Brief summaries of JB's thoughts

[Steve]

Hey Extreme, just a quick question. I saw the Accuweather tropical video when they released their forecast, but did JB do a landfall intensity forecast with corresopnding numbers? And if so, can you hint (without giving away trade secrets) what he came up with for the Louisiana zone and for the MS-AL-NWFL zone?

Thanks.

Steve

[Extremeweatherguy]

Hey Extreme, just a quick question. I saw the Accuweather tropical video when they released their forecast, but did JB do a landfall intensity forecast with corresopnding numbers? And if so, can you hint (without giving away trade secrets) what he came up with for the Louisiana zone and for the MS-AL-NWFL zone?

Thanks.

Steve

He has not done the scale numbers yet...they will be released sometime this month. He did say, however, that the two areas he is most worried about are the western Gulf in the early season and the NE during the late season. He also mentioned SW Florida as a potential threat.

[HouTXmetro]

I'm confused... Which system does JB think will effect the West Gulf? The East Pac crossover Low or the Carribean Invest?

Can somebody answer?

[Extremeweatherguy]

I'm confused... Which system does JB think will effect the West Gulf? The East Pac crossover Low or the Carribean Invest?

Can somebody answer?

The carrib. invest.

[HouTXmetro]

I'm confused... Which system does JB think will effect the West Gulf? The East Pac crossover Low or the Carribean Invest?

Can somebody answer?

The carrib. invest.

Thanks

[Extremeweatherguy]

JB just came out with his numbered zone hurricane forecast, but it is a little tricky to understand. Overall though, here are a few main points:

-The main areas of concern are the western Gulf and the mid Atlantic/NE.

-The Central and Eastern Gulf should see a quieter year (though landfalls are not ruled out).

-His four main analogs are 1954, 1996, 1999 and 2003.

[OuterBanker]

Divided into twelve zones. Impact based on a land falling storm affects. i.e. a td is a 1, a cat 1 is 4.0 to 7.9 cat 3 is 16.0 to 31.9, cat 5 is above 64. The lowest risk is zone 6 which is Daytona to GA/SC border with a 1.2. Interestingly the second highest risk is from VA/NC border to Sandy Hook with a 9.5. But by far and away the highest risk is zone 7 with a whopping 20.1. I can't bring myself to say where zone 7 is, but I am hoping that he is dead wrong. I don't think I have revealed too much avoiding copyright rules. If anything is should raise awareness enough for non pro members to comtemplate joining (that's the argument I'll use).

[x-y-no]

Hmmm ... "OuterBanker" ... hopes JB is wrong on zone 7 ...

I think I can guess!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here are the zones:

1: Texas coast
2: Louisiana coast
3: Mississippi, Alabama, Florida to Cape San Blas
4: Florida, Cape San Blas to Key West
5: Florida, Key West to Daytona beach
6: Daytona Beach to SC/GA Border.
7: The Carolina Coast
8: VA/NC Border to Sandy Hook
9: Sandy Hook to Eastport
10: Canada's Atlantic coast

[skywarn]

What are the numbers for Zone's 2 & 3 ?

[Extremeweatherguy]

2 = 4.5
3 = 5.1

[Stratusxpeye]

Zones 4 5 Numbers?

[jasons2k]

OK, if everyone starts asking for numbers then we're asking for trouble from the copyright police IMO.

Edited: Aquawind(me) removed his text..the dummy..lol

[Extremeweatherguy]

Zones 4 5 Numbers?

they are low numbers...both below 5.

[Aquawind]

Sorry jschlitz.. I hit the wrong button..

LOL.. yep.. somebody might be able to actually do a forecast verification..

That's mine..

[Stratusxpeye]

Zones 4 5 Numbers?

they are low numbers...both below 5.

Works for me.

Doesnt infringe on any copyright. If someone has access to the videos on his site than they gain that information for thier personal use. If thier friends ask them a question about it they have 100% ability to anwser it. The only infrigment would come if someone ripped the video and posted it on thier site or somehow allowed multiple ppl to view the video such as an internet broadcast. It is the same thing as a movie critic.

They watch the movies and they can then review the movie and tell us all the info in the movie if we want it. They paid for that information, they can do what they want with it. They paid for thier eyes to see those images as same with JB'S Videos. Or if you buy a book. Can that book ONLY be read by you? No. Its infromation. Or even a DVD. If you buy a DVD are you the ONLY one who can watch it? No. You can have parents friends relatives, whoever over to watch it with you.

[jasons2k]

Zones 4 5 Numbers?

they are low numbers...both below 5.

Works for me.

Doesnt infringe on any copyright. If someone has access to the videos on his site than they gain that information for thier personal use. If thier friends ask them a question about it they have 100% ability to anwser it. The only infrigment would come if someone ripped the video and posted it on thier site or somehow allowed multiple ppl to view the video such as an internet broadcast. It is the same thing as a movie critic.

They watch the movies and they can then review the movie and tell us all the info in the movie if we want it. They paid for that information, they can do what they want with it. They paid for thier eyes to see those images as same with JB'S Videos. Or if you buy a book. Can that book ONLY be read by you? No. Its infromation. Or even a DVD. If you buy a DVD are you the ONLY one who can watch it? No. You can have parents friends relatives, whoever over to watch it with you.

Posting all the zones and corresponding numbers doesn't equate to what you're saying.

Following what you're saying - I can take my camcorder to the movie theater, record the movie, and then post it on the internet for my "friends" to watch. Try that one and see what happens.

[Stratusxpeye]

Posting all the zones and corresponding numbers doesn't equate to what you're saying.

Following what you're saying - I can take my camcorder to the movie theater, record the movie, and then post it on the internet for my "friends" to watch. Try that one and see what happens.

No that is exactly what I'm saying is the only way you can infridge. I said the only way you could would be to:

"The only infrigment would come if someone ripped the video and posted it on thier site or somehow allowed multiple ppl to view the video such as an internet broadcast."

Thats what would equal what your saying about the movie.

[jasons2k]

Yeah, and how is copying the zones and numbers, "number for number" so to speak, not the same thing?? Just because someone types in the letters versus hitting copy/paste doesn't change it. It's still the same data. After all, even a ripped MPEG file is still nothing but 1's and 0's.

Look, I don't want to kick over an anthill with this. I just don't want to see members being asked to stop posting summaries because they "crossed the line" and I would hate to see anyone's membership get suspended on AccuWx, or worse. So far I think EWG has been playing it safe but posting the actual zone numbers - especially all of them - is pushing it IMO.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here is what JB from accuweather thinks will happen with invest 90L:

He says that everything is in line for development of this system starting Sunday (once away from the Yucatan). He says after development, we will probably see it meander with an uncertain path (and we could be dealing with this even a week from now). In the end, his two potential paths are toward Florida or toward the western Gulf (depending on where the low emerges from the Yucatan and it's speed). He says that if it moves into the western Gulf, there is a chance of stronger development than if it moved east. He also hints in his post that there may be another storm threat around June 20th.