2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[wxman57]

No need to get defensive as far as potential seasonal numbers. What I'm suggesting is that the current state of the tropics vs. many past seasons is quite different. The ITCZ is flat - no waves coming off Africa. The MDR is still quite hostile, even as mid-August approaches, and the only change I'm seeing is an increasingly hostile MDR.

Something is "off" in the tropics this season. All the season analogs we've come up with suggest 10 or fewer storms. Of course, there's debate about whether Andrea should have ever been named, and further debate on whether Barry really was a hurricane. Current naming criteria seem a bit looser than in the past, which may account for 1-2 additional storms per season. This is my 40th year forecasting worldwide TCs, and what I'm seeing isn't suggestive of an above-normal number of storms in the Atlantic Basin. 30-yr average is 14/7/3, by the way.

I went back to take a look at TPW imagery form past seasons to compare with today. First, 2008 vs. 2019. Quite a difference. No waves in 2019. Much drier air over western Africa this August, too.



Now, last season. Same thing. Three active waves (BoC, Lesser Antilles, and by Africa) in 2018. Some evidence of a wave that was blown apart in the far east Atlantic.

[CyclonicFury]

No need to get defensive as far as potential seasonal numbers. What I'm suggesting is that the current state of the tropics vs. many past seasons is quite different. The ITCZ is flat - no waves coming off Africa. The MDR is still quite hostile, even as mid-August approaches, and the only change I'm seeing is an increasingly hostile MDR.

Something is "off" in the tropics this season. All the season analogs we've come up with suggest 10 or fewer storms. Of course, there's debate about whether Andrea should have ever been named, and further debate on whether Barry really was a hurricane. Current naming criteria seem a bit looser than in the past, which may account for 1-2 additional storms per season. This is my 40th year forecasting worldwide TCs, and what I'm seeing isn't suggestive of an above-normal number of storms in the Atlantic Basin. 30-yr average is 14/7/3, by the way.

I went back to take a look at TPW imagery form past seasons to compare with today. First, 2008 vs. 2019. Quite a difference. No waves in 2019. Much drier air over western Africa this August, too.

http://wxman57.com/images/2008.JPG

Now, last season. Same thing. Three active waves (BoC, Lesser Antilles, and by Africa) in 2018. Some evidence of a wave that was blown apart in the far east Atlantic.

http://wxman57.com/images/2018.JPG

Respectfully disagree. There have been plenty of strong tropical waves exiting Africa. Africa looks "dead" right now because the Atlantic/Africa is in the suppressed phase of the MJO. Rainfall in Africa has been near-above normal over the past several months.

As for the dry air, the MDR has been anomalously dry at 500mb over the past month, but precipitable water has been above normal. The Atlantic is hostile *right now* but as the sinking branch breaks down, SSTs warm further and shear remains near-below normal, we should see several storms in September.

[DioBrando]

Again, the subseasonal look is about as unfavorable as you can get, and IMO it's a bit of a knee jerk reaction to think that those conditions would lead to a dead season. The subseasonal look appears to get significantly more favorable, as we head into peak season

agreed with the ramp-up

[DioBrando]

No need to get defensive as far as potential seasonal numbers. What I'm suggesting is that the current state of the tropics vs. many past seasons is quite different. The ITCZ is flat - no waves coming off Africa. The MDR is still quite hostile, even as mid-August approaches, and the only change I'm seeing is an increasingly hostile MDR.

Something is "off" in the tropics this season. All the season analogs we've come up with suggest 10 or fewer storms. Of course, there's debate about whether Andrea should have ever been named, and further debate on whether Barry really was a hurricane. Current naming criteria seem a bit looser than in the past, which may account for 1-2 additional storms per season. This is my 40th year forecasting worldwide TCs, and what I'm seeing isn't suggestive of an above-normal number of storms in the Atlantic Basin. 30-yr average is 14/7/3, by the way.

I went back to take a look at TPW imagery form past seasons to compare with today. First, 2008 vs. 2019. Quite a difference. No waves in 2019. Much drier air over western Africa this August, too.

http://wxman57.com/images/2008.JPG

Now, last season. Same thing. Three active waves (BoC, Lesser Antilles, and by Africa) in 2018. Some evidence of a wave that was blown apart in the far east Atlantic.

http://wxman57.com/images/2018.JPG

Respectfully disagree. There have been plenty of strong tropical waves exiting Africa. Africa looks "dead" right now because the Atlantic is in the suppressed phase of the MJO. Rainfall in Africa has been near-above normal over the past several months.

As for the dry air, the MDR has been anomalously dry at 500mb over the past month, but precipitable water has been above normal. The Atlantic is hostile *right now* but as the sinking branch breaks down, SSTs warm further and shear remains near-below normal, we should see several storms in September.

I must also respectfully disagree with OP, we're literally in a suppressed phase of an MJO and the wave that came towards the Atlantic (CCKW) was a suppressed-type too, plus sinking motion.

Twitter, models, etc all expect the current conditions will peter out and I'm sticking with that prediction.

