Ernesto,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

cinlfla · #41 Postby **cinlfla** » Sun Aug 27, 2006 9:02 pm

It looks as though a couple ofthese have moved more east and the nogaps has back off a little

Opal storm · #42 Postby **Opal storm** » Sun Aug 27, 2006 9:02 pm

I wonder if we will see another relocation of the center further north?

gtalum · #43 Postby **gtalum** » Sun Aug 27, 2006 9:02 pm

From that graphic, it sure looks like the NHC path is a western outlier now.

Aquawind · #44 Postby **Aquawind** » Sun Aug 27, 2006 9:03 pm

I see zippo south-west of the Tip of Haiti.. Looks like it might be a relocation north..

http://tinyurl.com/og52s

#45 Postby **Blown Away** » Sun Aug 27, 2006 9:03 pm

Can a pro clear this up, to me the convection appears to have fired a little just to the N of the peninsula. I'm reading posts that it is dying. What's the current status compared to 2 hours ago??

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/wv-l.jpg

Aquawind · #46 Postby **Aquawind** » Sun Aug 27, 2006 9:05 pm

The tops are currently uniformly warming..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

Thatsmrhurricane · #47 Postby **Thatsmrhurricane** » Sun Aug 27, 2006 9:06 pm

. . . But growing larger.

Sanibel · #48 Postby **Sanibel** » Sun Aug 27, 2006 9:07 pm

Bingo. The next stair-step was north.

#49 Postby **Cookiely** » Sun Aug 27, 2006 9:08 pm

Its certainly no where near death as someone posted. A little warm IV infustion and boom.

bucman1 · #50 Postby **bucman1** » Sun Aug 27, 2006 9:08 pm

What doesthat mean for thr track and the intensity??

Opal storm · #51 Postby **Opal storm** » Sun Aug 27, 2006 9:10 pm

Sanibel wrote:Bingo. The next stair-step was north.

Yep,a few hours ago it appeared to be moving west/wnw for a while and now a north jump.I guess it averages out to be going in a NW direction.

#52 Postby **Blown Away** » Sun Aug 27, 2006 9:11 pm

It appears to have picked up a little speed!

Sanibel · #53 Postby **Sanibel** » Sun Aug 27, 2006 9:12 pm

Now we'll see what Ernesto has left. Watch for a nocturnal refire over the Passage.

marcane_1973 · #54 Postby **marcane_1973** » Sun Aug 27, 2006 9:14 pm

I say rnesto is on his death bed. If i am wrong then i will eat the crow and finish off with a chocolate milkshake. 8-)

bucman1 · #55 Postby **bucman1** » Sun Aug 27, 2006 9:14 pm

If there is relocation of the center does that mean less of Cuba it will go over?

Aquawind · #56 Postby **Aquawind** » Sun Aug 27, 2006 9:15 pm

bucman1 wrote:If there is relocation of the center does that mean less of Cuba it will go over?

Yes.

Thatsmrhurricane · #57 Postby **Thatsmrhurricane** » Sun Aug 27, 2006 9:17 pm

My best extrapolation:

11PM 19N 75W
8/28/06
5AM 20N 76W
11AM 21N 76.5W
5PM 24N 78W 70mph

#58 Postby **Tertius** » Sun Aug 27, 2006 9:17 pm

bucman1 wrote:If there is relocation of the center does that mean less of Cuba it will go over?

You'd have to think so. Even if Ernesto resumes the exact compass heading it was supposed to take but from the new (apparent) position it will not be over Cuba nearly as long.

Personally I'm waiting til the new recon data starts coming in, I'd like a better fix on it's center.

#59 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Sun Aug 27, 2006 9:19 pm

It is still tilted. You can just make out the LLC on the western edge of the convection to the west of that Haiti Peninsula. It looks as if it is still on the NHC track.

THat is why the convection is stretched out to the west. If I had a nickel for everytime someone on here posted that the UL spin they see on IR has to be the LLC I would be a rich man!

Aquawind · #60 Postby **Aquawind** » Sun Aug 27, 2006 9:21 pm

Latest IR frame does have deeper convection refiring now..

Ernesto,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

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