TS Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread 12

[LSU2001]

no disrespect sean but could you provide a graphic of the shear and dry air you are referring to. The pros are all saying the environment is getting better not worse.
Tim

[Trugunzn]

interesting next copule hours with those to blobs!

[dwg71]

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

Looks like three seperate storms!

[Stratosphere747]

Try to ease up on the posting of images, and don't reply with the image attached....

As far as the waters..That entire area is hot....South/North, does not really matter.

[Extremeweatherguy]

the actual circulation center is in the western blob south of Haiti and seems to be moving WNW in line with the NHC forecast.

[Vortex]

Agree, the center is within the middle of the western most covective blowup. However, Hi-res imagery indicates a contiued general NW movement slightly to the right of the 5pm NHC projected path. The center will come very close to sw Haiti late tonight. Right now the GFDL and GFS have the best handle on Ernesto.

[miamicanes177]

TWC doing an AWFUL job right now...They did not even mention that it is forecast to be a cat 3....they just said that a long track over cuba would tend to weaken it...but that it might become a hurricane.

[gopherfan21]

[quote='Derek Ortt']GFDN is IDENTIAL to the GFDL, just with NOGAPS initial and boundary conditions instead of GFS conditions. I perfer this version of the GFDL than the GFS based one as GFS is having major problems[/quote]

Hmmm....

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/pd ... n_2005.pdf

Check out Table 4 on that^. Looks like the GFDN was the second to worst performing model last year (worst if you don't count a purely climatological model). BTW Table 4 is on Page 21.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

the actual circulation center is in the western blob south of Haiti and seems to be moving WNW in line with the NHC forecast.

After running the loop with the forecast points, the only way it's on track is if the center is in the extreme SW section of that blob which it may or may not be.

[Emmett_Brown]

Here is the shear map if anyone is interested. About 20 kts of shear over him now, but an upper level high beginning to build over him. He should start getting better organized tonight as long has he doesnt run into Hispaniola.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF

[dwg71]

I just aint (used for emphasis) seeing it moving anywhere near WNW. Its NW or just North of that. Its heading of Haiti and that is well east of NHC track..

[Dallasis2hot]

the actual circulation center is in the western blob south of Haiti and seems to be moving WNW in line with the NHC forecast.

Agreed, both points. I'm liking the IR-2 loop as the best indicator for movement right now.

[seaswing]

TWC doing an AWFUL job right now...They did not even mention that it is forecast to be a cat 3....they just said that a long track over cuba would tend to weaken it...but that it might become a hurricane.

If you notice, TWC channel only gives 15-30 seconds to Tropical weather, purely politically correct, not informational.....

[miamicanes177]

00Z intensity guidance and track
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... nsity1.png
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

[LSU2001]

I thought it was very difficult if not impossible to tell the exact center using IR imagery. If this is true ( and i could be very wrong) the bickering about if the storm is on or off track is a waste of time and effort. I say that we should wait and see what NHC does at 11:00pm with the track and center.
Just my 2 cents.
Tim

[DESTRUCTION5]

00Z intensity guidance and track
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... nsity1.png
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

Still the 18z

[Normandy]

I just aint (used for emphasis) seeing it moving anywhere near WNW. Its NW or just North of that. Its heading of Haiti and that is well east of NHC track..

Get the IR-Channel2 and run a loop of it.

Do you see those low level clouds streaming SW out ahead of the blob? That would indicate the LLC is somewhere around the middle of that blob or a HAIR further southeast....but in the middle of the convection is a good bet.

Overlay the forecast points, and you will see the center of the convection is RIGHT online with the forecast points. Its not going to make landfall and die over Haiti.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looking close up on the last visibles shows that the center is clearly moving about 290-300 degrees. Or west-northwestward. Also over the last few frames you can see that a MLC is stacking on top of the LLC...Which is a sign that this is strengthing right now. Would not suprize me if recon some time tomarrow found a eye forming.

[El Nino]

I just looked at CNN en espanol, and they showed Ernesto still when it was south of PR Time to wake over there I think ...

[Sanibel]

There's obviously a serious weather border on the NW side of that diagonal boundary ahead of Ernesto. The ULL is retreating on the west side of it and the tropical flow is enveloping Ernesto on its east side. I'd wait to see what Ernesto does when it transits into the obviously drier airmass on the west side of that divide (if anything).