2008 was literally a la nina, you can't even compare 2008 with 2019.

The MJO phase is currently in an unfavorable state right now but should move to phase 1 within the coming weeks according to Twitter.

The MDR is actually improving based on models scoured off sites like tropical tidbits. yes, mid-august will get a hostile mdr at worst peak but models state improvement after that.

PMM is above average currently and has been like that since 2013. Every year is a different year in terms of expectations.


For now, I'm still muting season cancel posts. it's way too early to do that.

[wxman57]

My main point for using 2008 was that it WAS an active season. That's what an active season looked like in the second week of August. Conditions are quite different from 2008 right now. I think that the southeast and east U.S. coast may be at a slightly enhanced risk of a hurricane impact this season due to the MDR being less favorable for development and because hurricanes may develop farther north and west this season.

[northjaxpro]

My main point for using 2008 was that it WAS an active season. That's what an active season looked like in the second week of August. Conditions are quite different from 2008 right now. I think that the southeast and east U.S. coast may be at a slightly enhanced risk of a hurricane impact this season due to the MDR being less favorable for development and because hurricanes may develop farther north and west this season.

Really, that has bern the case thus far. Wind shear and SAL just have been too oersistent in the MDR.

One thing I do point out is that this is beginning to resemble the 1997 North Atlantc Season.

That season featured no tropical cyclone development in the month of August. Here we are about midway through the month now.. That would really be something to have that happen again, uh..
1997 also featured only a total of 8 named storms in the North Atlantic basin and just 3 hurricanes, one of which was a major ,(Erika)

[northjaxpro]

My main point for using 2008 was that it WAS an active season. That's what an active season looked like in the second week of August. Conditions are quite different from 2008 right now. I think that the southeast and east U.S. coast may be at a slightly enhanced risk of a hurricane impact this season due to the MDR being less favorable for development and because hurricanes may develop farther north and west this season.

Really, that has been the case thus far. Wind shear and SAL just have been too persistent in the MDR.

One thing I do point out is that this is beginning to resemble the 1997 North Atlantc Season.

That season featured no tropical cyclone development in the month of August. Here we are about midway through the month now.. That would really be something to have that happen again, huh..
1997 also featured only a total of 8 named storms in the North Atlantic basin and just 3 hurricanes, one of which was a major ,(Erika)

[DioBrando]

This will peter out any moment those waves start clearing up the dry air:

[SoupBone]

It's nearly mid-August, and all we have to discuss is the possibility of a weak frontal low off the SE U.S. Coast (or NE Gulf) that could be classified as a TD or a weak TS as it tracks out to sea. MDR through Caribbean is absolutely dead. TPW loop shows nothing - no waves. My coworker pointed out that the moisture over west Africa on the TPW loop is moving from west to east (backwards). Not sure why NOAA bumped its numbers up last week.

NHC 5-Day Map
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_5d0.png

Is this a season cancel post from one of our veteran pros prior to August 15th? Intriguing...

Of course not, but I see nothing to suggest an above-normal season numbers-wise. We may well see 10 or fewer named storms this season (depending on the NHC's current naming criteria). There have been many seasons in the past with fewer than normal storms but with major impacts (1957, 1965, 1992, etc.). I think the MDR will remain dead, but that shifts development potential toward the west Caribbean, Gulf, and off the SE U.S. Coast, where there won't be as much warning before landfall.

This is my concern. Barry didn't really afford us a whole lot of time, and these systems are very frustrating for emergency managers and other decision makers.

[CyclonicFury]

My main point for using 2008 was that it WAS an active season. That's what an active season looked like in the second week of August. Conditions are quite different from 2008 right now. I think that the southeast and east U.S. coast may be at a slightly enhanced risk of a hurricane impact this season due to the MDR being less favorable for development and because hurricanes may develop farther north and west this season.

Really, that has bern the case thus far. Wind shear and SAL just have been too oersistent in the MDR.

One thing I do point out is that this is beginning to resemble the 1997 North Atlantc Season.

That season featured no tropical cyclone development in the month of August. Here we are about midway through the month now.. That would really be something to have that happen again, uh..
1997 also featured only a total of 8 named storms in the North Atlantic basin and just 3 hurricanes, one of which was a major ,(Erika)

1997 was during a Super El Niño, 2019 is a dissipating Modoki Niño/warm neutral. Shear has been much lower than 1997 in the MDR and Caribbean.

I still believe the Atlantic won't be able to end August without a named storm.

[DioBrando]

My main point for using 2008 was that it WAS an active season. That's what an active season looked like in the second week of August. Conditions are quite different from 2008 right now. I think that the southeast and east U.S. coast may be at a slightly enhanced risk of a hurricane impact this season due to the MDR being less favorable for development and because hurricanes may develop farther north and west this season.

Really, that has bern the case thus far. Wind shear and SAL just have been too oersistent in the MDR.

One thing I do point out is that this is beginning to resemble the 1997 North Atlantc Season.

