Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico (Is Invest 92L)

[SFLcane]

18z EPS continues to look messy for Florida... Several hurricane members like on the 12z.

On its way to a hurricane before FL there.. euro control

[Michele B]

18z GFS

https://i.imgur.com/smcfAFF.gif

YIKES!!

This looks like coming close to Charley or Ian track.

[Michele B]

What will we do come December? Happy hour just isn't the same for Cold Fronts or squall lines

We be moving out of Florida!

[jlauderdal]

18z EPS continues to look messy for Florida... Several hurricane members like on the 12z.

On its way to a hurricane before FL there.. euro control

The ensembles and ops showing much more agreement at this range then helene.

[psyclone]

It looks like the max qpf potential and best chance of a coherent TC is shifting south over time. The signal for heavy rain...with some potential of a higher end qpf event remains persistent. We had a crazy rain bomb today st the top of tampa bay...radar estimates more than 6" at the county line ...and it has been relentlessly wet here since latter July. Whatever becomes of this...hopefully we get some dry continental air to follow. It's time and I can't wait...

[ronjon]

18z NAVGEM continues with strong hurricane in the Gulf with landfall in FL big bend.

[Teban54]

Between Kirk likely being a Cat 5 with 7.0 ADT, Leslie forming an eye on IR, and this system suddenly seeing much more bullish model solutions, today seems very ominous in the Atlantic.

[Michele B]

This might be just as bad as a TC just without the wind for the Florida Peninsula.

https://i.postimg.cc/tTNRpP6m/kkk.png

Where I live, I can handle the rain much better than I can the wind!

I'll take it.

You have to take in the big picture in that residents with compromised homes cannot take any heavy rains. Would only compound the issues with junk sitting on curbs and sand issues.
Not your normal summer type of non issues.

I know that. I live in the area. But when I look at what those states north of us are dealing with, I can handle a little flooding. My area doesn't flood terribly, but we had a time of it with Ian. First the wind, and then the flooding.

Just saying, I'll handle the flood rather than the wind if given a choice,

[ronjon]

Both 12z HAF-A and HAF-B models for 11E develop hurricanes in BOC and move toward Florida.

[wzrgirl1]

Where I live, I can handle the rain much better than I can the wind!

I'll take it.

You have to take in the big picture in that residents with compromised homes cannot take any heavy rains. Would only compound the issues with junk sitting on curbs and sand issues.
Not your normal summer type of non issues.

I know that. I live in the area. But when I look at what those states north of us are dealing with, I can handle a little flooding. My area doesn't flood terribly, but we had a time of it with Ian. First the wind, and then the flooding.

Just saying, I'll handle the flood rather than the wind if given a choice,

Just renewed my flood insurance policy even though I am not in a flood zone. Just can't take the chance here in southwest Broward County.

[wzrgirl1]

This went from 10/50 to 0/40 to 0/30 now back to 0/40 chances. So much uncertainty.

[Nimbus]

There is low level vorticity over the Yucatan peninsula, when that reaches the BOC could be trouble.
NHC back up to 40%, no surprise there.

[Steve]

Now that the GFS shows development, I definitely have my eyes open.

I can just about guarantee that the very next run will be 100% different. I bet it will show no discernible vorticity.

I’m going to disagree. Models have called for a hook east system for a week. 00z’s will show some action. But I did laugh before posting so all good.

[Steve]

18z GFS

https://i.imgur.com/smcfAFF.gif

YIKES!!

This looks like coming close to Charley or Ian track.

Landfall or track?

[CFLHurricane]

18z GFS

https://i.imgur.com/smcfAFF.gif

YIKES!!

This looks like coming close to Charley or Ian track.

Landfall or track?

Landfall crossing over central Florida. The models have been pretty consistent about something between a sloppy TS and a Cat 2 driving up I-4 for a week now. The latest trend towards a hurricane is concerning since it’s within 5 days and the 11E crossing into the BoC appears to be the missing puzzle piece. The GoM is hostile, but will it be enough to disrupt the storm completely?

[Steve]

YIKES!!

This looks like coming close to Charley or Ian track.

Landfall or track?

Landfall crossing over central Florida. The models have been pretty consistent about something between a sloppy TS and a Cat 2 driving up I-4 for a week now. The latest trend towards a hurricane is concerning since it’s within 5 days and the 11E crossing into the BoC appears to be the missing puzzle piece. The GoM is hostile, but will it be enough to disrupt the storm completely?

I agree with that I don’t think it will be much more than a Francine type hit 1B +/- but I do think it will get to higher end TS at least. Odd track but we need that for 2024

[chaser1]

You have to take in the big picture in that residents with compromised homes cannot take any heavy rains. Would only compound the issues with junk sitting on curbs and sand issues.
Not your normal summer type of non issues.

I know that. I live in the area. But when I look at what those states north of us are dealing with, I can handle a little flooding. My area doesn't flood terribly, but we had a time of it with Ian. First the wind, and then the flooding.

Just saying, I'll handle the flood rather than the wind if given a choice,

Just renewed my flood insurance policy even though I am not in a flood zone. Just can't take the chance here in southwest Broward County.

Good move by you! I used to live in Pembroke Shores on a large lake and I wouldn't have lived there without Flood insurance!

[chaser1]

Now that the GFS shows development, I definitely have my eyes open.

I can just about guarantee that the very next run will be 100% different. I bet it will show no discernible vorticity.

I’ll take that bet

Otowntiger for the win
GFS 0Z says - 1002 frontal low

[otowntiger]

I can just about guarantee that the very next run will be 100% different. I bet it will show no discernible vorticity.

I’ll take that bet

Otowntiger for the win
GFS 0Z says - 1002 frontal low

. Ha ha! No one should be surprised!

[otowntiger]

18z EPS continues to look messy for Florida... Several hurricane members like on the 12z.

On its way to a hurricane before FL there.. euro control

https://i.postimg.cc/7PKhMQ3r/IMG-9547.jpg

Not quite.