SE Indian Ocean: TC Hubert

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Depression...Also if it keeps moving south it should do what Floyd did. Which is die.

[HurricaneHunter914]

It actually will start moving to the east after moving south if you have seen the froecast.

[P.K.]

Pressure down another 2hPa so could be upgraded to a TC soon.

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 0642UTC 5 APRIL 2006

STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0600 UTC developing tropical low located within 30 nautical miles of
Latitude sixteen decimal three degrees South [16.3S]
Longitude one hundred and sixteen decimal five degrees East [116.5E]
Recent movement : south at 9 knots.
Maximum winds : 30 knots.
Central pressure: 992hPa.
Note: The low is expected to move towards the southwest once it has developed
further.


AREA AFFECTED
Within 100 nautical miles of the centre.


FORECAST
Low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 6 to 12 hours
causing clockwise winds 30/40 knots, rough to very rough seas and
moderate swell. Winds increasing to 50 knots near the centre by 0600 UTC 6 April



At 1800 UTC 05 April: Within 55 nautical miles of 17.0 South 115.8 East
Central pressure 986 hPa.
Winds to 40 knots near centre.
At 0600 UTC 06 April: Within 80 nautical miles of 17.9 South 114.7 East
Central pressure 978 hPa.
Winds to 50 knots near centre.

Next warning issued by 1300 UTC 05 April 2006.

WEATHER PERTH

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/042021ZAPR2006//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 16.2S 116.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 116.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 17.4S 116.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 18.2S 115.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 18.9S 114.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 19.7S 113.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 20.9S 112.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 116.4E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 21S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY REVEALS CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CYCLONE WILL TRACK POLEWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN
AUSTRALIA. TC 21S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY INITIALLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT
OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND AS IT
TRAVERSES VERY FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, THE STORM
WILL WEAKEN AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT ENCOUNTERS SHARP
GRADIENTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVPACMETOCCEN 042021Z APR 06 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21
PGTW 042030). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z, 052100Z, 060300Z AND 060900Z.



05/0833 UTC 16.2S 117.2E T3.0/3.0 21S -- South Indian Ocean

TC 21S LOOKS REALLY GOOD!

[P.K.]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 1255UTC 5 APRIL 2006

STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Tropical Cyclone Hubert located within 30 nautical miles of
Latitude seventeen decimal zero degrees South [17.0S]
Longitude one hundred and sixteen decimal three degrees East [116.3E]
Recent movement : south southwest at 8 knots.
Maximum winds : 35 knots.
Central pressure: 988hPa.



AREA AFFECTED
Within 70 nautical miles of the centre, extending to 100 nautical miles in
southwest quadrant.


FORECAST
Within 70 nautical miles of the centre, extending to 100 nautical miles in
southwest quadrant:
Clockwise winds 30/45 knots, rough to very rough seas and
moderate swell. Winds increasing to 55 knots near the centre by 1200 UTC 6
April.


At 0000 UTC 06 April: Within 50 nautical miles of 17.8 South 115.6 East
Central pressure 982 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots near centre.
At 1200 UTC 06 April: Within 80 nautical miles of 18.9 South 114.9 East
Central pressure 970 hPa.
Winds to 55 knots near centre.

Next warning issued by 1900 UTC 05 April 2006.

WEATHER PERTH

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HUBERT) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 17.1S 116.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 116.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 17.9S 115.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 18.6S 114.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 19.3S 114.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 19.9S 113.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 21.1S 112.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 17.3S 116.0E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 21S (HUBERT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY REVEALS A SYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE MASS CONSOLIDATING JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CYCLONE WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. TC 21S SHOULD INTENSIFY EARLY IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, IMPROVING
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND AS IT TRAVERSES VERY FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, THE STORM WILL WEAKEN BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS
AS IT ENCOUNTERS SHARP GRADIENTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, MID-LEVEL
RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z, 060300Z, 060900Z
AND 061500Z.



LOOKING BETTER BY THE MINUTE, ESPECIALLY THAT IT WILL MOST LIKELY MISS AUSTRALIA.

[P.K.]

Just noticed that the BoM also appear to have also tracked a hybrid low from the 1st to the 6th March. http://australiasevereweather.com/cyclones/2006/tropical_cyclone_hybrid.gif

[HurricaneHunter914]

Looks really good won't be suprised if this thing soon gets an eye.

[P.K.]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 1847UTC 5 APRIL 2006

STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1800 UTC Tropical Cyclone Hubert located within 40 nautical miles of
Latitude seventeen decimal four degrees South [17.4S]
Longitude one hundred and fifteen decimal eight degrees East [115.8E]
Recent movement : south southwest at 7 knots.
Maximum winds : 35 knots.
Central pressure: 988hPa.


AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles of the centre, extending to 90 nautical miles in
southwest quadrant.


