92L invest MidAtlantic,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #1

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This is a nice classic banding and convection shape. Nice looking system if it can develop a burst of convection near the core it could go to tropical storm.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[Weatherfreak000]

What happened to throwing out climatology?

Look like's weather is gonna have to come back and teach a few of you that lesson, all over again.

[HURAKAN]

Didn't you get the message, that word was retired last year along with Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Stan, and Wilma!!!

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I agree in this new world of Weather (maybe due to GW), climatology seem to have little meaning.

[cheezyWXguy]

92L reminds me a lot of hurricane Danny in 2003...it was a 75mph hurricane that formed around the same area as this one did and it had fairly high pressure, due to it being close to the Bermuda High...the lowest pressure it had was 1000mb

link to archive
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at200304.asp

[clfenwi]

Special feature in the TWD...

A 1021 MB AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 34N49W OR ABOUT
900 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
FEATURE...COVERING FROM 32N-36N BETWEEN 47W-52W. SOME ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 10 MPH.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Good. Come on system number 2!!!

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

YOU DON'T SEE THIS EVERY JUNE!!!

[cycloneye]

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 92L

INITIAL TIME 12Z JUN 24

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 33.8 49.3 320./ 7.0
6 34.0 50.5 281./10.0
12 34.1 51.8 274./11.4
18 34.2 53.1 271./10.6
24 34.2 54.5 270./11.1
30 34.1 55.8 266./10.8
36 33.7 57.0 252./10.8

STORM DISSIPATED AT 36 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.



GFDL at 12z.

[cycloneye]

24/1745 UTC 34.0N 49.8W ST1.0/1.0 92L -- Atlantic Ocean


Aparently if they upgrade this system it will be Subtropical as the ST has been put there.

[cycloneye]

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922006) ON 20060624 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060624 1800 060625 0600 060625 1800 060626 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 34.1N 50.0W 34.4N 51.6W 34.6N 53.3W 34.3N 54.9W
BAMM 34.1N 50.0W 34.5N 51.8W 35.0N 53.6W 35.2N 55.3W
A98E 34.1N 50.0W 34.9N 52.3W 34.6N 54.2W 32.7N 55.4W
LBAR 34.1N 50.0W 34.7N 51.7W 35.6N 53.5W 36.2N 55.2W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 37KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 37KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060626 1800 060627 1800 060628 1800 060629 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 33.7N 56.9W 32.1N 61.6W 31.2N 66.2W 31.2N 68.5W
BAMM 35.2N 57.2W 34.8N 62.0W 35.6N 67.3W 37.1N 70.1W
A98E 30.5N 56.4W 26.3N 59.0W 25.6N 59.6W 27.5N 58.3W
LBAR 36.5N 56.9W 35.7N 60.4W 33.6N 64.0W 32.7N 65.6W
SHIP 35KTS 30KTS 28KTS 30KTS
DSHP 35KTS 30KTS 28KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 34.1N LONCUR = 50.0W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 33.7N LONM12 = 48.4W DIRM12 = 310DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 32.4N LONM24 = 47.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 35NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1019MB OUTPRS = 1025MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



18:00z Run of BAM models.

[Weatherfreak000]

Woah now, are we looking at a possible update come to 10PM Advisory?

[cycloneye]

18:00z Models Graphic.

[cheezyWXguy]

so if this thing holds together it colud possibly be an east coast landfall?

[AnnularCane]

Awww, it looks so sweet.

Not that I ever, you know, get attached to these things or anything.

[TheEuropean]

Here is an update:



Moving slowly more to the west, now at 34.1N 50.0W

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It needs to develop some convection.

[Dr. Jonah Rainwater]

so if this thing holds together it colud possibly be an east coast landfall?

No landfall with this one. The trough currently set up across the East Coast will eventually boot this system out of the picture.

[TheEuropean]

It needs to develop some convection.

Hi Matt, this is still possible in a cold system. And I think if some convection near the center will develop it may be ugraded sooner than most people think...