Invest 90L,W.Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #8

[rockyman]

That comma shape would normally indicate a better-organized system...but all the latest date indicates that the low level center is well-removed from the comma...so the system really isn't that much better organized at the moment (IMO).

But how come it seems that all the energy keeps inching NE towards South Florida?

that energy is riding the trough to the ENE...and leaving the low level center behind...the only reason it's not dying out is the upper level divergent flow

[wxmann_91]

That comma shape would normally indicate a better-organized system...but all the latest date indicates that the low level center is well-removed from the comma...so the system really isn't that much better organized at the moment (IMO).

But how come it seems that all the energy keeps inching NE towards South Florida?

The outflow is being sheared into southeast Florida.

[gatorcane]

you cannot deny the fact that South Florida is going to get a deluge or rain and "feeder bands" once the develop. It clearly is going to effect South Florida - look at where it started: the Yucatan and now it is shifted this far ENE. I highly doubt it will get any farther west than where it is.

We have yet to get into the summer time regime - and the Bermuda High is very weak.

[wx247]

I wouldn't deny the fact that Florida is going to see some rain. Whether they get the tropical system (if one even forms) remains to be seen.

[ROCK]

EWG good point....Light shear and still interacting with the trough. Key is not to focus on the blob but the low level clouds that will give away the LLC. Hard to do at night though on the vis.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Invest 90L doesn't look so healty tonight.

[mtm4319]

00Z GFS has been run through 72 hours... fairly weak still:

[hiflyer]

May I suggest that now that Cuban Radar is in pretty good shape...compared to last year....that those sites might be of interest?

http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?T ... B1=RADARES

[Weatherfreak000]

This map always shows weird results..

[CHRISTY]

guys the models earlier were pointing at the panhandle now the shifted a bit south...maybe in responce to the imcoming trough the GFS been forcasting.

[Evil Jeremy]

Invest 90L doesn't look so healty tonight.

its looking better than ever! if your talking about the convection loss, its part of the formation stage.

[CHRISTY]

this just came to my thoughts maybe this will turn out to be like a irene type senerio for southflorida.

[rockyman]

The trough axis is now off the coast of the Mid-Atlantic, and is more than 10 degrees latitude away from 90L...plus the ridge over Arkansas is sliding east and connecting up with the Bermuda high...If this storm doesn't move quickly, the Florida door is going to slam shut and this system will be a problem for the central Gulf Coast.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

[Scorpion]

Invest 90L doesn't look so healty tonight.

You're kidding me right?

[gatorcane]

The trough axis is now off the coast of the Mid-Atlantic, and is more than 10 degrees latitude away from 90L...plus the ridge over Arkansas is sliding east and connecting up with the Bermuda high...If this storm doesn't move quickly, the Florida door is going to slam shut and this system will be a problem for the central Gulf Coast.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

ummmm...no the trough will dig down and erode this. It has Florida written all over it

[Scorpion]

The trough axis is now off the coast of the Mid-Atlantic, and is more than 10 degrees latitude away from 90L...plus the ridge over Arkansas is sliding east and connecting up with the Bermuda high...If this storm doesn't move quickly, the Florida door is going to slam shut and this system will be a problem for the central Gulf Coast.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

I certainly believe that this may indeed occur. The question is... will the result be a stronger or weaker storm?

[rockyman]

Thanks, boca_chris, for your comments...except for the ummmmm...

Could you provide links to models showing a trough digging down...Thanks!

[CHRISTY]

so far in 2006 we have strong troughs coming down into the gulf bringing down bown dry air like the one in place in the gulf right now.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The trough axis is now off the coast of the Mid-Atlantic, and is more than 10 degrees latitude away from 90L...plus the ridge over Arkansas is sliding east and connecting up with the Bermuda high...If this storm doesn't move quickly, the Florida door is going to slam shut and this system will be a problem for the central Gulf Coast.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

I certainly believe that this may indeed occur. The question is... will the result be a stronger or weaker storm?

I think so too. I am getting very worried that this may surprise everyone by being a central gulf hit and not a Florida hit.

[gatorcane]

Thanks, boca_chris, for your comments...except for the ummmmm...

Could you provide links to models showing a trough digging down...Thanks!

Why are all the models forecasting a NE turn then?