TS Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread 12

[jpigott]

anybody look at the movement from the 5:23 to 7:26 VDMs, just west of due north

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

A track kind of like dennis but curving eastward once above 25 north.

I think this will become a 90 knot hurricane in 24 hours.

[dwg71]

anybody look at the movement from the 5:23 to 7:26 VDMs, just west of due north

As far fetched as this sounds, it could miss the pennisula...... to the east.

[Jevo]

The wind swath has hurricane force winds over the lower keys... I wouldnt be surprised to see Billy Wagner down at the Monroe county EOC start evacing all non residents tomorrow

[caneman]

This is a nightmare if it skirts north of Cuba and then hits the ridge. It could then do a Donna-like track up the west coast of Florida after bombing in the hot Florida Straits.

Yeah, I posted a donna like track last night. Seemig more and more possible. Bad, Bad for our state which has seend double to triple the rise in Home Owners Insurance

[BensonTCwatcher]

anybody look at the movement from the 5:23 to 7:26 VDMs, just west of due north

As far fetched as this sounds, it could miss the pennisula...... to the east.

Wow, I was looking at all the upper air stuff and just looked at the position fixes and sat....you might be right. The center might be crossing Hsp. and not Cuba at all??

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The uper low/tutt is retreating fast...Which is forming outflow jets. WOW almost a perfect set up.

[Jevo]

Come-on cycloneeye I know youre watching this thing..... youre slacking on the name change... its been a cane for 43mins

[jpigott]

anybody look at the movement from the 5:23 to 7:26 VDMs, just west of due north

As far fetched as this sounds, it could miss the pennisula...... to the east.

Wow, I was looking at all the upper air stuff and just looked at the position fixes and sat....you might be right. The center might be crossing Hsp. and not Cuba at all??

Not saying it will, but if Ernesto hits the southern coast of Haiti and just clips eastern Cuba, there may be minimal effect on him due to land interaction and we could have a very nasty hurricane in the Florida Straights/Southern Bahamas with optimal conditions for RI

[BensonTCwatcher]

The east coast ridge have shifted east and is not as far south as I thought it would/shoudl be. Looking foward a bit ( i.e. just under 1000mb) as it likely is or soon will be, it's easy to see on this map why the northern jog is taking place.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm2.html

I still don't see how this woudl miss the FL peninsula to the east, but who knows

[dwg71]

The east coast ridge have shifted east and is not as far south as I thought it would/shoudl be. Looking foward a bit ( i.e. just under 1000mb) as it likely is or soon will be, it's easy to see on this map why the northern jog is taking place.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm2.html

I still don't see how this woudl miss the FL peninsula to the east, but who knows

I agree, I dont see it happening, but if you made that statement 12 hours ago, you would have been run out on a rail, a lot has changed.

[caneman]

The east coast ridge have shifted east and is not as far south as I thought it would/shoudl be. Looking foward a bit ( i.e. just under 1000mb) as it likely is or soon will be, it's easy to see on this map why the northern jog is taking place.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm2.html

I still don't see how this woudl miss the FL peninsula to the east, but who knows

I agree, I dont see it happening, but if you made that statement 12 hours ago, you would have been run out on a rail, a lot has changed.

Yeah trust me afew of us were. The GFS is looking pretty doggone smart now.

[BensonTCwatcher]

anybody look at the movement from the 5:23 to 7:26 VDMs, just west of due north

As far fetched as this sounds, it could miss the pennisula...... to the east.

Wow, I was looking at all the upper air stuff and just looked at the position fixes and sat....you might be right. The center might be crossing Hsp. and not Cuba at all??

Not saying it will, but if Ernesto hits the southern coast of Haiti and just clips eastern Cuba, there may be minimal effect on him due to land interaction and we could have a very nasty hurricane in the Florida Straights/Southern Bahamas with optimal conditions for RI

That is what Stewart was saying in the disco, conditions wise. That track is right up the area of decresing shear for next 24hrs. Actually no shear

[SkeetoBite]

Well, this is certainly a change from last night. If the forecast was anyone but Stewart, I wouldn't be having chest pains and cold sweats right now!

If the current track verifies (I think more to the right), Ernesto is going to stop by the marina and destroy my boat, on his way to destroy my house!

[BensonTCwatcher]

[quote="dwg71
I agree, I dont see it happening, but if you made that statement 12 hours ago, you would have been run out on a rail, a lot has changed.

Yeah trust me afew of us were. The GFS is looking pretty doggone smart now.[/quote]

Well 12 hours ago I was saying Big Bend ala GFDL, and east/north of Jamaica before that. I wasn't on a rail, but the silence on that matter was noticeable. Silly little GFDL was all over it. Maybe the NOGAPS is something to watch too?

[miamicanes177]

I'm up this morning to eat my breakfast...crow. Glad I got that out of the way. Now this is a very serious situation because it is undergoing rapid intensification and could become a category 3 hurricane before even getting to cuba. How long it spends over cuba will determine its strength down the line.

