2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[NotSparta]

https://i.imgur.com/jrou9Pu.png

Behold....the "cool MDR" that has been widely chattered about that will stunt the hurricane season.

Oh wait a sec.

The climatology period of this plot is awful. It'd be difficult to get a cool MDR with it

[Teban54]

https://i.imgur.com/jrou9Pu.png

Behold....the "cool MDR" that has been widely chattered about that will stunt the hurricane season.

Oh wait a sec.

The climatology period of this plot is awful. It'd be difficult to get a cool MDR with it

My current favorite for SST plots is Alex Boreham's website (cyclonicwx). Even there, both the Coral Reef Watch and OISST show pretty warm SSTAs:

(All images are GIF loops between CRW and OISST)



It's only when global means are subtracted that the MDR returns to mostly neutral, but still a far cry from the negative "SSTA - Global Mean" that we saw earlier.



There's also been very significant anomalous warming of MDR and the Canary Current lately. 15-day change:

[NotSparta]

https://i.imgur.com/jrou9Pu.png

Behold....the "cool MDR" that has been widely chattered about that will stunt the hurricane season.

Oh wait a sec.

The climatology period of this plot is awful. It'd be difficult to get a cool MDR with it

My current favorite for SST plots is Alex Boreham's website (cyclonicwx). Even there, both the Coral Reef Watch and OISST show pretty warm SSTAs:

(All images are GIF loops between CRW and OISST)

https://i.postimg.cc/Wbm78CyD/ezgif-61b01930d5c7cb.gif

It's only when global means are subtracted that the MDR returns to mostly neutral, but still a far cry from the negative "SSTA - Global Mean" that we saw earlier.

https://i.postimg.cc/sgw4dSss/ezgif-6275dee9c42b29.gif

There's also been very significant anomalous warming of MDR and the Canary Current lately. 15-day change:

https://i.postimg.cc/JnBNk2Jz/ezgif-651fac06493f9c.gif

I happen to be very familiar with that site . Thanks for the shoutout! CRW is pretty good once you give it a normal climatology. Impressive warming in the MDR for sure this month. We'll have to see if it can weaken that strong TUTT at all. That's the one thing that has really given me pause about this season. The Atlantic warming probably helps, but a lot of it is from outside the basin

[weeniepatrol]

Issuing Egg On Face Watch valid for wxtwitter through 30 November…

[weeniepatrol]

My current favorite for SST plots is Alex Boreham's website (cyclonicwx).

Hah, you are replying to Alex Boreham

I agree!!! Fantastic site!

[cycloneye]

My current favorite for SST plots is Alex Boreham's website (cyclonicwx).

Hah, you are replying to Alex Boreham

I agree!!! Fantastic site!

I also recommend the site as it has many tools even more than tropical tidbits.

[Woofde]

Issuing Egg On Face Watch valid for wxtwitter through 30 November…

It is certainly warmed up a lot out there, even with the Global Tropics subtracted. The CFS says it's a short lived burst of warming, but we'll see if thats the case.

[Hurricane2022]

Very backloaded (aka 2024) season type?
 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1947080258030559441

[LarryWx]

Any opinions/comments about this Andy Hazelton tweet that is kind of/sort of agreeing with what Eric Webb said in the Hurricane2022 post just above this about an expected quiet August into early Sept? Note, however, that he said, “I’m kinda of the same opinion that August may be quiet in the Atlantic”, which isn’t a forecast. A forecast would say something much more explicit like “August will (likely) be quiet in the Atlantic” or “I expect August to be quiet”:

I'm kinda of the same opinion that August may be quiet in the Atlantic despite favorable MJO. Background stability is pretty hostile this year, and will suppress convection even if/when shear is more favorable. If we get Pacific MJO at peak (TBD but that's what current subseasonal modeling suggests), could easily be mid-September before the Atlantic is "all systems go". As last year showed, though, that still leaves plenty of time for big impacts. And of course it's possible that something will find a window prior to that.

https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1947084436434301069

[jconsor]

I respect Andy and his knowledge of hurricane modeling is second to none.

