TS Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread 12

[SouthFloridawx]

You all need to read this discussion very very very carefully.

279
WTNT45 KNHC 270900
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
500 AM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006

BIG CHANGES IN BOTH THE INITIAL INTENSITY AND FORECAST TRACK WERE
REQUIRED...UNFORTUNATELY...FOR THIS ADVISORY. LATEST RECON DATA
INDICATE ERNESTO IS LIKELY UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION. AN EYE
IS FORMING AND MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 78 KT WERE
RECENTLY OBSERVED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...WHICH EQUALS ABOUT 62
KT SURFACE WINDS...SO ERNESTO IS VERY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE
EYE IS SO SMALL...HOWEVER...THAT THE FLIGHT CREW HAVE BEEN UNABLE
TO PROPERLY ASSESS THE MINIMUM SURFACE PRESSURE. THE SATELLITE
APPEARANCE HAS BECOME QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH LITTLE OR NO VERTICAL
SHEAR NOTED ON THE SYSTEM NOW...AND CIRRUS OUTFLOW EXPANDING
OUTWARD IN ALL QUADRANTS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 295/08...BASED ON A
12-HOUR AVERAGE MOTION. THE CENTER HAS BEEN REFORMING CLOSER TO THE
STRONG CONVECTIVE BURSTS WITH CLOUD TOPS AS COLD AS -85C. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT ADDITIONAL REFORMATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER CLOSER
TO THE CENTER OF THE ROUND CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS COULD BRING
ERNESTO OVER OR VERY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI LATER
TODAY. FOR THAT REASON...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
SOUTHWESTERN HAITI. NOW FOR THE REST OF THE BAD NEWS...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE RIGHT OR EAST
OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...ESPECIALLY AT 96 AND 120 HOURS..AND NOW
TAKES ERNESTO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE CONSENSUS OF THE
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES THAT A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL DIG
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
CAUSING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED OVER FLORIDA AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TO GRADUALLY ERODE EASTWARD. THE GFS AND NOGAPS
MODELS APPEAR TO BE ERODING THE RIDGE TO QUICKLY AND HAVE ERNESTO
OVER SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA IN 84 HOURS. THE REST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE TAKES THE CYCLONE FARTHER WESTWARD OVER OR WEST OF THE
LOWER FLORIDA KEYS. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS
NOW AGREE ON RECURVATURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AROUND 96
HOURS...AND TAKE ERNESTO NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL OR
NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA BY 120 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS
SIMILAR TO BUT A LITTLE WEST OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST WAS AS EQUALLY DIFFICULT TO PREPARE AS THE
TRACK FORECAST WAS...AND IT HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK
THAT ERNESTO TAKES DUE TO LAND INTERACTION WITH HAITI AND CUBA.
EXCLUDING LAND INTERACTION...THE ENVIRONMENTAL AND OCEAN CONDITIONS
CURRENT AND FORECAST TO BE AFFECTING ERNESTO ARE HIGHLY CONDUCIVE
FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR TERM...AND FOR THE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE LONGER TERM. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS
RAPIDLY DECREASING WHILE THE OUTFLOW IS RAPIDLY EXPANDING. IN FACT
...OUTFLOW CHANNELS HAVE NOW DEVELOPED TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF
ERNESTO...WITH A THIRD CHANNEL POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TO THE WEST AND
INTO AN UPPER-LOW MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD TOWARD THE YUCATAN. THIS
VERY FAVORABLE LOW-SHEAR AND ENHANCED OUTFLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST
BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TO PERSIST RIGHT UP UNTIL LANDFALL
ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. IF ERNESTO DOESN'T LINGER OVER CUBA
FOR MORE THAN 24 HOURS...THEN MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH SEEMS LIKELY
BY 96-108 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BUT
HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE INTENSITY
MODEL FORECASTS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/0900Z 17.0N 73.1W 60 KT
12HR VT 27/1800Z 17.8N 74.5W 70 KT
24HR VT 28/0600Z 19.3N 76.3W 85 KT
36HR VT 28/1800Z 20.6N 78.1W 85 KT
48HR VT 29/0600Z 22.1N 80.2W 70 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 30/0600Z 24.4N 83.1W 80 KT
96HR VT 31/0600Z 26.5N 84.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 01/0600Z 30.0N 81.5W 70 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Normandy]

Where is my crow.
My goodness

I dont like this at all, Ernesto is rapidly strengthening, and ironically its environment is about to be ideal after being horrific.

