Area in the Northwestern Caribbean Sea

[cycloneye]

Northwestern Caribbean Sea:
A trough of low pressure could develop over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea during the middle part of this week. Environmental
conditions could support some slow development of the system
thereafter while it moves generally west-northwestward over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and toward the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[wxman57]

GFS remains on crack. Don't believe it.

[cane5]

After getting a consensus this weekend it would appear the high pressure system will weaken enough to allow it to bear north away from the Southern coast of Fla. So we need to start looking at where next should we be looking for development.

[tropicwatch]

GFS remains on crack. Don't believe it.

[SoupBone]

After getting a consensus this weekend it would appear the high pressure system will weaken enough to allow it to bear north away from the Southern coast of Fla. So we need to start looking at where next should we be looking for development.

I think you might be in the wrong thread.

[BobHarlem]

GFS Shifted left/south again (also GFS still keeps this thing around)

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1563930259384176640

[Blown Away]

Remarkable the GFS continues showing a massive MH run after run with little support from other models. Still long range, but you would expect some level of confidence with it showing something in the 4-5 day range.

[SoupBone]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1563930259384176640

Even the pros are laughing at the GFS.

[cycloneye]

Northwestern Caribbean Sea:
A trough of low pressure could develop over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea during the middle part of this week. Environmental
conditions could support some slow development of the system
thereafter while it moves generally west-northwestward over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and toward the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[Wampadawg]

Thinking out loud what if…..The GFS was calling its shot to the left field fence.

[ChrisH-UK]

The 12z ECMWF is starting to show signs of the possible development like at the 500mb vorticity. At the lower vorticity ECWMF has it more stretch out to a line over the gulf.

ECMWF 500mb Vort 96h


GFS 500mb Vort 96h

[Hammy]

The 12z ECMWF is starting to show signs of the possible development like at the 500mb vorticity. At the lower vorticity ECWMF has it more stretch out to a line over the gulf.

ECMWF 500mb Vort 96h
https://i.imgur.com/OdMjTTq.png

GFS 500mb Vort 96h
https://i.imgur.com/ssIiWlh.png

This would be a huge coup if the GFS ends up being right, and while I'm still very 'believe it when I see it' it's looking like at least greater than zero chance now

[ElectricStorm]

18z GFS once again shows a gulf monster. 942mb near the TX/MEX border. I'm still not buying it

[cycloneye]

The wiper effect on full swing with the phantom. Now is Brownsville with 942 mbs.

[aspen]

I think the GFS is pushing back this storm’s time frame a little bit. Originally, vorticity started picking up on August 30th, but now it’s August 31st on the last few model runs. This is still an unusually close-in timeframe for a phantom.

[NotSparta]

The 12z ECMWF is starting to show signs of the possible development like at the 500mb vorticity. At the lower vorticity ECWMF has it more stretch out to a line over the gulf.

ECMWF 500mb Vort 96h
https://i.imgur.com/OdMjTTq.png

GFS 500mb Vort 96h
https://i.imgur.com/ssIiWlh.png

Worth noting Venezuelan vorticity is a real thing, so it makes sense that there's a little bit on the Euro. What's generally not real is TCG from this source. Very strong GFS bias to develop stuff like this even though that never really actually happens

[cycloneye]

3. Northwestern Caribbean Sea:
A trough of low pressure could develop over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea during the middle part of this week. Environmental
conditions could support some slow development of the system
thereafter while it moves generally west-northwestward over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and toward the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

Maybe the trigger?

 https://twitter.com/reid_lt/status/1564071535253639168

[Clearcloudz]

Maybe the trigger?

https://twitter.com/reid_lt/status/1564071535253639168

Two heavy weights going at it lets see who wins. GFS is developing this in the modeling inside 5 days and begins the development at around day 3.