93L Invest

[NastyCat4]

This is a RAIN event---will the blob watchers please take a chill pill. We're getting rain from this in Florida as we speak. It will rain all weekend--not a tropical cyclone, but a major rain event.

[southerngreen]

our local mets are saying "nothing, really nothing. a low - that's all"
it doesn't seem like it will have much time to get organized, but it sure will make a mess.

OFFICIALLY: Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
AXNT20 KNHC 062346
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU OCT 06 2005



GULF OF MEXICO...
A COMPLEX PATTERN REMAINS OVER THE GULF WATERS AND IS CAUSING
WET WEATHER EXTENDING FROM SRN MEXICO TO W CUBA THEN NWD ACROSS
MOST OF FLORIDA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED ALONG
88W...WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER LOW NEAR 28N88W...AND IS DRAWING
EXTENSIVE TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM CENTRAL AMERICA NWD INTO THE SE
USA. THE REMNANTS OF T.D. TAMMY ARE NEAR 30N86W AND ARE PART OF
A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS S OF 27N84.5W 22N88W THEN INTO
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A PAIR OF 1004 MB LOWS ARE NOTED ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES NEAR 22N88W AND 24.5N86W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE NEAR AND E OF THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF E OF
85W AND ALSO N OF 29N E OF 89W. MUCH DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED IN
BEHIND THE TROUGH LEAVING MOSTLY FAIR SKIES OVER THE CENTRAL/W
GULF EXCEPT CLOSE TO THE REMNANTS OF TAMMY. ANOTHER AREA OF
CONCERN IS A 1003 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR THE W TIP OF CUBA NEAR
23N83W. ALTHOUGH THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING SOME STRONG
CONVECTION OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND WILL LIKELY DRAG THIS
MOISTURE NWD TOWARDS FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...CONDITIONS
NO LONGER LOOK AS FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
WITH STRONG SLY SHEAR. PLENTY OF TSTMS ARE HEADED NORTHWARD FROM
E OF THIS LOW ACROSS W CUBA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TOWARD
THE FL PENINSULA. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST WET CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY FOR FLORIDA.. W CUBA INTO CENTRAL AMERICA FOR THE SEVERAL
DAYS DUE TO THE SLOW EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.

CARIBBEAN...
THE LOW NEAR THE W TIP OF CUBA AND THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO IS INDUCING A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NEAR AND W OF THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS FROM 17.5N-22N BETWEEN 81W-86W...SOMEWHAT IN THE
STRUCTURE OF A BROKEN SQUALL LINE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
ALSO EXTENDS SE OF THIS AREA FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 78W-82W WITH
OTHER TSTMS OVER E CUBA. ALL THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING FED BY A
DEEP POOL OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM DEEP-LAYERED SW WINDS ALL
THE WAY FROM THE EPAC THROUGHOUT THE NW CARIBBEAN WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS EXTEND FARTHER E OVER HISPANIOLA IN
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...BUT MOST OF THE AREA S OF 14N
IS UNDER MAINLY FAIR SKIES AND DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR. THE SW SIDE
OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND A WEAK LOW-LEVEL TROUGH FROM NEAR 15N61W
NEAR DOMINICA WNW TO 16N66W ARE COMBINING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
TSTMS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 13N-16.5N BETWEEN 60W-64W.
THERE MAY EVEN BE A WEAK LOW ON THAT TROUGH NEAR 15.5N62W BUT
NLY SHEAR IS TOO STRONG TO ALLOW TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.
WET WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN ABOUT IN PLACE FOR TOMORROW THEN BEGIN
TO SHIFT TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS & PUERTO RICO BY LATE SAT.

[artist]

Nastcat4 - pretty ~nasty~ weren't ya??

[fci]

Nastcat4 - pretty ~nasty~ weren't ya??

Not that we weren't warned by the name "NASTYcat4"

[artist]

hehe - you caught me there fci! should have read NastYcat4!
Man - trying to be funny and I blew it! lol

[artist]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kbyx.shtml

are those bands I see beginning to come off of it??

[skysummit]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kbyx.shtml

are those bands I see beginning to come off of it??

There's definately rotation still down there.

