Central Atlantic Wave,Midway Between Africa and L Antilles

calculatedrisk · #41 Postby **calculatedrisk** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:13 pm

Check out the Meteosat 8 view too (update every 6 hours):

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg

jhamps10 · #42 Postby **jhamps10** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:13 pm

I think it will be a little bit north, maybe an half-way between Chris and Ernesto went. But through the islands, and into the caribbean I think. Still too far out though.

Actually this looked better than ernesto did when he was just an invest east of the islands. :eek:

hawkeh · #43 Postby **hawkeh** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:13 pm

Well hello Florence :cheesy:

johngaltfla · #44 Postby **johngaltfla** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:14 pm

I'll bet that's an invest by morning. Very impressive burst. And the wave behind it isn't too shabby either...

#45 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:14 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:hey luis, do you think this will be in an invest this weekend. This is about the healthiest wave I've seen as far as convection is concerned. I mean it's really blown up in the last couple of hours. I think it may catch us all off guard, and we could have a depresson by the end of the weekend. I'm wondering if this develops sooner if it will head more northwest?? Check out the below image, very impressive!!! This will be mentioned in the next TWO.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn.jpg

Well,if convection persists and it manages to start organizing forming a LLC then a invest may be up fairly soon.

DESTRUCTION5 · #46 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:15 pm

cycloneye wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:hey luis, do you think this will be in an invest this weekend. This is about the healthiest wave I've seen as far as convection is concerned. I mean it's really blown up in the last couple of hours. I think it may catch us all off guard, and we could have a depresson by the end of the weekend. I'm wondering if this develops sooner if it will head more northwest?? Check out the below image, very impressive!!! This will be mentioned in the next TWO.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn.jpg

Well,if convection persists and it manages to start organizing forming a LLC then a invest may be up fairly soon.

This one may go right to TD 6

ConvergenceZone · #47 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:17 pm

what impressed me about this wave is how organized it started looking so quickly. I had to look at the date and time to make sure I wasn't looking at some other wave somebody posted a long time ago. Kudos to those who have been following this. I was so wrapped up in Ernest, I didn't even notice this intense blowup, and you are right about the wave behind it....I guess September will be living up to its name.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn.jpg

ConvergenceZone · #48 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:18 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:hey luis, do you think this will be in an invest this weekend. This is about the healthiest wave I've seen as far as convection is concerned. I mean it's really blown up in the last couple of hours. I think it may catch us all off guard, and we could have a depresson by the end of the weekend. I'm wondering if this develops sooner if it will head more northwest?? Check out the below image, very impressive!!! This will be mentioned in the next TWO.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn.jpg

Well,if convection persists and it manages to start organizing forming a LLC then a invest may be up fairly soon.

This one may go right to TD 6

Well we've seen that happen before. We will be busy the next couple of weeks, that's for sure!

sma10 · #49 Postby **sma10** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:20 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:wow, takes it as far North as PR huh? I figured it would be another south rider, but I guess something may pull it more towards that direction the closer it gets to the islands....I have a feeling this thread will be really busy come tomorrow and Sunday.

The system is already around 10N, but it's way out at 40W. If it spins up quickly it's very unlikely to go south of west all the way to S.America. The steering current in the Atlantic right now looks to be taking on a classic late August look that would track this system westward / westnorthwestward for a long period of time. If it develops, of course

Website · #50 Postby **Brent** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:23 pm

WOW. Impressive.

Florence?

ConvergenceZone · #51 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:23 pm

sma10 wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:wow, takes it as far North as PR huh? I figured it would be another south rider, but I guess something may pull it more towards that direction the closer it gets to the islands....I have a feeling this thread will be really busy come tomorrow and Sunday.

The system is already around 10N, but it's way out at 40W. If it spins up quickly it's very unlikely to go south of west all the way to S.America. The steering current in the Atlantic right now looks to be taking on a classic late August look that would track this system westward / westnorthwestward for a long period of time. If it develops, of course

well, I love long trackers, they are my favorite...

The ones that form close to shore are often more intense, but I think long trackers are more fun to track overall.

ConvergenceZone · #52 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:26 pm

Brent wrote:WOW. Impressive.

Florence?

just did an update with the latest satellite image, even looks better now than it did 30 minutes ago :wink:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn.jpg

Extremeweatherguy · #53 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:30 pm

this one looks impressive!

The question now will be...how long does it take to develop? If it can't get going before 50W, then it may make it into the Caribbean, and if it does get going before 50W, then it will likely be a fish or east coast storm.

#54 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:33 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:
Brent wrote:WOW. Impressive.

Florence?

just did an update with the latest satellite image, even looks better now than it did 30 minutes ago

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn.jpg

Looks like a long tracker...slow and steady intensification. At least out there the energy potential for hyper-intensification is not there.

Extremeweatherguy · #55 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:36 pm

Here is a look at the steering flow over the next 2 days:

Initial - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _000.shtml
Ridge to the north should keep it on a westward path for tonight.

24 hrs. - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _024.shtml
Wave should continue west.

48 hrs. - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _048.shtml
Wave signiture looks to be right east of the leeward islands and the ridge should continue to push this west.

Based on this I think a rapid motion W or WNW should be the case over the next 48 hrs. Beyond 48 hrs. it should slow down with a less certain path. I will be watching this one for sure..

ConvergenceZone · #56 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:37 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:this one looks impressive!

The question now will be...how long does it take to develop? If it can't get going before 50W, then it may make it into the Caribbean, and if it does get going before 50W, then it will likely be a fish or east coast storm.

Fish storms are fun as long as they develop well(unlike boring Debbie).

From birth to buzzsaw yep, that's what I want to see.... :wink:

ConvergenceZone · #57 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:39 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:Here is a look at the steering flow over the next 2 days:

Initial - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _000.shtml
Ridge to the north should keep it on a westward path for tonight.

24 hrs. - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _024.shtml
Wave should continue west.

48 hrs. - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _048.shtml
Wave signiture looks to be right east of the leeward islands and the ridge should continue to push this west.

Based on this I think a rapid motion W or WNW should be the case over the next 48 hrs. Beyond 48 hrs. it should slow down with a less certain path. I will be watching this one for sure..

Thanx Extreme for posting these...What name is after Florence by the way?

#58 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:39 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:this one looks impressive!

The question now will be...how long does it take to develop? If it can't get going before 50W, then it may make it into the Caribbean, and if it does get going before 50W, then it will likely be a fish or east coast storm.

Fish storms are fun as long as they develop well(unlike boring Debbie).

From birth to buzzsaw yep, that's what I want to see....

Debby may have played a role in clearing a lot of the Saharan dust...

cinlfla · #59 Postby **cinlfla** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:40 pm

THis one is lookin good :bday:

ConvergenceZone · #60 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:44 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:this one looks impressive!

The question now will be...how long does it take to develop? If it can't get going before 50W, then it may make it into the Caribbean, and if it does get going before 50W, then it will likely be a fish or east coast storm.

Fish storms are fun as long as they develop well(unlike boring Debbie).

From birth to buzzsaw yep, that's what I want to see....

Debby may have played a role in clearing a lot of the Saharan dust...

Yea, that's a good point. The SAL is extremely dimished compared to what it was earlier. Perhaps that's why this wave has got it going so quickly. This is the first wave where convection has blown up THIS quick.
I don't want to say too much though, as we'll have to see if it will sustain itself.

Central Atlantic Wave,Midway Between Africa and L Antilles

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