Area in the Northwestern Caribbean Sea

[NDG]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/494079865050497041/1013026798981890118/unknown.png

GFS will not give up on this wave

What is continuously doing is wanting to develop a low pressure out of no where after the wave axis crashes over C.A., as if it is having issues with convective feedback. The rest of the models show a surge of easterly winds in the western the Caribbean following the wave axis after it crashed into C.A., there is no way a low pressure will form following the wave axis. It has been doing that all season long ever since the CAG back in the early season.

[tropicwatch]

Kind of surprised the NHC still has this area highlighted.

[ScottNAtlanta]

There is a huge blowup of convection in the GOM. That isn't associated with this wave but maybe the one that was in front of it? There is also a small ULL just to the east of the YP that seems to be ventilating the GOM convection.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Here's a GFS trend graphic for the past 7 days, focused on next Sunday, Sept. 4. With each run, it's like pulling the handle of a slot machine to see what pops up. GFS is still the only model forecasting any development in the western Caribbean and/or Gulf. It also doesn't develop the wave in the Tropical Atlantic that all the other models are developing.

http://wxman57.com/images/GFSTrend.gif

GFS Global Forecast SlotMachine

[SoupBone]

GFS continues to go further south with each run. It's finally agreeing with the ensembles and playing catch up.

[tolakram]

I guess one might say that a lobe of vorticity jumps out of Columbia, interacts with this wave, and forms a storm. Maybe??

[Hammy]

Kind of surprised the NHC still has this area highlighted.

They have a tendency of prioritizing the NCEP models with the outlooks

[cycloneye]

Edited the title of thread to add the new location that NHC has and that is the NW Caribbean.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea:
A trough of low pressure could develop over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea during the early or middle part of next week.
Environmental conditions could support some slow development of the
system thereafter while it moves generally west-northwestward over
the northwestern Caribbean Sea and toward the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[wxman57]

Looking more and more likely that this is a GFS phantom storm. Not buying it. System in MDR is the real deal.

[cycloneye]

3. Northwestern Caribbean Sea:
A trough of low pressure could develop over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea during the early or middle part of next week.
Environmental conditions could support some slow development of the
system thereafter while it moves generally west-northwestward over
the northwestern Caribbean Sea and toward the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[Craters]

18Z GFS looks weaker, still taking it into Mexico via the BoC.

[Keldeo1997]

Not again....

[SoupBone]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/716215692617187328/1013296462450413639/unknown.png

Not again....

The GFS has been horrible with these runs. I really hope some of its issues are resolved in the off-season.

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

Man, this is going to either be a massive coup from the GFS in spotting the potential of the tropical wave developing between Nicaragua and Jamaica, or a massive bust that illustrates just how far off the current iteration of the model is in regards to tropical cyclogenesis. Timeframe keeps moving up and there is an actual source (the aforementioned tropical wave) to this modeled system (therefore not really a phantom)... but it's hard to commit to supporting the GFS as long as it stands alone in development. Would like to see more support from the EPS/Euro and maybe other short-term models before getting confident in this wave, but I guess that explains the low probability the NHC has assigned to this area.

Another situation where we have to wait and see what develops along the wave axis and if something can manage to close it off, particularly on the NE side. Still a few days out at least before GFS shows explicit TCG.

[ElectricStorm]

New TWO

3. Northwestern Caribbean Sea:
A trough of low pressure could develop over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea during the early or middle part of the week.
Environmental conditions could support some slow development of the
system thereafter while it moves generally west-northwestward over
the northwestern Caribbean Sea and toward the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Dylan]

The GFS is insistent on a major in the Gulf next weekend and nobody is talking about it.

[BobHarlem]

6Z GFS is quite a bit north, getting very close to Texas. GFS is alone in this, though. Wednesday is the first day anything discernible shows up on the GFS, if it's phantom it's running out of days.

[tolakram]

The GFS is insistent on a major in the Gulf next weekend and nobody is talking about it.

I don't believe it, even though it's been really consistent. I suppose if I must think it's correct I would show the consistency in the current 72 hour forecast from the GFS.

72 hours from now trend


5 day trend

[South Texas Storms]

The GFS is insistent on a major in the Gulf next weekend and nobody is talking about it.

We're talking about it. Letting our clients know development is unlikely from this disturbance and give it a 10% chance of development. Likely another GFS phantom.

[tolakram]

I believe other modes show this as well, but it's over land or in the EPAC.