2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

[Kingarabian]

that warm horseshoe look

[url]https://i.imgur.com/cxY5VDo.png[/rl]

Do the anomalies east of Africa count in the AMO presentation?

[NotSparta]

that warm horseshoe look

[url]https://i.imgur.com/cxY5VDo.png[/rl]

Do the anomalies east of Africa count in the AMO presentation?

Typically, but in the 2nd EOF, the anomalies tend to be cool off Africa, basically a north-shifted version of your usual +AMO

[Kingarabian]

that warm horseshoe look

[url]https://i.imgur.com/cxY5VDo.png[/rl]

Do the anomalies east of Africa count in the AMO presentation?

Typically, but in the 2nd EOF, the anomalies tend to be cool off Africa, basically a north-shifted version of your usual +AMO

Oh word.

[CyclonicFury]

While Barry alone doesn't likely say anything about the upcoming activity of this season - it developed from a non-tropical system that originated over land - there are some ominous indicators so far this month. MDR and Caribbean shear has sharply dropped to below normal levels, indicating that El Nino's influence is beginning to fade. The Atlantic SST profile has also turned more +AMO in the past two months, with the MDR/Caribbean warming, the western subtropical Atlantic cooling, and the far north Atlantic warming. It's still more of a 2nd EOF +AMO, with the warm horseshoe displaced to the north, but a distinct warm horseshoe is visible in SSTA maps. Considering the shear has already decreased significantly and models have come into good agreement that El Nino will likely be fully gone by peak, I don't see it having any major lingering effects on the season.

A slightly above average season seems like the best bet at the moment, IMO. I don't think a hyperactive season is particularly likely, because the MDR isn't overwhelmingly warmer than normal like most hyperactive years (1995, 2004, 2005, 2010, 2017, etc.). Also, aside from the CFS which has backed off this signature recently, most climate models show a relatively dry MDR and Caribbean for the ASO period. This was not the case in 2017. Instability has also been significantly below normal in the Caribbean and MDR for much of the summer, and we have not yet had a TC form from a tropical source yet.

A season like 2016 seems fairly reasonable the rest of the way, with the Atlantic occasionally struggling with dry air and large-scale subsidence. The MDR featured a lot of struggling storms that year. Although 2016 had a cooler ENSO than 2019 will likely have, it's one of the few recent years that seems to have both +AMO and +PDO at the same time. However, no analog is perfect - so far the EPAC hasn't been explosive in July like it was in 2016, and the Atlantic had an active June and dead July in 2016 when this year has been the reverse.

[StruThiO]

Will the decrease last?

[TheStormExpert]

I’m starting to sense a season with a lot of weak struggling to live systems. We’ve already seen both Andrea (which didn’t even last a day), and Barry (which was supposedly a hurricane for only three hours) struggle to obtain their peak intensity.

[CyclonicFury]

I’m starting to sense a season with a lot of weak struggling to live systems. We’ve already seen both Andrea (which didn’t even last a day), and Barry (which was supposedly a hurricane for only three hours) struggle to obtain their peak intensity.

I don't think that really means much of anything. June and July are typically quiet months and there have been above average seasons that had even less ACE than this year so far. 2017 had the lowest ACE on record for the first five storms, but followed with 10 consecutive hurricanes and the most ACE in a month on record.

[StruThiO]

I’m starting to sense a season with a lot of weak struggling to live systems. We’ve already seen both Andrea (which didn’t even last a day), and Barry (which was supposedly a hurricane for only three hours) struggle to obtain their peak intensity.

It's only mid July

[shiny-pebble]

I’m starting to sense a season with a lot of weak struggling to live systems. We’ve already seen both Andrea (which didn’t even last a day), and Barry (which was supposedly a hurricane for only three hours) struggle to obtain their peak intensity.

It's July what do you expect?

Sent from my LG-H700 using Tapatalk

[Hammy]

I’m starting to sense a season with a lot of weak struggling to live systems. We’ve already seen both Andrea (which didn’t even last a day), and Barry (which was supposedly a hurricane for only three hours) struggle to obtain their peak intensity.

