2014 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

First time since July 1 there is no active tropical cyclones...and none is forecast to develop in the near future as per latest runs from euro and gfs...

[euro6208]

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/highresorad/

Beautiful...JMA has launched their new high-resolution radar!

[euro6208]

The sleeping monster is dormant and in recharge mode...

[euro6208]

Shear forecast to lessen even more and is below normal climatologically at this time of year which could spell trouble down the road...All the ingredients is there for continued active and destructive season enhanced potentially by a 2 year el nino...

[euro6208]

--------------------------------------



--------------------------------------



--------------------------------------



--------------------------------------



--------------------------------------



Kelvin wave coming back 1st to 2nd week of September and MJO is just behind it and last up to the middle of October!

[euro6208]

GFS and EURO will forever be the superiors but it's time to talk about CMC---develops a train of cyclones just east of the Marianas

[euro6208]

Interesting area of convection near the dateline that has persisted for well over 24 hours. SST is perfect and shear is low but headed for an area of increased shear. Something to watch.

[euro6208]

Invest soon?



72 hour forecast has this just northeast of Chuuk and another low develops near the dateline...



Vorticity is really strong...

Shear is favorable with an anticyclone located right over it and latest MIMIC-TPW shows a well defined cyclonic circulation with increasing moisture...

[euro6208]

EURO and GFS shows nothing...

CMC does develop this but a slow one...Doesn't reach peak intensity until it is north of the Northern Marianas where it deepens to 979 mb

[euro6208]

looks like our system of interest is worser now as it moves into an area of higher shear although it does have a defined circulation...

[euro6208]

No cyclone development in latest runs from GFS and EURO...Not surprising since the MJO is stuck in the Indian Ocean and forecast to move to the west not east towards our area. Forecast also calls for this dry MJO to strengthen and likely will be that way until the first week of September...

[somethingfunny]

With all the talk about how quiet the Atlantic has been so far this August.... The WPAC has had nothing but Nakri! Halong formed in July and Genevieve formed in the East... and Nakri was very unorthodox. How unusual is a WPAC doldrum in August like this?

[Yellow Evan]

With all the talk about how quiet the Atlantic has been so far this August.... The WPAC has had nothing but Nakri! Halong formed in July and Genevieve formed in the East... and Nakri was very unorthodox. How unusual is a WPAC doldrum in August like this?

You can blame unfavorable MJO.

[euro6208]

It will be a while until we see the real season start...Look at that 2C! Plus Kelvin wave will be absent too...

Those SST's will probrably increase significantly which will aid massive development when the next MJO comes...

[euro6208]

Having the largest and warmest waters in the world and a large OHC that extend to great depths does wonders ...

Since 2001, 51% of all Western Pacific systems reaching tropical storm strength or greater experienced RI.

[euro6208]

000
FXPQ60 PGUM 180843
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
643 PM CHST MON AUG 18 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS HEADING NORTHWESTWARD FROM
CHUUK TOWARD THE FORECAST ZONES. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH HEADS
NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE PHILIPPINE SEA THROUGH THE NORTHERN CNMI.
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS MOVING WESTWARD AWAY
FROM THE MARINE ZONES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY TWEAK TO THE FORECAST WAS TO ADD THUNDER TO THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE REMAINS OF THE CHUUK TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE PASS THROUGH. SYSTEM LOOKS TOO DISORGANIZED TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AS IT PASSES THROUGH...BUT NIGHT SHIFT
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SYSTEM FOR ANY SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. OTHERWISE...STILL EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. STILL EXPECT LOOSELY ORGANIZED
MONSOON DEPRESSION TO FORM IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK. PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MENTION OF THUNDER
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IF THE MONSOON DEPRESSION SETS UP IN A
FAVORABLE LOCATION AND IT GENERATES ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
MARINE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS VERY TRANQUIL WITH COMBINED SEAS
HOVERING NEAR 3 FEET. STILL EXPECT LOW RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SURFACE RIDGING AND DRIER WEATHER IS BUILDING IN OVER KOSRAE AND
POHNPEI THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH NEAR POHNPEI
CONTINUES WEST. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
HERE. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT FOR MAJURO. THIS FEATURE
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT WEST THROUGH THURSDAY...KEEPING MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES IN THE FORECAST UNTIL THURSDAY THERE. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
OVER KOSRAE AND POHNPEI BY LATE WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS MAINTAIN
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THESE LOCALES. NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE
LONG-TERM FORECAST FOR KOSRAE AND POHNPEI AS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THEN. STILL EXPECT WEAK TRADE-WIND
REGIME TO CONTINUE OVER MAJURO THROUGH DAY 5.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR CHUUK CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS BETWEEN CHUUK AND GUAM THIS EVENING. CHUUK SAW A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TONIGHT. GENTLE WINDS AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. AT KOROR AND YAP...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS SLOWLY
MOVING WEST. VIS SATELLITE SHOWS ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS WITH THIS
FEATURE. SIMILARLY...MODELS STILL PROG BENIGN CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MCELROY/M. AYDLETT

[euro6208]

Nothing significant from Euro and GFS...




Look what CMC has 2 systems, One west and other east of the Marianas...

[euro6208]

[xtyphooncyclonex]

That monster is still sleeping, and could wake up soon.

Right now, it is the East Pacific that has nearly all the tropical cyclone activity in the globe, and the basin is hyperactive.

But we are still ahead in terms of ACE, and still above normal (118%) which is at 128.

[euro6208]

Models indicate that this large dry MJO will continue and possible strengthen a bit more next month which will likely suppress any development. EURO and GFS continue to show no development...

Really favorable right now as shear is very low in many parts of the WPAC, ocean is excellent and abundant moisture covering a large area...It just needs a little kick to jumpstart