I am just not as confident as him that Aug will be particularly quiet in the Atlantic, especially the first half of the month. The EPS long range VP outlook Webb posted suggests enhanced activity in the Atlantic and suppress d in the eastern Pacific in the first half or Aug.
Further, There has been a notable trend toward warming in the tropical Atlantic past month (on the order of 0.5C averaged across the area from 10-20N east of the Caribbean, and more than 1C in some areas). Also, in line with what several seasonal models (most notable ECMWF , JMA and Australian BOM) suggested, the Atlantic NIno/Nina region has transitioned from cold to warm SST anomalies as well in the past few weeks (including the traditional Atl NIno area south of the Gulf of Guinea and also the western Atl NIno area which extends to around 35W).

2003 and 2021 are looking better and better as analogs, with both having an Atl NIno and anomalous warmth shifting from the Canary Current toward the MDR in Jul after the MDR got off to a relatively cool start in May-Jun.

Both years had significant Aug hurricane activity, 2003 with Fabian in late Aug and 2021 with Grace early in the month and Ida later in the month.

Any opinions/comments about this Andy Hazelton tweet that is kind of/sort of agreeing with what Eric Webb said in the Hurricane2022 post just above this about an expected quiet August into early Sept? Note, however, that he said, “I’m kinda of the same opinion that August may be quiet in the Atlantic”, which isn’t a forecast. A forecast would say something much more explicit like “August will (likely) be quiet in the Atlantic” or “I expect August to be quiet”:

I'm kinda of the same opinion that August may be quiet in the Atlantic despite favorable MJO. Background stability is pretty hostile this year, and will suppress convection even if/when shear is more favorable. If we get Pacific MJO at peak (TBD but that's what current subseasonal modeling suggests), could easily be mid-September before the Atlantic is "all systems go". As last year showed, though, that still leaves plenty of time for big impacts. And of course it's possible that something will find a window prior to that.

https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1947084436434301069

[LarryWx]

I respect Andy and his knowledge of hurricane modeling is second to none.

I am just not as confident as him that Aug will be particularly quiet in the Atlantic, especially the first half of the month. The EPS long range VP outlook Webb posted suggests enhanced activity in the Atlantic and suppress d in the eastern Pacific in the first half or Aug.
Further, There has been a notable trend toward warming in the tropical Atlantic past month (on the order of 0.5C averaged across the area from 10-20N east of the Caribbean, and more than 1C in some areas). Also, in line with what several seasonal models (most notable ECMWF , JMA and Australian BOM) suggested, the Atlantic NIno/Nina region has transitioned from cold to warm SST anomalies as well in the past few weeks (including the traditional Atl NIno area south of the Gulf of Guinea and also the western Atl NIno area which extends to around 35W).

2003 and 2021 are looking better and better as analogs, with both having an Atl NIno and anomalous warmth shifting from the Canary Current toward the MDR in Jul after the MDR got off to a relatively cool start in May-Jun.

Both years had significant Aug hurricane activity, 2003 with Fabian in late Aug and 2021 with Grace early in the month and Ida later in the month.

Any opinions/comments about this Andy Hazelton tweet that is kind of/sort of agreeing with what Eric Webb said in the Hurricane2022 post just above this about an expected quiet August into early Sept? Note, however, that he said, “I’m kinda of the same opinion that August may be quiet in the Atlantic”, which isn’t a forecast. A forecast would say something much more explicit like “August will (likely) be quiet in the Atlantic” or “I expect August to be quiet”:

I'm kinda of the same opinion that August may be quiet in the Atlantic despite favorable MJO. Background stability is pretty hostile this year, and will suppress convection even if/when shear is more favorable. If we get Pacific MJO at peak (TBD but that's what current subseasonal modeling suggests), could easily be mid-September before the Atlantic is "all systems go". As last year showed, though, that still leaves plenty of time for big impacts. And of course it's possible that something will find a window prior to that.

https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1947084436434301069

Andy doesn’t even seem confident to me as he didn’t really make a forecast.

[tolakram]

I'm not convinced of anything. Every year it seems many use the 'lessons' of last year, which don't really count for much. Wave breaking is 2 years out now and fading from the lexicon, maybe it will make a comeback in August.