[artist]

water vapor I can't see anything this morning! but that radar definately seems to be showing some signs of rotation - glad you see it too sky!

looks like the dry air is being forced out of the gulf as well.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastnhewv.html

animate it and you can see it just going poof! lol

[skysummit]

Artist...here's what I see south of Florida:

[artist]

I think we are seeing the same - here is my rendition! lol



sorry it's so small - they wouldn't let me upload anything larger!

the red dashed circle is the center I see

[skysummit]

LOL...yea, we're seeing the samething. The left overs from Tammy are looking good too on radar i the gulf.

[artist]

I'll have to go look at her too! lol
THEN it's time to hit the hay! Too many long nights around here ya know?? Will be interesting to see what is there when I get back up! Good night everyone (or should I say mornin' all??)

[skysummit]

I'll have to go look at her too! lol
THEN it's time to hit the hay! Too many long nights around here ya know?? Will be interesting to see what is there when I get back up! Good night everyone (or should I say mornin' all??)

LOL...I know what you mean. I gotta get out of here too. If only I can find something to pry this mouse out of my hand. g'night.

[TampaFl]

Slight rotation showing up on NWS KYW radar just west southwest of KYW. Thoughts & comments welcomed.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/byx_NCR_lp.shtml


Robert

[ishop]

I am just a learner/lurker but I do see something.

I can't seem to go to sleep tonight4 :31 AM Eastern time and I am sitting here trying to look at something that makes sense.

Not liking this..

[hiflyer]

Slight rotation showing up on NWS KYW radar just west southwest of KYW. Thoughts & comments welcomed.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/byx_NCR_lp.shtml


Robert

Folks at NWS EYW watching it also and just put this out

FLORIDA KEYS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
437 AM EDT FRI OCT 7 2005

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
THE KBYX RADAR DETECTS A CYCLONIC ROTATION OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF
THE MARQUESAS KEYS AND DRY TORTUGAS...LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ONLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE TRAVERSED NORTHWARD
THROUGH OUR ENTIRE AREA. MEANWHILE...GOES-12 WATER VAPOR VAPOR
IMAGERY DEPICTS A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO REACHING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...WITH A WELL PRONOUNCED
SHORT WAVE BOTTOMING OUT JUST SOUTH OF PANAMA CITY. FURTHERMORE...A
DRY SLOT IS PENETRATING INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO
AND WESTERN CUBA. ACROSS THE MARINE DISTRICT...C-MAN STATION
PLATFORMS INDICATE SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
NEAR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

.FORECAST...
THE AFOREMENTIONED (1ST PARAGRAPH) MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...BEFORE EXITING
OFFSHORE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SATURDAY.

[Trader Ron]

This is a RAIN event---will the blob watchers please take a chill pill. We're getting rain from this in Florida as we speak. It will rain all weekend--not a tropical cyclone, but a major rain event.

I agree 100%. Satellite pictures don't tell the whole story. I was sitting on my lanai last night..it was DEAD CALM. This morning, we are having a bit of rain, and it's DEAD CALM. I'm sorry, but 93L has been blown out of proportion.

Just my 2 cents.

[HurricaneQueen]

Must be nice sitting around on your lanai all the time!!! Some of us have to work (as I write this from my office )

To get back on topic you have to admit we have had A LOT of rain in the past 48 hours with some sunshine thrown in. I heard we had 2-3 inches between 5-7:30 this morning and Vanderbilt Beach (my area) had up to 5 inches since midnight. (at 7:45). It has been raining steadily since then but no wind at all.

So you were correct a couple days ago-a rain maker.

Lynn

[Trader Ron]

Must be nice sitting around on your lanai all the time!!! Some of us have to work (as I write this from my office )

To get back on topic you have to admit we have had A LOT of rain in the past 48 hours with some sunshine thrown in. I heard we had 2-3 inches between 5-7:30 this morning and Vanderbilt Beach (my area) had up to 5 inches since midnight. (at 7:45). It has been raining steadily since then but no wind at all.

So you were correct a couple days ago-a rain maker.

Lynn

Ahem ! I sit on my Lanai at night.

WOW... you have gotten that much rain? We haven't, and i'm only 3 miles from you.

[LSue]

I'd say we've gotten at least 2 inches of rain and probably more since about 2 am. The lakes in our complex are VERY full and we have lots of ponding on our roads. Lots of fun taking my daughter to school this morning...noticed many "lakes" on the sports fields too.

Conditions are supossed to improve by tomorrow...they better as my husband and I will be transporting 16 middle schoolers to my daughter's birthday party (pizza one place, dessert at another!)

What were we thinking??

Stay dry y'all!

Linda