Possible GoM Tropical Threat next Tuesday/Wednesday?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I agree Dean. In the last couple of frames there is that comma shape forming in that general vicinty . Also you can see inflow getting sucked in on the southern end of the disturbance.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

my gf had a dream last night she told me about as soon as she woke up. She saw a car floating in rushing water with its nose down in waht must have been a pothole or sinkhole and water was rushing in on the people in the car. It was a family with 3 kids in the back all very upset and scared. There was a terrible storm and lots of wind. She said it was a hurricane and they were caught in it. She didn't say where this was, but she immediately wanted to check the tropical forecast this morning on local and TWC. She didn't see anything going on, but I told her that WxMan on this site said watch (and I pointed) "this area" for something to develop today and then move up into the gulf.

We didn't see much early this morning, and she is napping now. But when she wakes up and sees what happened, I know she is gonna freak a little and want to be sure we are well stocked just in case.

She'll be "happy" to know I think it won't be coming here. Hopefully I am right in my analysis of the pressures/fronts 3-7 days out from teh HPC site.

[PTPatrick]

MObile Disco this Afteroon:

SLOW MOVING FRONT OFF TO THE NORTH
SHOULD MAKE IT TO TENNESSEE VALLEY BY TUESDAY AS WEAK TROUGHING
ALOFT DEVELOPS AT H5 AS H5 HIGH OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS DRIFTS WEST.
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN LURKING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST OF
FLORIDA THE LAST FEW DAYS FINALLY MAKES A MOVE TO THE WEST AS THE
UPPER SYSTEM OVER TEXAS MOVES AWAY. THE ADDED UPPER
DYNAMICS...INCREASED MOISTURE...FRONT TO THE NORTH ALL MEANS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND GUIDANCE GOES
ALONG WITH THIS.


NOLA:
AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND STALL NORTH OF THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING EFFECTS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY MAY
ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MONDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S
BEFORE TRENDING CLOSER TO SEASONAL VALUES FROM TUE FORWARD. RAIN
CHANCES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE BEGINNING MON WITH THE FRONT
MOVING INTO THE AREA. IN ADDITION...THE GFS IS HINTING AT SOME
VORT LOBES DEVELOPING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND
MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY TUE AND WED WITH THE RIDGE
SHIFTING WESTWARD. THE SURFACE FRONT THEN LOOKS TO WASH OUT BY FRI
AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC BASIN TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE
EASTERN GULF. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT ALSO LOOKS TO RETURN BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK ALTHOUGH A CONTINUED INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE IN
THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN PLAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR NORMAL.



They are not mentioning the Carribean system, I am sure because NHC hasnt had a chance to comment...but it sounds like that front might be around in the right time frame to allow a weakness and escort this thing more northward...who knows.
If it is slower though, the atlantic ridge may build far enough west to protect the gulf coast...wish I thought it was going to go slower

[LaBreeze]

I'm with ConvergenceZone - current moving direction?? Anyone?

[MortisFL]

NNW?

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

On top of all our speculations, has anyone noticed the immense size this disturbance already seems to have? The diameter is huge and it hasn't even gotten itself going yet. If it gets bigger as it develops, this thing could end up taking up a good portion fo the gulf! This won't be an itty bitty Charley-sized storm that's for sure!

Surf should be up for west coast floridians!

[ConvergenceZone]

NNW?

Hmm, wouldn't that sent it into land before it enters the gulf?? Would that mean a Mexico storm?


**Of course I'm taking it with the assumption that it develops***". It's too earlly to say, but would still like to get opinions on the track.

[Dean4Storms]

I would say it is drifiting NNW right now.

[PTPatrick]

Ok...I am seeing a little warming now too in the cloud tops...although it doesnt appear to be the falling apart type of warming...just normal afternoon warming of the cloud tops

[CYCLONE MIKE]

It looks pretty stationary, maybe a drift to the NW/NNW like others have mentioned.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Sorry Dean, you got it in before I did.

[tropicsgal05]

I'm learning along with alot of other people but do the hurricane hunter's have to fly into this system for it to be called an invest? Hope that doesn't sound dumb asking this.

[Dean4Storms]

NNW?

Hmm, wouldn't that sent it into land before it enters the gulf?? Would that mean a Mexico storm?


**Of course I'm taking it with the assumption that it develops***". It's too earlly to say, but would still like to get opinions on the track.

No not necessarily, if it maintained a NNW motion it could move right throught the Yucatan Channel and into the South Central Gulf. But that is still much a question right now.

[Meso]

They will normally name the system an invest before flying recon into the system..

[Dean4Storms]

I'm learning along with alot of other people but do the hurricane hunter's have to fly into this system for it to be called an invest? Hope that doesn't sound dumb asking this.

No, an invest is placed on any area of disturbed weather in the tropics when it shows signs of possible TC development.

[Dean4Storms]

Ok...I am seeing a little warming now too in the cloud tops...although it doesnt appear to be the falling apart type of warming...just normal afternoon warming of the cloud tops

Yep, but there is also a new feeder band type line of convection forming on the south side inward toward what appears to be the center of formation.

Like I said earlier, the next 3-5 hours are crucial if this is too develop further. If it can re-fire the deep convection we saw today it will develop IMO.

[MortisFL]

Jamaica is gonna feel some effects from this tomorrow on the east side of the system.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

When will we be able to see the first model runs on this now that it is together... that is, models other than the NAM?

[SouthFloridawx]

Can someone point me in the right direction here? I do see persistent convection but, I do not see spinning going on there in the Western Caribbean. If you guys are looking at a different sat pic than me, then please let me know.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html

It's going to take a couple of days for anything to get going... as per the 205 disco the surface trough was expected to move WNW into land?

[Bailey1777]

Where are the Pro-Mets at on this one? Haven't heard from our crew on this.