2015 EPAC Season

[Extratropical94]

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form during the next
couple of days a few hundred miles south or southwest of the
Gulf of Tehuantepec. Environmental conditions are conducive for
gradual development of this system while it moves slowly
northwestward or northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

[cycloneye]

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms several hundred miles south
of the Gulf of Tehuantepec are associated with a trough of low
prssure. Environmental conditions are forecast to become conducive
for some development of this system by midweek while it moves slowly
northwestward or northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS dropped this idea.

[Yellow Evan]

HWRF brings it over the upwelled area.

[Yellow Evan]

Disorganized shower activity continues several hundred miles south
of the Gulf of Tehuantepec in association with a trough of low
pressure. Upper-level winds are expected to be generally favorable
for development over the next several days as the system moves
slowly northwestward or northward, although any development of this
system should be slow to occur.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

[galaxy401]

I wonder if this will be a continuing pattern throughout the season: Disturbance forms south of Mexico and later becomes a hurricane. As it weakens and dissipates, another one forms near the same region and rinse and repeat.

[Yellow Evan]

I wonder if this will be a continuing pattern throughout the season: Disturbance forms south of Mexico and later becomes a hurricane. As it weakens and dissipates, another one forms near the same region and rinse and repeat.

That was the EPAC during it's active phase as well pretty much.

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS keeps this system weak but has it landfalling by day .

[Yellow Evan]

Disorganized shower activity continues several hundred miles south
of the Gulf of Tehuantepec in association with a trough of low
pressure. Upper-level winds are expected to be conducive for
tropical cyclone formation over the next several days as this system
moves slowly northwestward or northward, although any development of
of this disturbance should be slow to occur.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

[cycloneye]

Invest 94E is up

[Yellow Evan]

GFS has MJO back over the EPAC end of month. Seems to me it'll be stuck over the IO or EPAC all year at this rate.

[Hurricaneman]

GFS has MJO back over the EPAC end of month. Seems to me it'll be stuck over the IO or EPAC all year at this rate.

Very common in El Nino seasons

[Yellow Evan]

Past few GFS runs showing Dolores in the long-range.

[Yellow Evan]

CFS shows convergence and upward motion in the E/CPAC in about week 2. Season should turn it up then and we should start seeing more westerly storm tracks.

[gatorcane]

Seems really quiet in the EPAC suddenly with nothing really interesting showing up in the models for the next 10 days.

Is that surprising anybody given how quick of a start the EPAC go off to, El Nino etc?

[Yellow Evan]

Seems really quiet in the EPAC suddenly with nothing really interesting showing up in the models for the next 10 days.

Is that surprising anybody given how quick of a start the EPAC go off to, El Nino etc?

EPAC is entering a rare lull that it goes through at some point each season.

Still, this lull could be brief. A Kelvin Wave is expected to return to the basin late next week, and the models are hinting at stuff around that time.

Enjoy the lull while it lasts. Because honestly, I'm a bit burnt out.

[Kingarabian]

Seems really quiet in the EPAC suddenly with nothing really interesting showing up in the models for the next 10 days.

Is that surprising anybody given how quick of a start the EPAC go off to, El Nino etc?

EPAC is entering a rare lull that it goes through at some point each season.

Still, this lull could be brief. A Kelvin Wave is expected to return to the basin late next week, and the models are hinting at stuff around that time.

Enjoy the lull while it lasts. Because honestly, I'm a bit burnt out.

Same here. It only seems quiet because we had two storms nearly become Cat. 5's so early on in the season.

[Yellow Evan]

EPAC is entering a rare lull that it goes through at some point each season.

Still, this lull could be brief. A Kelvin Wave is expected to return to the basin late next week, and the models are hinting at stuff around that time.

Enjoy the lull while it lasts. Because honestly, I'm a bit burnt out.

Same here. It only seems quiet because we had two storms nearly become Cat. 5's so early on in the season.

These next several days will serve its course to raise my spiritual energy. Need it more so now than bakc in my day during the 200's, when these threads got were lucky to get 10 pages a season, and the systems to track and forecast were low-key. Now the forecasts have become more complex,

Next system looks like late June/early Julyish per the GFS ensembles. One near 130W and a couple closer to MX.

[Andrew92]

EPAC is entering a rare lull that it goes through at some point each season.

Still, this lull could be brief. A Kelvin Wave is expected to return to the basin late next week, and the models are hinting at stuff around that time.

Enjoy the lull while it lasts. Because honestly, I'm a bit burnt out.

Same here. It only seems quiet because we had two storms nearly become Cat. 5's so early on in the season.

These next several days will serve its course to raise my spiritual energy. Need it more so now than bakc in my day during the 200's, when these threads got were lucky to get 10 pages a season, and the systems to track and forecast were low-key. Now the forecasts have become more complex,

Next system looks like late June/early Julyish per the GFS ensembles. One near 130W and a couple closer to MX.

I'm heading to the LA area for the Fourth of July. On one hand, I'm absolutely thrilled about some storms perhaps staying well out to sea, perhaps giving some decent waves for body-surfing, or even if it's too dangerous for that, at least watching the ocean. Even without a storm, for those who have never been to Southern California, the waves can be quite amazing even if there's nothing out there.

On another hand though, I am planning to do some hiking in the mountains in that area (odd, but if you like that sport some of the most underrated hiking in the country IMO is just outside of there), so I really hope nothing ventures north like Blanca and makes a rough go of that. However, it would be welcome now in Arizona, as long as it doesn't pull what Norbert did. It got to 114 today here, tying a record!

-Andrew92

[Yellow Evan]

I'm heading to the LA area for the Fourth of July. On one hand, I'm absolutely thrilled about some storms perhaps staying well out to sea, perhaps giving some decent waves for body-surfing, or even if it's too dangerous for that, at least watching the ocean. Even without a storm, for those who have never been to Southern California, the waves can be quite amazing even if there's nothing out there.

On another hand though, I am planning to do some hiking in the mountains in that area (odd, but if you like that sport some of the most underrated hiking in the country IMO is just outside of there), so I really hope nothing ventures north like Blanca and makes a rough go of that. However, it would be welcome now in Arizona, as long as it doesn't pull what Norbert did. It got to 114 today here, tying a record!

-Andrew92

GFS seems pretty convinced that a high will form south of the Golden State (the state, not the basketball team), allowing the storms to form along the SW side of the basin, which depending on latitude, could result in more odd storms or long trackers.

Southern California itself is obviously a beautiful place as long as if you don't get stuck in LA area traffic. Water offshore is usually cold (or was when I was last there, in 2013, 2011, and 2009), maybe warmer due to the El Nino. Otherwise, you can get huge waves thanks to both SHEM swells and EPAC TC's. As for hiking, don't wanna get too far off topic, but never hiked there much. I'm heading to Palm Springs this weekend, where I'm excited to experience a possible all time record heat for me (in Vegas, I lived through 117F heat on July 17, 2005 and June 29, 2013, but never anything hotter).