[chaser1]

Oh please no. For the sake of all things Tropical, can't we simply allow "wave-breaking" to die a quick death We simply need a fresh newly coined expression for some meteorological observation, that has..... and will likely continue to occur (right along with "Atlantic Nino"). I'm going to differ with tolakram on one thing however. There is one thing that I AM confident of. I am confident that "lexicon" itself would be a great name for a hurricane. Let's get it promoted to the on-deck circle for the day we eventually retire the "L" name!

[chaser1]

....Anyway, back to the tropics. I for one am getting 2013 vibes. Just for clarification however, I am sure that Larry will agree... "vibes" are also not a forecast

Speaking of 2013, here's a Fun Fact (I think?):
September 11, 2013 tied the Atlantic basin record for the latest "1st hurricane of the year", when on September 11 Tropical Storm Humberto was the first TS that year to reach hurricane intensity. It's winds maxed out at 90 mph and was that seasons' strongest storm.

In fact, 2013 is about to school 2025 given that year produced its "D" storm on July 23 while 2025 just plods along. Of greater interest to me will be to see if 2025 similarly will exhibit one or more far E. Atlantic higher latitude quick recurves (reference T.S. Erin Aug 15, 2013). Such might suggest a further tendency for tropical waves exiting the African coast at particularly high latitudes.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1947653037423567301

[USTropics]

....Anyway, back to the tropics. I for one am getting 2013 vibes. Just for clarification however, I am sure that Larry will agree... "vibes" are also not a forecast

Speaking of 2013, here's a Fun Fact (I think?):
September 11, 2013 tied the Atlantic basin record for the latest "1st hurricane of the year", when on September 11 Tropical Storm Humberto was the first TS that year to reach hurricane intensity. It's winds maxed out at 90 mph and was that seasons' strongest storm.

In fact, 2013 is about to school 2025 given that year produced its "D" storm on July 23 while 2025 just plods along. Of greater interest to me will be to see if 2025 similarly will exhibit one or more far E. Atlantic higher latitude quick recurves (reference T.S. Erin Aug 15, 2013). Such might suggest a further tendency for tropical waves exiting the African coast at particularly high latitudes.

I am taking the bait and going fishing /s

2013 wasn't just a shutdown of Atlantic activity, it completely shut down every single basin in the Northern Hemisphere that year (we never got out of a spring pattern, hence the constant wave breaking). We definitely do not have that issue this year. For example, the EPAC had a total of one major hurricane (late October) that entire year. We just saw 2 major hurricanes last month in the EPAC (two rapid intensification events, another reason this year is not like 2013) with the first ever major hurricane hitting Mexico in June OR July (basically the EPAC version of Beryl).

We learned a lot in 2013 (i.e., Canary Current is very important, warmth in the northwest Pacific is very important). I'll reference this composite of the top 10 most active seasons in June again:


Compared to 2013:


2013 forecasts focused on the MDR warmth, but there was nothing in the Canary Current to sustain it as we approached peak season. Also 2013 the NW Pacific has -SSTA, and the NE Pacific has +SSTA. This essentially neutralized the positive ENSO effects (another reason forecasters were bullish) by creating my favorite lexicon, thermohaline circulation disruption (and yes, we need Lexi on the list )

[TomballEd]

....Anyway, back to the tropics. I for one am getting 2013 vibes. Just for clarification however, I am sure that Larry will agree... "vibes" are also not a forecast

Speaking of 2013, here's a Fun Fact (I think?):
September 11, 2013 tied the Atlantic basin record for the latest "1st hurricane of the year", when on September 11 Tropical Storm Humberto was the first TS that year to reach hurricane intensity. It's winds maxed out at 90 mph and was that seasons' strongest storm.

In fact, 2013 is about to school 2025 given that year produced its "D" storm on July 23 while 2025 just plods along. Of greater interest to me will be to see if 2025 similarly will exhibit one or more far E. Atlantic higher latitude quick recurves (reference T.S. Erin Aug 15, 2013). Such might suggest a further tendency for tropical waves exiting the African coast at particularly high latitudes.

