98L invest,W.GOM,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

southerngale · #421 Postby **southerngale** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 2:22 pm

So some mets say there's a low offshore and some mets say there isn't. The only thing I know for sure is that it's raining, and I don't think it makes a difference whether this becomes a TD or not...the bottom line is still a lot of rain.

#422 Postby **NDG** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 2:22 pm

A better defined LLC seems to be forming near Brownsville.

#423 Postby **jasons2k** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 2:26 pm

NDG wrote:A better defined LLC seems to be forming near Brownsville.

I just don't see it. Maybe something in the mid levels but not at the surface. If you have access to a Level 3 radar look at the Brownsville site closely. The Seabreeze south of the city (in Mexico) is moving westward - towards the remnants of the LLC west of the city. There just isn't any indication of a LLC offshore.

(edited for typos - typing too fast ;-)

)

Hohwxny · #424 Postby **Hohwxny** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 2:26 pm

southerngale wrote:So some mets say there's a low offshore and some mets say there isn't. The only thing I know for sure is that it's raining, and I don't think it makes a difference whether this becomes a TD or not...the bottom line is still a lot of rain.

Truer words were never spoken.

Thunder44 · #425 Postby **Thunder44** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 2:28 pm

On radar I see more of a circulation over the Southern Tip of Texas than east of there. It's seems to me that the same low that was SW of Brownsvilee is still hanging on and still moving north. It's now moving to their NW hence the wind direction out of the SW wind there now. I think this system has little chance to develop offshore.

HurricaneHunter914 · #426 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 2:29 pm

I agree with stormcenter, if this isn't named then I award 98L for being the best looking invest in 2006 that didn't become a named storm.

#427 Postby **storms in NC** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 2:29 pm

Yeah it looks like a lot of rain. But the low is so close to shore.

HurricaneHunter914 · #428 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 2:31 pm

If it can just move NNE and off of the Brownsville coastline then we can get a TC from this.

#429 Postby **Air Force Met** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 2:34 pm

southerngale wrote:So some mets say there's a low offshore and some mets say there isn't. The only thing I know for sure is that it's raining, and I don't think it makes a difference whether this becomes a TD or not...the bottom line is still a lot of rain.

Which mets are saying there is a low offshore? :lol:

#430 Postby **NDG** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 2:35 pm

jschlitz wrote:
NDG wrote:A better defined LLC seems to be forming near Brownsville.

I just don't see it. Maybe something in the mid levels but not at the surface. If you have access to a Level 3 radar look at the Brownsville site closely. The Seabreeze south of the city (in Mexico) is moving westward - towards the remnants of the LLC west of the city. There just isn't any indication of a LLC offshore.

(edited for typos - typing too fast )

I didn't say offshore, I said near Brownsville, yes, I do see on Level 3 radar what appears to be the seabreeze heading inland, but as of 18:45z, Matamoros was still indicating SSW wind. Brownsville is also reporting a SW wind now.

#431 Postby **Stormcenter** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 2:36 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
southerngale wrote:So some mets say there's a low offshore and some mets say there isn't. The only thing I know for sure is that it's raining, and I don't think it makes a difference whether this becomes a TD or not...the bottom line is still a lot of rain.

Which mets are saying there is a low offshore?

Accuweather mets.

Grease Monkey · #432 Postby **Grease Monkey** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 2:39 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

It does look pretty good on vis satelite in my opinion. It does look like the whole mass is beginning to spin together like a tropical cyclone.

Stratosphere747 · #433 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 2:39 pm

Stormcenter wrote:
Air Force Met wrote:
southerngale wrote:So some mets say there's a low offshore and some mets say there isn't. The only thing I know for sure is that it's raining, and I don't think it makes a difference whether this becomes a TD or not...the bottom line is still a lot of rain.

Which mets are saying there is a low offshore?

Accuweather mets.

Even though the article was posted this afternoon, obviously it was obs from this morning, with the low moving onshore...

kjun · #434 Postby **kjun** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 2:40 pm

Hard to believe this is not a least a TD. The NHC has not even issued a Special Dis. Statement.

#435 Postby **jasons2k** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 2:42 pm

NDG wrote:
jschlitz wrote:
NDG wrote:A better defined LLC seems to be forming near Brownsville.

I just don't see it. Maybe something in the mid levels but not at the surface. If you have access to a Level 3 radar look at the Brownsville site closely. The Seabreeze south of the city (in Mexico) is moving westward - towards the remnants of the LLC west of the city. There just isn't any indication of a LLC offshore.

(edited for typos - typing too fast )

I didn't say offshore, I said near Brownsville, yes, I do see on Level 3 radar what appears to be the seabreeze heading inland, but as of 18:45z, Matamoros was still indicating SSW wind. Brownsville is also reporting a SW wind now.

Sorry, I didn't mean to put words into your mouth - I was just assuming you meant a LLC offhsore.

#436 Postby **Air Force Met** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 2:44 pm

Stormcenter wrote:
Air Force Met wrote:
southerngale wrote:So some mets say there's a low offshore and some mets say there isn't. The only thing I know for sure is that it's raining, and I don't think it makes a difference whether this becomes a TD or not...the bottom line is still a lot of rain.

Which mets are saying there is a low offshore?

Accuweather mets.

Oh...I thought there were Mets on this board saying that. ACCUMETS? Have they offered a shread of evidence other than a radar beam at 8,000' to prove it? Now JB hasn't said there is a LLC...he has said it is a MLC and is worried about it pulling down to the low levels.

Which accu-wx mets said it? It wasn't JB...and what evidence did they offer? There isn't any right now other than the mid-level to the NE of BRO.

#437 Postby **Wpwxguy** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 2:45 pm

The best forecast yet! " Maybe or Maybe not" :ggreen:

#438 Postby **Stormcenter** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 2:46 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:
Air Force Met wrote:
southerngale wrote:So some mets say there's a low offshore and some mets say there isn't. The only thing I know for sure is that it's raining, and I don't think it makes a difference whether this becomes a TD or not...the bottom line is still a lot of rain.

Which mets are saying there is a low offshore?

Accuweather mets.

Oh...I thought there were Mets on this board saying that. ACCUMETS? Have they offered a shread of evidence other than a radar beam at 8,000' to prove it? Now JB hasn't said there is a LLC...he has said it is a MLC and is worried about it pulling down to the low levels.

Which accu-wx mets said it? It wasn't JB...and what evidence did they offer? There isn't any right now other than the mid-level to the NE of BRO.

Someone posted a map created by I would think a Accuweather met on this thread.

southerngale · #439 Postby **southerngale** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 2:46 pm

AFM, look at the Accuweather discussion posted here on page 21.

#440 Postby **Air Force Met** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 2:47 pm

kjun wrote:Hard to believe this is not a least a TD. The NHC has not even issued a Special Dis. Statement.

A TD requires a closed low...over open waters (unless it forms over waters and moves inland).

Provide data that shows me we have that and I will agree with you.

98L invest,W.GOM,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

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