Would a Fla west coast landfall be impossible..?

[bayoubebe]

No.. I'm not trying to wishcast this storm my way people.. Just curious.. I'm actually tempted to also give a forecast, but I'm afraid I'll get slammed..

I'm pretty sure I have read on other threads that the opinion of most folks here is the same, "it could hit anywhere on the gulf coast."

Last I checked, Florida would be included.

EVERYONE along the gulf coast needs to keep tabs on this storm.

[Josephine96]

Since some of the models appear to now say panhandle.. Maybe they're onto something.. Weakening ridge, cold front approach,

We shall see.. Interesting next few days 4 sure..

[hurricanesfans27]

Im now seeing panhandle models too. Not a good thing for my area. We still havent recovered from Ivan yet.

[Josephine96]

We need the rain but not the really strong winds that would come with it here.. Still well below normal rainfall in most areas..

[Noah]

Lots of factors can take place. If ernie slows down, that could change things for a florida hit. I am no expert, but storms coming form this area I watch very close. There are no troughs now, but depending on the speed of ernie, there might be and can turn him more east before the panhandle.

I am responding to the question of the poster. I know there are tons of other possibilites as well as to other areas ernie can go.

[BOPPA]

Agree that a lot of factors will change the track of Ernesto - don't like the
looks of the latest models though, taking a little more easterly track.

Shades of Charley keep running through my mind !!!!

[Josephine96]

Charley was A BAD MAN I'm just trying to play wait and see like everyone else is.. Too bad I can't take my comp. to work and keep checking back

[AtlanticWind]

If the storm slows down or stalls in the gulf a west coast of florida hit would pe possible from maybe Ft myers north . Not a Prediction but a possibility.

[bucman1]

What is the forward speed forecasted to do and is their anything that may slow or speed it up???

[BOPPA]

Don't know about the forward speed - but local met just stated that Ernesto
"might" slow down from previous forescast. From what I am understanding
on the board, this is something that SW Fl. doesn't want to happen ?!?!?

The waiting game continues.

[bucman1]

Did he give the reason for the slow down?

[bucman1]

Did he give the reason for the slow down?

[BOPPA]

Nothing specific - other than "NHC now indicates" !!

[Recurve]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Just want to point out that Charley was whipped eastward by a massive COLD FRONT that hung all the way down into the GOM. It was a huge gradient with strong winds that dominated the region.

The current forecast discussions are about a trough weakening the ridge, allowing northward motion. I don't think anyone forsees any chance of a giant winter-strength front causing Ernesto to hang a right turn at the tip of Cuba and hit the Keys or the peninsula south of, say, Tampa. But because of the geometry of the Gulf coast, a northward turn even with no east component does threaten most of the panhandle. That's just what the forecasts and obs seem to be saying now. Remember to never say never. And never focus on the dotted line.
"See the cone."

[JonathanBelles]

there is now a curve in the track so im gonna look for trends

[hurricanesfans27]

there is now a curve in the track so im gonna look for trends

just saw the cone on noaa. possible mobile bay visit on thursday. which totally sucks for me.

[Bane]

florida definitely looks like a possibility with the eastward shift in the models.

[gatorcane]

yep new GFS run takes Ernesto just off the coast of Tampa Bay and moving it NNW.

[Acral]

The models are still all over the place. A clearer picture will present itself Sunday or Monday, and hopefully ol' Ernie will find Bert away from the more populous regions.

I still feel that we are looking at a FL panhandle strike.

[gatorcane]

I'm still thinking NCGC...but we'll see. Even though the NCGC area does include the Western Panhandle, i'm thinking more Pensacola to New Orleans...so...really, MISS/AL coasts...but we'll see, it's simply such a small area of the GC.

At this point however, we could be looking at storm that could parralel the SW and W Florida coasts which could wreak havoc in cities like Key West, Marco Island, Naples, Fort Myers, Port Charllote, Sarasota, St. Pete, Tampa, and then make landfall somewhere in the big bend area. The problem with this is that (like Charley), if this kind of situation panned out, Ernesto could track eastward into any part of the West Coast of Florida with little or no warning so...this is definately one that we all need to watch on the West Coast of Florida. However, at this point, i'm still thinking that this will be a real threat to the NCGC and not West Florida (directly). Not to mention, Texas isn't out of the woods yet, and neither is Mexico...but we'll see. If the models continue to trend to the east, then we'll be at the point to start getting nervous.

k e v i n . c h o
naples, fl

Yeah I thought about that....what a track that would be if it just parallels the FL west coast. Chances are pretty small that could happen in that "perfect" scenario.........

I hope that ridge to the north starts to really give it a push more west.