I am taking the bait and going fishing /s

2013 wasn't just a shutdown of Atlantic activity, it completely shut down every single basin in the Northern Hemisphere that year (we never got out of a spring pattern, hence the constant wave breaking). We definitely do not have that issue this year. For example, the EPAC had a total of one major hurricane (late October) that entire year. We just saw 2 major hurricanes last month in the EPAC (two rapid intensification events, another reason this year is not like 2013) with the first ever major hurricane hitting Mexico in June OR July (basically the EPAC version of Beryl).

We learned a lot in 2013 (i.e., Canary Current is very important, warmth in the northwest Pacific is very important). I'll reference this composite of the top 10 most active seasons in June again:
https://i.imgur.com/X0Dh9g2.png

Compared to 2013:
https://i.imgur.com/TCrVocw.png

2013 forecasts focused on the MDR warmth, but there was nothing in the Canary Current to sustain it as we approached peak season. Also 2013 the NW Pacific has -SSTA, and the NE Pacific has +SSTA. This essentially neutralized the positive ENSO effects (another reason forecasters were bullish) by creating my favorite lexicon, thermohaline circulation disruption (and yes, we need Lexi on the list )

Those look identical/almost identical. I'm missing something.

Edit - NVM, they are quite different.

[TomballEd]

Now that I am seeing the maps of 2013 vs active, I'm noticing a neutral Atlantic subtropics is a feature of busy seasons and we don't have that. Nor do we have a neutral to cool Indian Ocean.

[USTropics]

Now that I am seeing the maps of 2013 vs active, I'm noticing a neutral Atlantic subtropics is a feature of busy seasons and we don't have that. Nor do we have a neutral to cool Indian Ocean.

https://i.imgur.com/2oRuuuz.png

You are absolutely right, those signals and others (e.g., Canary Current is slow this season to propagate warmth to the MDR region but we're starting to see that show up now) is a reason most forecasters went with an above-average seasonal forecast last month. A better comparison would be to use the first 20 days of July for active years, I just plotted that below:


Interestingly, we do start to get some warming in the subtropics in July, and we start to get this horseshoe look to the +SSTA pattern (a classic active signal during the positive AMO). So if the subtropics keeps cooling, and the MDR keeps warming the next few weeks (likely given forecasted zonal winds, more on that below), where are we in 2-3 weeks?

One of the cool things we've seen in July is a complete flip to a more active 'signal'. Literally, just check out how these zonal winds completely flipped in the North Atlantic after the first week of July as the Bermuda high weakened:





This is what is leading to the subtropics to 'cool' and the MDR to warm quickly.

It's also what broke down the trade wind flow and allowed for a more monsoonal look in the ITCZ (with surface flow even bending back eastwards), providing a decent environment for 94L. If this pattern persists into August and September, we're looking at a very active wave train and just need some sub seasonal forcing (e.g., MJO) to ignite these waves:

[Teban54]

The climatology period of this plot is awful. It'd be difficult to get a cool MDR with it

My current favorite for SST plots is Alex Boreham's website (cyclonicwx). Even there, both the Coral Reef Watch and OISST show pretty warm SSTAs:

(All images are GIF loops between CRW and OISST)

https://i.postimg.cc/Wbm78CyD/ezgif-61b01930d5c7cb.gif

It's only when global means are subtracted that the MDR returns to mostly neutral, but still a far cry from the negative "SSTA - Global Mean" that we saw earlier.

https://i.postimg.cc/sgw4dSss/ezgif-6275dee9c42b29.gif

There's also been very significant anomalous warming of MDR and the Canary Current lately. 15-day change:

https://i.postimg.cc/JnBNk2Jz/ezgif-651fac06493f9c.gif

I happen to be very familiar with that site . Thanks for the shoutout! CRW is pretty good once you give it a normal climatology. Impressive warming in the MDR for sure this month. We'll have to see if it can weaken that strong TUTT at all. That's the one thing that has really given me pause about this season. The Atlantic warming probably helps, but a lot of it is from outside the basin

Can't believe I spent all this time on the site without realizing that you are you Fantastic work with your website!!!