[BensonTCwatcher]

I am wondering if it will over over Cuba, the rapid strenghtening and lack of strong steering right now looks like north for little while longer.

[caneman]

I am wondering if it will over over Cuba, the rapid strenghtening and lack of strong steering right now looks like north for little while longer.

Looks like it'll clip Eastern Cuba but not spend a lot of time over land.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Look at this close in near where the Nhc has the center. There appears to be a warm spot. Its hard to tell it could easly be a cooler cloud but I don't think so. It was moving north-northwestward for the first half of this frame. But then over the last 2 frames shows it going more west-northwest again. So it most likely will clip the northern eyewall on land but the center could still stay off shore. Remember dennis went right over. We will see.

zoom in on this...Its acting more like a eye then a cold cloud to.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html

[Cookiely]

This sounds strange from the NWS in Ruskin. Sounds to me like they think its going to continue north of Tampa. 34 kts winds and some beach erosion? I sure hope this verifies.
000
FXUS62 KTBW 270923
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
523 AM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006

.UPDATE...THE UPGRADE OF ERNESTO TO A HURRICANE AROUND 5 AM THIS MORNING
HAS PROMPTED UPDATES TO THE PUBLIC AND MARINE ZONES THAT WILL BE
ISSUED SHORTLY. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK BRING ERNESTO IN THE EAST GULF
MIDWEEK...BECOMING A GREATER THREAT TO THE CWFA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 308 AM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006)

SHORT TERM (TODAY - TUE)...UPPER RIDGE TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A SHEAR AXIS MOVES ACROSS
THE STATE TODAY. THIS AXIS ALONG WITH AMPLE MOISTURE (PWATS OVER
2 IN. ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA) FROM AN OLD BOUNDARY PROVIDES
SCATTERED TO LIKELY POPS...NORTH TO SOUTH...OVER THE CWFA.
ALTHOUGH SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM NE OF THE CWFA
WILL KEEP CONVECTION IN THE SCATTERED RANGE IN THE NORTH END. AT
THE SURFACE WEAK RIDGING ACROSS FL HAS BEEN IS BROKEN BY A LOW
MOVING OVER NORTH FL FROM THE ATLANTIC. THIS KEEPS A LIGHT FLOW
PATTERN IN PLACE DOMINATED BY AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.

MONDAY ERNESTO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN (SEE
LATEST NHC FORECASTS FOR DETAILS) WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WORKING INTO THE CWFA AND ALLOWING POPS TO
DROP INTO THE LOW SCATTERED RANGE. ERNESTO`S TRACK WILL ALSO
PERMIT THE RIDGE TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE STATE AND LIFT NORTHWARD.
IN RESPONSE WINDS BECOME MORE EAST AND SE (ALTHOUGH COASTAL
LOCATIONS WILL SEE AFTERNOON ONSHORE FLOW) AND BEGIN TO INCREASE.

ERNESTO IS FORECAST NEAR WESTERN CUBA TUE WITH IT`S ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE BEGIN TO IMPACT FL. FOR NOW WILL RAISE POPS INTO THE MID
SCATTERED RANGE. WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND BACK SLIGHTLY TO
MORE EASTERLY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO BUT WILL ALLOW MAXES TO RISE A
DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE MON & TUE DUE TO THE EXPECTED DECREASE IN
PCPN COVERAGE.

LONG TERM(TUESDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY)...HAVE INGESTED NHC TS ERNESTO
TRACK INTO GRIDS TO DOMINATE THIS FORECAST PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
EARLY. AT 00Z WED ERNESTO FORECAST TO BE HURRICANE IN SE GULF OF
MEXICO TRACKING INTO THE E CENTRAL GULF 00Z THU AND INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF 00Z FRI. THIS TRACK KEEPS CENTER OF STORM APPROXIMATELY
250 MILES WEST OF THE WEST COAST OF FL. WITH 34KT WINDS FORECAST TO
EXTEND APPROXIMATELY 150 MILES E OF THE CENTER. MAIN EFFECTS TO THE
AREA APPEAR TO BE TS FORCE WINDS OVER OFFSHORE WATERS WITH LARGE
BREAKING WAVES ALONG AREA BEACHES. MAY SEE SOME MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ISSUES IN USUALLY PRONE AREAS AS WELL. OTHERWISE...TROPICAL
RAINFALL E OF THE CENTER TO FALL OVER THE FL PENINSULA MAINLY FROM
LATE WED THRU FRI AND HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 50 PERCENT ALL AREAS.
OVERCAST SKIES TO KEEP TEMPS DOWN A BIT AS WELL.

CONDITIONS RETURN TO MORE NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

MARINE...LIGHT WINDS/SEAS WITH THE MAIN CONCERN TSTMS AS THE
WEEKEND WINDS DOWN. TS ERNESTO WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE COASTAL
WATERS WITH INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS FOR THE UP COMING WEEK.
MARINES INTERESTS ARE ADVISED TO STAY UP DATE WITH THE MARINE
FORECAST AND ALSO ADVISORIES FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

AVIATION...SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CREATING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ALL TAF SITES...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&