2014 WPAC Season

[Frank2]

What a season out there...

[dexterlabio]

We might see an uptick by the end of September. Recent years show that the burst of tropical activity associated with the wet phase of MJO occurs during the second half of September.


Right now, all the energy is in the Western Hemisphere and the Eastern Pacific is the only basin taking advantage of it...

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

We might see an uptick by the end of September. Recent years show that the burst of tropical activity associated with the wet phase of MJO occurs during the second half of September.


Right now, all the energy is in the Western Hemisphere and the Eastern Pacific is the only basin taking advantage of it...

It's the calm before the onslaught...The WPAC never disappoints...

[euro6208]

While GFS and EURO doesn't develop anything...CMC does 3 mature TCs...

[euro6208]

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/maps/kelvin/total/vp/global_analyses.html

Click on Play and surely but slowly, Kelvin Wave moving towards the Western pacific...

[euro6208]

Almost set for primetime and looks to decreased further...Already running below average across the whole basin...

GFS showing continued low shear until September when the next wet MJO arrives...

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

According to these maps, the MJO won't be back until the middle part of September which means more slow activity but wouldn't be surprised if we can squeeze out a few developments due to coming Kelvin Wave...

Looking like another late burst of activity with the MJo forecast to remain in the area until November and looking like a strong one too!

[Ntxw]

The WPAC just has to endure the unfavorable MJO/Kelvin wave couplet for about a week maybe week and half more. The first couple weeks of September will drastically change as things reverse to very favorable. EPAC should slow down while Atlantic will feel what the WPAC is feeling now.

Image posted from Dr. Mike Ventrice's twitter

[euro6208]

The WPAC just has to endure the unfavorable MJO/Kelvin wave couplet for about a week maybe week and half more. The first couple weeks of September will drastically change as things reverse to very favorable. EPAC should slow down while Atlantic will feel what the WPAC is feeling now.

Image posted from Dr. Mike Ventrice's twitter

Looks stronger and duration longer than the one back in July...

[euro6208]

*Black line indicates current level of this year compared with 1959 to 2013



Already at 11 named storms...



2 Category 4 and 1 Category 5...



Overall, this season is shaping up to be a very active season and likely will be one for the ages...Another late burst likely...just delayed and it's only August!...

[dexterlabio]

I know based on climatology, August is the month with very high TC activity in the WPAC..but the previous years featured a break sometime in August then activity came back in full force by mid to late September. If you're going to ask me, September is the real start of a dangerous typhoon season..whereas the EPAC/ATL owns the month of August.

[euro6208]

I know based on climatology, August is the month with very high TC activity in the WPAC..but the previous years featured a break sometime in August then activity came back in full force by mid to late September. If you're going to ask me, September is the real start of a dangerous typhoon season..whereas the EPAC/ATL owns the month of August.

Yup when the next MJO is forecast to move through the area and a strong one too...

[euro6208]

The last time we had less than 2 TC in August?

Back in 1977


http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/w_pacific/1977/index.php

[euro6208]

GFS- NONE

EURO- NONE

CMC- 7 Tropical Cyclones



Likely suggesting more potential as the MJO makes it's presence felt...Look for the other models to pick this up...

[Equilibrium]

Global long term models continue to predict an active end to the East and West Pacific cyclone seasons in the Northern Hemisphere. A key difference is that models are becoming more bullish on a strong end of season near India. Cyclones around India tend to become major humanitarian catastrophies so this trend is worrying. Hawaii also remains in the firing line for one of its most active seasons ever. In the latest modelling he Philippines seem to be stuck in the firing line too, which could be another major humanitarian issue later in the year.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[euro6208]

Many islands in Micronesia including the Marianas under the gun. Possible late season typhoon even in December with potential el niño by then. Pongsona and Paka comes to mind which hit Guam in Dec.

[euro6208]

Interesting...SSD has an Invest giving it 1.0...and very high latitute...

20140824 1332 31.6 -149.5 T1.0/1.0 IN1 INVEST

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/IN1/IN1_floater.html

Not an official invest though...

[somethingfunny]

The last time we had less than 2 TC in August?

Back in 1977


http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/w_pacific/1977/index.php

1997 had Supertyphoon Winnie, Typhoon Amber, and Tropical Storms Yule, Zita, and Cass all form and exist entirely within August within the WPAC....along with Scott, Tina, Victor, and Bing existing within August but extending into July or September.

Has there ever been an August in the WPAC without a single tropical cyclone formation? Nakri and Halong originated in July and Genevieve originated in the East and that's all the WPAC has had all month long thus far.