That season featured no tropical cyclone development in the month of August. Here we are about midway through the month now.. That would really be something to have that happen again, uh..
1997 also featured only a total of 8 named storms in the North Atlantic basin and just 3 hurricanes, one of which was a major ,(Erika)

1997 was during a Super El Niño, 2019 is a dissipating Modoki Niño/warm neutral. Shear has been much lower than 1997 in the MDR and Caribbean.

I still believe the Atlantic won't be able to end August without a named storm.

^ THIS.
Remember 2004?

[SoupBone]

My main point for using 2008 was that it WAS an active season. That's what an active season looked like in the second week of August. Conditions are quite different from 2008 right now. I think that the southeast and east U.S. coast may be at a slightly enhanced risk of a hurricane impact this season due to the MDR being less favorable for development and because hurricanes may develop farther north and west this season.

Really, that has bern the case thus far. Wind shear and SAL just have been too oersistent in the MDR.

One thing I do point out is that this is beginning to resemble the 1997 North Atlantc Season.

That season featured no tropical cyclone development in the month of August. Here we are about midway through the month now.. That would really be something to have that happen again, uh..
1997 also featured only a total of 8 named storms in the North Atlantic basin and just 3 hurricanes, one of which was a major ,(Erika)

SAL typically peaks in mid-July, and so far, he's still a very steady force out there right now. No signs yet of him going away anytime soon.

[DioBrando]

My main point for using 2008 was that it WAS an active season. That's what an active season looked like in the second week of August. Conditions are quite different from 2008 right now. I think that the southeast and east U.S. coast may be at a slightly enhanced risk of a hurricane impact this season due to the MDR being less favorable for development and because hurricanes may develop farther north and west this season.

Really, that has bern the case thus far. Wind shear and SAL just have been too oersistent in the MDR.

One thing I do point out is that this is beginning to resemble the 1997 North Atlantc Season.

That season featured no tropical cyclone development in the month of August. Here we are about midway through the month now.. That would really be something to have that happen again, uh..
1997 also featured only a total of 8 named storms in the North Atlantic basin and just 3 hurricanes, one of which was a major ,(Erika)

SAL typically peaks in mid-July, and so far, he's still a very steady force out there right now. No signs yet of him going away anytime soon.

or probably just taking longer than expected to peter out tbh

[northjaxpro]

Shear much lower in the Caribbean so far this season? Shear has been crippling.across the Caribbean to this juncture to me hasn't it? Or it is just me?

[CyclonicFury]

Shear much lower in the Caribbean so far this season? Shear has been crippling.across the Caribbean to this juncture to me hasn't it? Or it is just me?

Climo shear in the Caribbean from June-early August is quite high. Below average shear in the Caribbean during that time is still usually too strong to allow TC genesis.

[DioBrando]

Shear much lower in the Caribbean so far this season? Shear has been crippling.across the Caribbean to this juncture to me hasn't it? Or it is just me?

Go and have a look at the shear maps in tropical tidbits, or look at my previous posts for your answer.

[northjaxpro]

Shear much lower in the Caribbean so far this season? Shear has been crippling.across the Caribbean to this juncture to me hasn't it? Or it is just me?

Go and have a look at the shear maps in tropical tidbits, or look at my previous posts for your answer.

Whether if the shear is to the level of where it was 1997 or not down there, we will not know that truly in full extent until we end this current season. My point is that shear still has been very hostile to this point in the Caribbean and I don't see that slackening in the immediate short term down there.

[DioBrando]

Shear much lower in the Caribbean so far this season? Shear has been crippling.across the Caribbean to this juncture to me hasn't it? Or it is just me?

Go and have a look at the shear maps in tropical tidbits, or look at my previous posts for your answer.

Whether if the shear is to the level of where it was 1997 or not down there, we will not know that truly in full extent until we end this current season. My point is that shear still has been very hostile to this point in the Caribbean and I don't see that slackening in the immediate short term down there.

and

[CyclonicFury]

Shear much lower in the Caribbean so far this season? Shear has been crippling.across the Caribbean to this juncture to me hasn't it? Or it is just me?

Go and have a look at the shear maps in tropical tidbits, or look at my previous posts for your answer.

Whether if the shear is to the level of where it was 1997 or not down there, we will not know that truly in full extent until we end this current season. My point is that shear still has been very hostile to this point in the Caribbean and I don't see that slackening in the immediate short term down there.

 https://twitter.com/CyclonicFury/status/1160651099768070144

[DioBrando]

it's not the shear that's the problem, in fact, it's been far lower than last year. it's the suppressed CCKWs and MJO phases that are a problem, promoting dry air and sinking air and currently enhancing activity in asia. once the MJO moves near phase 1, which isn't that far away from now, conditions WILL, and I MEAN WILL, improve.

want to know why models currently (in the short term) are favoring activity near asia? because they have real current conditions to pick up on rather than projected activity/trends! there's something concrete! it'll configure once you'll see it!

around this time last year there were also many season cancel posts but florence and the gang turned up.

before hector and lane last year, models were showing nothing in the long term but hector and lane showed up, and so did norman, olivia, etc.