Atlantic Tropical Waves,Comments,Sat Pics Thread #2

[SouthFloridawx]

Well I didn't look at the latest picture of the African Dust... no wonder.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

That dust needs to get out of there...Also with a strong tutt and wind shear across the atlatnic. You can forget development.

[cycloneye]

Well I didn't look at the latest picture of the African Dust... no wonder.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... split.html

Look here.

[marcane_1973]

That dust needs to get out of there...Also with a strong tutt and wind shear across the atlatnic. You can forget development.

If all this dust, shear, and dry air that roams the Atlantic keeps in place for a while I do not see any development for at least a minimal Hurricane until mid August or maybe even later. This is going to be a lot slower season. Last year was just one of those years that goes down in the history books that happens every 100 years or so.

[cycloneye]

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. A 1013 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 15N.
THIS AREA OF LOW PRES IS CLEARLY DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND IN THE SURROUNDING SHIPS/BUOYS. DESPITE THE WELL DEFINED
STRUCTURE OF THE WAVE AND LOW...A WIDESPREAD AREA OF SAHARAN
DUST IS SUPPRESSING ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY. ONLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SURROUNDING THESE FEATURES EMBEDDED IN THE
ITCZ. THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT TRACKS UNDER THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL
RIDGE.

The above is from 8 PM Discussion.The dust is limiting convection to form around this low.

[Grease Monkey]

If all this dust, shear, and dry air that roams the Atlantic keeps in place for a while I do not see any development for at least a minimal Hurricane until mid August or maybe even later. This is going to be a lot slower season. Last year was just one of those years that goes down in the history books that happens every 100 years or so.

I could of sworn that before beryl formed the majority of people were talking about not to expect anything until at least August. Look how fast things can change.

Last year being something that happens only about every 100 years? Based on about 150 years of recorded history?

[wayoutfront]

From my understanding the SAL actually increases the danger of Hurricanes hitting the US as it impedes development until it is closer to the US and past the steering currents that would steer them out to sea?

If I am wrong correct me

[gatorcane]

From my understanding the SAL actually increases the danger of Hurricanes hitting the US as it impedes development until it is closer to the US and past the steering currents that would steer them out to sea?

If I am wrong correct me

That's a really good point. When waves stay weak they tend to move with the easterly trades unlike strong CV systems that can tend to want to go poleward easier.

This year has been the same as least year as we have seen tenacious waves where some have made the trip across the MDR but unlike 2005 so far, the TUTT has killed them.

The TUTT will begin to diminish in August because it is typically the strongest in July. We need to watch if we'll see a repeat of last year with these CV waves that wait until moving into the Caribbean or closer to home to explode.

[gatorcane]

Wind shear is starting to relax across the Atlantic basin also:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think this year will be very similar to 2005 from August onward. It was just the early season that was slower for the reasons gatorcane pointed out above. I still expect 14+ storms this year.

[Tampa_God]

So the dust will be deminishing soon?

[Extremeweatherguy]

looks like a decent TW (with a low pressure area along it) is forecast to be ENE of the islands in 72 hrs:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

[southerngale]

You can continue to post in this thread if you'd like, but we've decided not to have an "official" thread for all Atlantic waves. Although some may like it this way, many members don't want to read an entire thread about all waves and would prefer to see a thread title that captures their attention about a particular wave. Also, we'd really like to get away from everyone thinking they have to post in this "official" thread, etc. If you think it is significant enough for a new thread, it probably is. Everyone doesn't read every post in every thread, so let's also not jump on people who happen to repeat something that someone else already said. Obvious duplicate threads may still be locked though.

[tailgater]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif
First time I've seen them carry a L for 3 straight forecast days. This year.

[Aquawind]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW_sm3.gif
First time I've seen them carry a L for 3 straight forecast days. This year.

I just noticed the same thing.. Were getting closer to "Prime Time" alrighty..

[drezee]

This should be the buoy to watch over the next 36-48 hours, especially given the current pressure trends at that location...

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41041

[Eyewall]

If all this dust, shear, and dry air that roams the Atlantic keeps in place for a while I do not see any development for at least a minimal Hurricane until mid August or maybe even later. This is going to be a lot slower season. Last year was just one of those years that goes down in the history books that happens every 100 years or so.

I could of sworn that before beryl formed the majority of people were talking about not to expect anything until at least August. Look how fast things can change.

Last year being something that happens only about every 100 years? Based on about 150 years of recorded history?

As far as I'm concerned, this season has not put out anything worth talking about...

Don't go and say that "OHH but we had beryl form!"
beryl was nothing...
this season has been a flop so far..

[Meso]

A flop, Guh.. Why is everyone comparing this year to last year... People should have last year erased from their minds when it comes to tropical formation expectations.. And now on track...It's only a matter of time before things pick up,the waves are there...the harsh enviroment just needs to relax a bit and it will

[Grease Monkey]

As far as I'm concerned, this season has not put out anything worth talking about...

Don't go and say that "OHH but we had beryl form!"
beryl was nothing...
this season has been a flop so far..

You missed the point. The fact is the climate can change quickly and don't worry Beryl is just the beginning. The season a flop so far? You remember way back when it was the 2004 hurricane season? Nothing formed until August. I guess that season was a flop too.

[vbhoutex]

If all this dust, shear, and dry air that roams the Atlantic keeps in place for a while I do not see any development for at least a minimal Hurricane until mid August or maybe even later. This is going to be a lot slower season. Last year was just one of those years that goes down in the history books that happens every 100 years or so.

I could of sworn that before beryl formed the majority of people were talking about not to expect anything until at least August. Look how fast things can change.

Last year being something that happens only about every 100 years? Based on about 150 years of recorded history?

As far as I'm concerned, this season has not put out anything worth talking about...

Don't go and say that "OHH but we had beryl form!"
beryl was nothing...
this season has been a flop so far..

I believe there are hundreds of members that would disagree with the statement about nothing to talk about-seems to me there has been quite a bit of discussion and learning going on this season, even as quiet as it has been-WHICH IS A BLESSING!!!

Please define the parameters used to define a hurricane season as a flop.