Weak low in NE Gulf of Mexico: (Is Invest 95L)

[NCSTORMMAN]

Nothing to see. I see some type of spin in the center of all the convection but to be honest if the CoC is really that close to land it is not going to do much unless it starts moving SSW and that is not happening according to the experts.

[northjaxpro]

I am aware of that NCSTORMMAN. But, it is not about tropical development at this juncture. The big story is all of that copius amount of moisture hanging back into the GOM, which is going to move across already water-logged areas tomorrow into Monday across Florida peninsula.

[NCSTORMMAN]

I am aware of that NCSTORMMAN. But, it is not about development. The big story is all of tha copius amount of moisture which is going to move across already water-logged areas tomorrow into Monday across Florida peninsula.

No doubt but as far as development it is done. Wasn't meaning to offend anyone just stating how I felt (which is up and down constantly on development lol). I am off to bed. The system would be beneficial if it did develop into a weak system because it might move out then and leave Florida for good.

[northjaxpro]

Have a good night!

[Hammy]

This system certainly tried to get it's act together at the last minute, but there's a rapidly approaching wall of shear and very dry air about to move over the formative circulation, so it's basically run out of time and is about to run out of water anyway within 6-12 hours.

[caneman]

Indeed probably too little too late but there are some pretty good pressure falls. Now down to 1009.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=PACF1

[caneman]

25 mph winds at Clearwater Beach and 30 mph in gusts.

[caneman]

I guess I'm the only one awake. Really looks like this thing is getting it's act together great sat. Presentation but I guess it's too little too late.

[northjaxpro]

The Low in Apalachee Bay is coming ashore now. Pressure did fall to 1009 mb as caneman indicated. Yeah, this Low possibly could have been classified as a TD if it had another 6-12 hours over water. Nevertheless, ridiculously amounts of moisture hanging back across the GOM will come across the peninsula today into Monday. I am not kidding in saying that some folks may need boats to get around in portions of the Big Bend and West-Central peninsula. The heavy rains also will spread northeastward toward Northeast Florida the next 48 hours. Flooding is already ongoing in these areas and more heavy rains the next 48 hours is just potentially going to be extremely disastrious in these areas for sure.

There will be a brief respite in this pattern as the Low Pressure moves off northeast the next 48 hours, it will drag all of this moisture out with it. A ridge of High Pressure will build in beginning Tuesday from the Western Atlantic over the peninsula. This will return us back to our normal, typical seabreeze induced thunderstorm regime until Friday. Unfortunately, another trough is forecast to enter the SE U.S. and GOM region by next weekend, bringing back potentially this same pattern we are dealing with now.

[Hurricaneman]

I wouldn't be so quick to write anything off as there seems to be an area of at least a MLC 150 miles west of Tampa with possibly a new low forming there

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[Frank P]

I wouldn't be so quick to write anything off as there seems to be an area of at least a MLC 150 miles west of Tampa with possibly a new low forming there

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Yeah, sat image more impressive this am since I've been watching the area in the gulf... Still is something to watch, if it can maintain throughout the day... Bones can sit around and watch for now, however nothing noted in the bouys to suggest anything happening any time soon, if ever... Just some convection in the brewing process...

[northjaxpro]

Good morning Hurricaneman. Yeah, that is a large complex out in the Eastern GOM. That area really expanded overnight and I guess you can't rule out another Low re-developing. Shear is still present in the NE GOM, though not as crippling as it has been all this past week.

But, Hurricaneman, we shall see. We have seen several Low Pressure waves develop along this pesky trough, so if seeing another wave develop would not be surprising at all.

[northjaxpro]

Checking NWS Ruskin long range radar and satellite composites and to follow up on what Hurricaneman mentioned, there does seem to be some mid-level rotation in that large complex about 100-150 miles west-southwest of the Tampa Bay area. There is no evident surface reflection yet, but I tend to agree that this needs to be watched today and tonight.

[Dean4Storms]

The shear is still very high, you'd have better chances of sticking bones back into a Filet of Fish than a TC form out of this!

Watch me eat my words!

[TheStormExpert]

Was noticing that complex earlier and thought it might be worth monitoring. Though this pesky relentless shear just won't ease up one bit!

Wonder if this will be the case here and off the SE U.S. Coast the rest of the season, or will we finally become more favorable in these regions as time goes on?

[TheStormExpert]

The shear is still very high, you'd have better chances of sticking bones back into a Filet of Fish than a TC form out of this!

Watch me eat my words!

Be careful what you say the tropics have a way of surprising us all!

[caneman]

Some areas here have picked up 12 inches of rain already. They are forecasting another 3 to 6 inches. Ive.lived here 35 years and never remember anything like it. If you get a chance check some of the news sites here f for the tampa bay area to see photos. I hate El Nino for us it means copious rains and cold winters.

[TheStormExpert]

Some areas here have picked up 12 inches of rain already. They are forecasting another 3 to 6 inches. Ive.lived here 35 years and never remember anything like it. If you get a chance check some of the news sites here f for the tampa bay area to see photos. I hate El Nino for us it means copious rains and cold winters.

Typically El Niños do not have as much control over the weather here in Florida during the summer as they do during the winter.

But yeah, unfortunately expect a wetter and at least cooler than normal winter here in Florida.

[northjaxpro]

Well caneman, most can relate to extreme weather events. It goes to show you don't have to have a classified tropical cyclone to provide extreme flooding events. The synoptic pattern can be one in which a very stagnant, moist pattern can just sit in place and converge over the same areas over and over again. Unfortunately, this pesky trough axis has indeed done just what I have described in a huge way. Plus, the event is still ongoing. I pray for all being affected by the floods down state in the Tampa metro area and the Big Bend region.

[NDG]

I personally do not think anything will come out of that convection west of Tampa, surface trough is now way north of it, nothing but westerly winds underneath the weak mid level vorticity.
Models show surface high pressure ridge moving back in before the next trough comes down next weekend. Upper level northerly winds are forecasted to increase once again across the eastern GOM.