2015 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

[Sanibel]

Beginning to look like a below average season.

[Hammy]

Beginning to look like a below average season.

I assumed this was a foregone conclusion since last year due to El Nino.

[MetroMike]

Season canceled? What a f---bore oh well.

[Steve]

Beginning to look like a below average season.

I assumed this was a foregone conclusion since last year due to El Nino.

Yeah, but it's always tough to say. For instance, 2002 got to the L's or M's. And a lot of people thought this will be a similar year to that though the El Nino looks way stronger in 2015. What I can't get around is the lack of much of anything anomalous in the CFSV2 1 month or 3 month (with and without embedded skill) forecasts. Seems to be an indication of some slightly more precipitation off the GA coast in the SW Atlantic, but there just isn't any one super wet area. The SE shows biased wet for the late fall and winter months, but I think you'd expect that from an El Nino year. But there just isn't anything jumping out yet that screams anything like Mississippi better watch out in September or Florida in October or whatever. It's not really offering any hints of excessive rainfall in the SE US that I could find.

[LarryWx]

Regarding geneses in mid to late Aug that resulted in a mid to late Aug H hit on the CONUS during the 17 strengthening El Nino's since 1877 that eventually reached the strong category, three of the 17 seasons had hits:

1888: cat 3 hit on S FL followed by a cat 2 LA hit:
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

1918: cat 1 hit on NC:
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

1991: Bob was a cat 2 hit on E New England:
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

[ninel conde]

The atlantic desert:

http://maps.weather.com/images/sat/tropsat_720x486.jpg

Driest place on earth?

[Hammy]

The atlantic desert:

http://maps.weather.com/images/sat/tropsat_720x486.jpg

Driest place on earth?

That's a mighty exaggeration you're making...

As an aside, tropical tidbits maps haven't updated at all since 18z on the 6th.

[ninel conde]

The atlantic desert:

http://maps.weather.com/images/sat/tropsat_720x486.jpg

Driest place on earth?

That's a mighty exaggeration you're making...

As an aside, tropical tidbits maps haven't updated at all since 18z on the 6th.

maybe not. hard to find an equally large area with less rain in it.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

The atlantic desert:

http://maps.weather.com/images/sat/tropsat_720x486.jpg

Driest place on earth?

Wow, haven't looked at satellite all week. Didn't realize things were that bad and dry. Looks like middle of january out there. But have no fear business is about to pick up once September rolls around.

[tolakram]

The atlantic desert:

http://maps.weather.com/images/sat/tropsat_720x486.jpg

Driest place on earth?

That's a mighty exaggeration you're making...

As an aside, tropical tidbits maps haven't updated at all since 18z on the 6th.

Looks like the Sahara has more clouds. There is no denying the Atlantic is unusually dry IMO. Look at the GFS prediction of mid level humidity to see how dry it's predicting.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2015080806&field=500mb+Relative+Humidity&hour=Animation

[ninel conde]

too bad the carib drought shows no sign of breaking

[Sanibel]

More front-like winter direction rain in the Gulf in Florida.

[Andrew92]

Regarding geneses in mid to late Aug that resulted in a mid to late Aug H hit on the CONUS during the 17 strengthening El Nino's since 1877 that eventually reached the strong category, three of the 17 seasons had hits:

1888: cat 3 hit on S FL followed by a cat 2 LA hit:
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

1918: cat 1 hit on NC:
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

1991: Bob was a cat 2 hit on E New England:
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

What about later months, namely September? Or Gulf strikes in Mexico?

-Andrew92

[NDG]

July was a very quiet month in the Atlantic compared to July 1997, last strong/super El Nino event. Because the only area which saw a moist environment most of the month had strong northerly shear from the death ridge over the south central US. Notice how much drier the MDR was during July of this year compared to '97.
Also much stronger UL level winds over the Caribbean. Seems like this year the shear was quicker to take control than in '97.
1997 saw a total of 8 named storms, I bet that this year we will fall well short of that number, probably 2-3 named storms more this season if the dry conditions continue over the MDR and strong shear continues over most of the Atlantic Basin.

[ninel conde]

conditions are as bad as they can get.

[tolakram]

The tropical atlantic is in a drought, which I suppose can happen just like it can happen over land. It seems to me that until this 'drought' ends the MDR will be mostly dead. I'm not so sure conditions are as bad as they can get because I don't know how bad they can get.

[TheStormExpert]

The tropical atlantic is in a drought, which I suppose can happen just like it can happen over land. It seems to me that until this 'drought' ends the MDR will be mostly dead. I'm not so sure conditions are as bad as they can get because I don't know how bad they can get.

When comparing this season to other dead seasons conditions kind of do seem like they are as bad as they can get.

[ninel conde]

The tropical atlantic is in a drought, which I suppose can happen just like it can happen over land. It seems to me that until this 'drought' ends the MDR will be mostly dead. I'm not so sure conditions are as bad as they can get because I don't know how bad they can get.

I suppose conditions could be worse, but only if the atlantic completely dried up,

[ninel conde]

The tropical atlantic is in a drought, which I suppose can happen just like it can happen over land. It seems to me that until this 'drought' ends the MDR will be mostly dead. I'm not so sure conditions are as bad as they can get because I don't know how bad they can get.

When comparing this season to other dead seasons conditions kind of do seem like they are as bad as they can get.

in other dead seasons you would still often see waves with moisture make it all the way across. not this season.

[Alyono]

seeing signs of a major flip coming for 2016