUCKY. There is no complacency in FL above the normal threshold you would expect.

That’s why I didn’t mention Irma! But even it wasn’t as bad as originally being forecasted.

[toad strangler]

That’s why I’m pointing it out. The complacency is there! Especially after close calls like Matthew and Dorian. Fortunately I was here for both 2004 and 2005, though I was a kid but I still remember them all too well.

I disagree. Don't you remember the MASS EXODUS for Irma that clogged all roads N and left people stranded for days? The vast majority of those people know we got LUCKY. There is no complacency in FL above the normal threshold you would expect.

That’s why I didn’t mention Irma! But even it wasn’t as bad as originally being forecasted.

The POINT is that there is no high level of complacency and that mass exodus was proof 101.

[TheStormExpert]

https://i.imgur.com/WuOnd4x.png

So what is the MSLP of the green circles?

[cycloneye]

8 PM.

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form early next week
over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of
this system will be possible through the middle of next week while
it moves slowly over the southwestern or western Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[TheStormExpert]

I disagree. Don't you remember the MASS EXODUS for Irma that clogged all roads N and left people stranded for days? The vast majority of those people know we got LUCKY. There is no complacency in FL above the normal threshold you would expect.

That’s why I didn’t mention Irma! But even it wasn’t as bad as originally being forecasted.

The POINT is that there is no high level of complacency and that mass exodus was proof 101.

I still have friends that are like they all miss us, especially those that aren’t into weather like me.

[LarryWx]

https://i.imgur.com/WuOnd4x.png

So what is the MSLP of the green circles?

1004, 1000, 992

[SFLcane]

8 PM.

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form early next week
over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of
this system will be possible through the middle of next week while
it moves slowly over the southwestern or western Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Check the wording.

[Spacecoast]

Fay 2.0