2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

[CyclonicFury]

Bleak picture from JB.

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1152192047790600192

It seems like JB is always calling for a dead MDR with "in close" development. His forecast was also based off El Niño which is no longer likely to be in place for the peak of the season. The mid-levels in the MDR have been anomalously dry, but it remains to be seen how much this suppresses activity during the peak of the season.

[cycloneye]

Increasing a little his August numbers? The July ones were 14/6/2.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1152276164473282560

[blp]

Can't see anything getting going for a while out of the MDR. Ridiculous amount of dry mid level air.

[Kingarabian]

Bleak picture from JB.

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1152192047790600192

It seems like JB is always calling for a dead MDR with "in close" development. His forecast was also based off El Niño which is no longer likely to be in place for the peak of the season. The mid-levels in the MDR have been anomalously dry, but it remains to be seen how much this suppresses activity during the peak of the season.

He goes by with whatever the ECMWF has.

[TheStormExpert]

Can't see anything getting going for a while out of the MDR. Ridiculous amount of dry mid level air.

https://i.imgur.com/VcotV31.gif

What’s the cause for such dryness in the mid-levels, SAL? Weren’t we just talking how moist and active the AEW were?

[TheStormExpert]

Bleak picture from JB.

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1152192047790600192

It seems like JB is always calling for a dead MDR with "in close" development. His forecast was also based off El Niño which is no longer likely to be in place for the peak of the season. The mid-levels in the MDR have been anomalously dry, but it remains to be seen how much this suppresses activity during the peak of the season.

He goes by with whatever the ECMWF has.

The Euro may be onto something with it’s bleak Atlantic look for once if this mid-level dryness doesn’t disappear fast.

[NotSparta]

It seems like JB is always calling for a dead MDR with "in close" development. His forecast was also based off El Niño which is no longer likely to be in place for the peak of the season. The mid-levels in the MDR have been anomalously dry, but it remains to be seen how much this suppresses activity during the peak of the season.

He goes by with whatever the ECMWF has.

The Euro may be onto something with it’s bleak Atlantic look for once if this mid-level dryness doesn’t disappear fast.

If it is it's another case of being right for the wrong reasons, as it's probably underestimating Africa again

[gatorcane]

One thing is for sure - use caution judging peak Atlantic hurricane season months around this time. Usually the Atlantic around this time is about as bad as it gets for genesis (and I have seen years far worse at this time than what I see now). But it is easy to try and extrapolate based on current conditions because the 384 hour GFS shows zip or the long-range Euro shows high pressures and sinking air across the basin for the next several months. Just go back and look at the discussions in this thread for the previous few years around this time, years which ended up turning quite active and high impact later in the season, As usually is the case things change quickly around mid August. I noticed the CFS starts to reduce the shear around that time across the entire basin including the Caribbean.

[N2FSU]

Good points gatorcane. I have been on this board 16 years and it’s the same every year. Around mid to late July some people start talking about a slow season because not much has happened yet, and current conditions are highly unfavorable and don’t look to be changing anytime soon. Then around mid August it’s literally like someone flipped a switch and the models start popping, and actual conditions follow suit. I predict in 3, maybe as long as 4 weeks, everyone will be singing a different tune around here.

[USTropics]

I believe we'll see the mid-level atmosphere reset in a few weeks (or at least improve); the latest MJO forecast shows quite an impressive pulse passing through the Caribbean/Atlantic in 2-weeks that will act to promote rising air and convective pulses. We've just had an extensive SAL outbreak and the suppressed phase of the MJO (which promotes sinking, dry SAL air from the upper-levels to the mid-levels).

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1152532245443436545

[chaser1]

Nice; Let start naming them too......

[Hurricaneman]

With this record breaking CCKW the first week of August could pop like a cork and could be extremely active depending on Atlantic shear and if the SAL relents some

[CyclonicFury]

The biggest wild card of this season, in my opinion, is how much large scale subsidence/dry mid-level air/low instability affects activity. SSTs should definitely be warm enough to support TCG in the MDR by mid-late August. It appears increasingly likely ENSO will be neutral during the peak of the season, and the atmosphere has already responded somewhat, with shear in the Caribbean and MDR having been slightly below normal this month. If the Atlantic gets a big MJO pulse during the peak of the season like last year, this season could end up well above average. If not, it could even be slightly below average.

Large scale-subsidence can slow down activity, but it usually doesn't stop activity during the peak of the season. I'm not expecting a super active August due to the subsidence, but that doesn't mean we won't see a few TCs form. This may end up being a backloaded season once again if the velocity potential anomaly forecasts are correct.

[Shell Mound]

Perhaps 1991 is a potentially viable analog for 2019. The mid-level pattern in the Pacific from 20°S to 10°N and the Atlantic from 10°N to 35°N was strikingly similar in AMJ 1991 and AMJ 2019. Additionally, the tracks of ANDREA and BARRY seemingly correlate best with the general steering pattern in 1991. Given the much warmer MDR and colder tropical Pacific thus far in 2019, vs. 1991, perhaps this season will feature similar clusters of activity, but with much higher levels of activity, especially hurricanes and major hurricanes, since conditions are going to be much more conducive this season vs. 1991. Therefore, the Bay of Campeche, north-central Gulf Coast, and Mid-Atlantic/New England would face the highest risk in 2019.

[CyclonicFury]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1153368493737144320




But...
 https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1153373606975590400



 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1153375550330658818



 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1153375193995390977

[cycloneye]

This thread has been with bearish posts lately and here is one more.

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1153465932330631168

[NotSparta]

This thread has been with bearish posts lately and here is one more.

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1153465932330631168

There are 3 guarantees in life: death, taxes, and the Euro showing a dry tropical ATL and Africa

[storminabox]

This thread has been with bearish posts lately and here is one more.

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1153465932330631168

The Euro calls for this every year. I wouldn’t put any value in this at this range

[NDG]

It never fails, the Euro always seems to forecast worst conditions for the Atlantic than what actually comes out to be.