2015 EPAC Season

[Yellow Evan]

Model support from the GFS and its ensembles is increasing on the possibility of one system around June 28, and 1-2 more in early July.

[srainhoutx]

Model support from the GFS and its ensembles is increasing on the possibility of one system around June 28, and 1-2 more in early July.

With a robust CCKW and a favorable MJO pulse arriving late June into early July, it appears favorable for development into the Eastern Pacific.

[Yellow Evan]

Model support from the GFS and its ensembles is increasing on the possibility of one system around June 28, and 1-2 more in early July.

With a robust CCKW and a favorable MJO pulse arriving late June into early July, it appears favorable for development into the Eastern Pacific.

Correct. We have the proper combination of a CCKW, followed by the MJO. Very similar to what we observed in late July/early August last year.

Models still aren't that aggressive yet. Will get more bullish as time goes own though prons.

[gatorcane]

models still not showing anything of interest in the EPAC. I find this to be a bit strange given how fast of a start the EPAC got off to and with conditions looking good (Kelvin wave, warmer than normal SSTs, etc).

[Yellow Evan]

Not sure if the GFS is recognizing the Kelvin Wave yet.

[Yellow Evan]

Also worth pointing it out that the MJO pulse has been delayed a bit, seems far-fetched a little with the warm EPAC waters, but all models agree on it

[Kingarabian]

Waiting for the Cape Verde season to start as well.

[TheStormExpert]

Waiting for the Cape Verde season to start as well.

Well you might be waiting awhile.

[Yellow Evan]

Waiting for the Cape Verde season to start as well.

Hah, what would even be the EPAC's CV? The EPAC MDR is around 110-120W 10-15N.

[Alyono]

MU showing nothing through the next 16 days

[Yellow Evan]

MU showing nothing through the next 16 days

None of the models bring MJO around for the next two weeks.

[gatorcane]

MU still nothing for the EPAC for 16 days.

[Yellow Evan]

Good news is that the GFS brings the shear down in two weeks, which is preventing storms right now.

[Yellow Evan]

MJO has only just reached Northern Australia usually goes io...wp...cpac...epac...atl would expect the models to show epac come alive 1st week of july atm its to dry.

MJO is suppose to stall in phase 6/7 so in the CPAC sorta. But we still have CCKW's.

[Yellow Evan]

Only a few weeks ago some mjo models where weakening it out before it moves into the westpac the ncep spaghetti has a out liner signal closing in on 8.

I expect the MJO would arrive in the epac in about roughly 14 -16 days time when it does i would expect a strong pressure gradient where the MJO meets trade winds this coupled with strong SE'ers from the SH highs that turn sw when crossing the equator will send the epac into overdrive.

Its all good bro not expecting you to agree with any of that above

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I actually do , since that appears the most likely situation right now. Will note that MJO in phase 6/7 could spark some CCKW's./ EPAC is still worth watching despite no model support, but I'm not seeing anything too likely until shear calms down in 5 days, likde what the GFS/CMC show.

[CaliforniaResident]

We are in the "calm before the storm"- Once the EPAC goes back into the active mode, it will spit out storms non-stop like the Atlantic did in 2005; I stand by my prediction of 33/22/11 and the landfall of hurricane Waldo in a place where you least expect it in early to mid October.

[Yellow Evan]

We are in the "calm before the storm"- Once the EPAC goes back into the active mode, it will spit out storms non-stop like the Atlantic did in 2005; I stand by my prediction of 33/22/11 and the landfall of hurricane Waldo in a place where you least expect it in early to mid October.

I agree with the first part.

After 2005, I don't agree.

[CaliforniaResident]

We are in the "calm before the storm"- Once the EPAC goes back into the active mode, it will spit out storms non-stop like the Atlantic did in 2005; I stand by my prediction of 33/22/11 and the landfall of hurricane Waldo in a place where you least expect it in early to mid October.

I agree with the first part.

After 2005, I don't agree.

It's not impossible:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1858_San_Diego_hurricane

[Yellow Evan]

We are in the "calm before the storm"- Once the EPAC goes back into the active mode, it will spit out storms non-stop like the Atlantic did in 2005; I stand by my prediction of 33/22/11 and the landfall of hurricane Waldo in a place where you least expect it in early to mid October.

I agree with the first part.

After 2005, I don't agree.

It's not impossible:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1858_San_Diego_hurricane

I have my doubts that 1858 made it up there as a hurricane. Seems way too far fetched, since the SST gradient is so sharp.

However, there is some evidence that 1858 took a super rare path and went up the GOC before hitting northern Baja and brushing the Southland, which is still a bit far-fetched, but doable I guess.

[Yellow Evan]

0z CMC shows a storm by day 10 for only the second run in about a week.