1998-2002 all had little to nothing by this point: 1998 nothing until late July, 1999 nothing before August 18 except short-lived Arlene in June, 2000 nothing before August save for two short-lived depressions in June, 2001 nothing but Allison before August, and 2002 nothing until July 14. And 2004 came hours away from not having so much as a depression before August.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1150746974506893313

[psyclone]

I’m starting to sense a season with a lot of weak struggling to live systems. We’ve already seen both Andrea (which didn’t even last a day), and Barry (which was supposedly a hurricane for only three hours) struggle to obtain their peak intensity.

This post is an essential component of the hurricane season flow chart:
A.) pre season hype and excitement
B.) an early season slop storm
C.) a broad moat that separates the slop storm season from the "real" season during which little or nothing happens (you are here now)... AKA season cancel season. It is during this time that season cancel posts will begin to appear...innocuous at first before full blown panic establishes itself (wait for the 2013 comparisons to be trotted out...they're coming).
D.) the "real" hurricane season manifests. It is during this time that those using 2013 analogs will flip to 2005 or 2017 analogs. This typically begins around the time of Dr Gray's infamous bell ringing on August 20.
I have consistently been a believer in an active season but am bearish between now and mid august...leaving us a solid month of season cancel conditions. The above referenced pattern is predictable every year because history does repeat itself. We must crawl before we can walk. Meanwhile conditions in the Atlantic look more favorable today than they did at the beginning of the season. Keep your eye on the field of play and not the scoreboard...the latter is meaningless at this juncture.

[CyclonicFury]

I’m starting to sense a season with a lot of weak struggling to live systems. We’ve already seen both Andrea (which didn’t even last a day), and Barry (which was supposedly a hurricane for only three hours) struggle to obtain their peak intensity.

This post is an essential component of the hurricane season flow chart:
A.) pre season hype and excitement
B.) an early season slop storm
C.) a broad moat that separates the slop storm season from the "real" season during which little or nothing happens (you are here now)... AKA season cancel season. It is during this time that season cancel posts will begin to appear...innocuous at first before full blown panic establishes itself (wait for the 2013 comparisons to be trotted out...they're coming).
D.) the "real" hurricane season manifests. It is during this time that those using 2013 analogs will flip to 2005 or 2017 analogs. This typically begins around the time of Dr Gray's infamous bell ringing on August 20.
I have consistently been a believer in an active season but am bearish between now and mid august...leaving us a solid month of season cancel conditions. The above referenced pattern is predictable every year because history does repeat itself. We must crawl before we can walk. Meanwhile conditions in the Atlantic look more favorable today than they did at the beginning of the season. Keep your eye on the field of play and not the scoreboard...the latter is meaningless at this juncture.

No matter what the circumstances, it seems like 2013 comparisons always pop up if the Atlantic has a lull before the peak of the season. Despite having two July hurricanes last year, August was remarkably quiet and there was a lot of talk with how unfavorable the Atlantic appeared that the Atlantic may not even have a major hurricane. The Atlantic had 6 hurricanes after September 1, and finished above normal in activity. This was also the case in 2017 after Harvey struggled in the deep tropics and opened up into a wave. It was also the case in 2016 when September had very little ACE. It happens every year.

[cycloneye]

Yikes! I smell this tweet will cause a big discussion.

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1150771128773828609

[AnnularCane]

Yikes! I smell this tweet will cause a big discussion.

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1150771128773828609

Can you dumb that down a bit for the less meteorologically educated?

[CyclonicFury]

Yikes! I smell this tweet will cause a big discussion.

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1150771128773828609

Of the models, CFSv2 is showing by far the most favorable Atlantic. It shows an ENSO-neutral pattern and near-slightly above normal rainfall in the MDR for the peak of the season. It does show a dry Caribbean, though. The UKMET/ECMWF has a much less favorable look, but these models keep ENSO warmer.

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1150793644678373377

[chaser1]

Yikes! I smell this tweet will cause a big discussion.

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1150793644678373377

Thanks Ben Nol but please tell the ECMWF+UKMET 'superblend, that they're a bit late for the hay-ride. The active CONUS home-brew speculation party started about 2 months ago.

[cycloneye]

Yikes! I smell this tweet will cause a big discussion.

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1150771128773828609

Can you dumb that down a bit for the less meteorologically educated?

In simple words,Atlantic would be favorable in August/September if CFSv2 is right.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1151091206841098240

[StruThiO]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1151067007342776320