We may have to watch the southern end of this ull near cuba. If a split does occure here and the southern half stays in the GOM/Florida Straights we got:
Lower Level Convergence
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8conv.html
Upper Level Divergence
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dvg.html
Decreasing Windshear Tendency
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html
Only 5-10kts of shear over that area currently.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html
Vorticity in the 850mb levels also
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor4.html
After the Trough moves out and a currently weakening Atlantic Ridge on the west side... this would leave the southern end with little stearing currents and then as High pressure builds in behind it will provide favorable conditions for this thing in the near future ala 36-48 hours from now. Possibly longer.
I would not be suprised if there would be a chance for something to form in a couple of days.
This area near the Bahamas is impressive
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