[BensonTCwatcher]

I am not really that surprised at the track at this point. I have been looking at the GFDL on this storm and so far it has been pretty close. The Forecast position and strenght of the ridge by the globals might have been overdone out 72 hrs ( surprise) Still a dicey synoptic setup.

One thing to note is the erosion of the ridge over the FL peninsula. The disturbance off the GA coast is having an effect there. The GFDL has been picking up on that.

[Thunder44]

It's a hurricane now. There was an update:

Statement as of 5:04 am EDT on August 27, 2006

...Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicates that Tropical Storm Ernesto has now reached hurricane strength...


recent dropsonde and flight-level wind data from an Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained
winds in Tropical Storm Ernesto have increased to 75 mph. This
makes Ernesto a category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
hurricane scale.

[jhamps10]

well, that makes it offical.

[Sanibel]

Ernesto is finding a favorable overhead. You can see by the outflow veiling to its west side seen in the "ribbed" pattern emerging from its periphery.

No surprise it is now hurricane. And is about to hit a favorable pocket of high SST's north of Jamaica.

Again - no surprise it has beaten NHC's intensity projection and also track (albiet slightly).

[HouTXmetro]

So much for my Morgan City LA landfall. you guys better get ready on the penninsula, not alot of time left to prepare.

[SouthFloridawx]

ALL I HAVE TO SAY IS THERE IS SO MUCH CROW GOING TO BE HANDED OUT IT IS NOT FUNNY. THEY ARE GOING TO BE EXTINCT AFTER THIS.

[BensonTCwatcher]

That shortwave trough was not on the map last night, and hence the big shift in the long term. It looks as though Cuba may be the best chance to weaken the storm before a FL landfall. The upper air conditions are all on go at this point. There is still time for another synoptic change too.

I admit I'll be highly surprised by a another track shift significantly east.

[Normandy]

ALL I HAVE TO SAY IS THERE IS SO MUCH CROW GOING TO BE HANDED OUT IT IS NOT FUNNY. THEY ARE GOING TO BE EXTINCT AFTER THIS.

I already ate some.

[BensonTCwatcher]

ALL I HAVE TO SAY IS THERE IS SO MUCH CROW GOING TO BE HANDED OUT IT IS NOT FUNNY. THEY ARE GOING TO BE EXTINCT AFTER THIS.

LOL Yup Yup

[SouthFloridawx]

ALL I HAVE TO SAY IS THERE IS SO MUCH CROW GOING TO BE HANDED OUT IT IS NOT FUNNY. THEY ARE GOING TO BE EXTINCT AFTER THIS.

I already ate some.

You didn't even ask for sauce... ewww.

[caneman]

Dahgummit why did I have to awake to this.

[BensonTCwatcher]

I thought a big bend FL strike looked likely. I did not see this crossing the peninsula.

....Pass me a wing and the Texas Pete....

[dwg71]

ewg is going to blow a gasket when he wakes up.

It appears to even be headed north of points and will infact hit Haiti, ever so slightly.

[Sanibel]

As I said yesterday all day _ "I expect this to keep going right of track" To which many "experts" replied "Hurricanes don't plow through ridges."

[BensonTCwatcher]

They don't really, but strong stroms can move through weak eroding peripheries. How many times have we seen an overcooked ridge on the GFS?

[caneman]

As I said yesterday all day _ "I expect this to keep going right of track" To which many "experts" replied "Hurricanes don't plow through ridges."

Look at all my posts to Sanibel. No one was listening. I kept saying NOGAPS was consistant and GFS probably wants anymore in area than any of the others but no takers.

[caneman]

ewg is going to blow a gasket when he wakes up.

It appears to even be headed north of points and will infact hit Haiti, ever so slightly.

Yeah and I believe Bailey too.

[Sanibel]

This is a nightmare if it skirts north of Cuba and then hits the ridge. It could then do a Donna-like track up the west coast of Florida after bombing in the hot Florida Straits.