FORECAST
Within 60 nautical miles of the centre, extending to 90 nautical miles in
southwest quadrant:
Clockwise winds 30/45 knots, rough to very rough seas and
moderate swell. Winds increasing to 55 knots near the centre by 1800 UTC 6
April.


At 0600 UTC 06 April: Within 60 nautical miles of 18.4 South 114.9 East
Central pressure 982 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots near centre.
At 1800 UTC 06 April: Within 80 nautical miles of 19.2 South 114.3 East
Central pressure 970 hPa.
Winds to 55 knots near centre.

Next warning issued by 0100 UTC 06 April 2006.

WEATHER PERTH

[HURAKAN]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 0039UTC 6 APRIL 2006

STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0000 UTC Tropical Cyclone Hubert located within 40 nautical miles of
Latitude seventeen decimal six degrees South [17.6S]
Longitude one hundred and fifteen decimal nine degrees East [115.9E]
Recent movement : south southwest at 6 knots.
Maximum winds : 40 knots.
Central pressure: 986hPa.


AREA AFFECTED
Within 50 nautical miles of the centre in northern quadrants, extending to
within 130 nautical miles in southern quadrants.


FORECAST
Clockwise winds 30/40 knots, rough to very rough seas and
moderate swell. Winds increasing to 55 knots near the centre by 1800 UTC 6
April.


At 1200 UTC 06 April: Within 60 nautical miles of 18.7 South 115.4 East
Central pressure 978 hPa.
Winds to 50 knots near centre.
At 0000 UTC 07 April: Within 80 nautical miles of 19.5 South 115.1 East
Central pressure 970 hPa.
Winds to 55 knots near centre.

Next warning issued by 0700 UTC 06 April 2006.

WEATHER PERTH

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 2
Issued at 8:55 am WST on Thursday, 6 April 2006
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A CYCLONE WARNING is now current for a CATEGORY 1 CYCLONE for the coastal areas
between Roebourne and Exmouth. A CYCLONE WATCH extends to adjacent inland parts
of the Pilbara and coastal areas between Exmouth and Minilya Roadhouse.

At 8:00am WST TROPICAL CYCLONE HUBERT was estimated to be
360 kilometres north northwest of Karratha and
455 kilometres north of Onslow and
moving south southwest at 11 kilometres per hour.

Gales are not expected to develop in coastal areas today but gales could develop
during Friday as the cyclone moves further to the south southwest.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Hubert at 8:00 am WST.
Location of centre : within 70 kilometres of
Latitude 17.6 South Longitude 115.9 East.
Recent movement : South southwest at 11 kilometres per hour.
Central Pressure : 986 hPa.
Maximum wind gusts : 105 kilometres per hour near the centre.
Severity category : 1.

The next advice will be issued at midday WST.
FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present. Communities between Roebourne and Minilya Roadhouse should listen for
the next advice.Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are
available by
dialling 1300 659 210


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/wa/cyclone

WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE PILBARA COAST BUT THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE DISSIPATING AS IT GETS CLOSER TO AUSTRALIA.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HUBERT) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 18.1S 115.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 115.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 18.9S 115.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 20.0S 114.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 21.2S 114.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 22.3S 114.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 24.4S 116.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 115.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HUBERT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) IS EXPOSED NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.
THE SYSTEM HAS NOT MOVED AS FAR WESTWARD AS ANTICIPATED. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE STORM HAS NOT FILLED
AS EXPECTED. THIS HAS CAUSED A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO REMAIN,
RESULTING IN A MORE POLEWARD TRACK. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS HIGHER
THAN FORECAST AS WELL, AS EVIDENCED BY THE EXPOSED LLCC. AN OUT-
FLOW CHANNEL HAS DEVELOPED AS TC 21S MOVES CLOSER TO THE MIDLAT-
ITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE BRIEF INTENSIFI-
CATION BEFORE INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND LANDFALL COMBINE TO WEAKEN THE STORM PAST TAU 24.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 060900Z, 061500Z, 062100Z AND 070300Z.



ANOTHER ONE COMING FOR AUSTRALIA.

[P.K.]

Forecast to peak in the next 12 hours.

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 0650UTC 6 APRIL 2006

STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0600 UTC Tropical Cyclone Hubert located within 30 nautical miles of
Latitude eighteen decimal three degrees South [18.3S]
Longitude one hundred and fifteen decimal six degrees East [115.6E]
Recent movement : south southwest at 6 knots.
Maximum winds : 45 knots.
Central pressure: 982hPa.


AREA AFFECTED
Within 50 nautical miles of the centre in northern quadrants, extending to
within 130 nautical miles in southern quadrants.


FORECAST
Clockwise winds 30/40 knots with rough to very rough seas and
moderate swell. Winds increasing to clockwise 45/55 knots within 40nm of the
centre by 1800 UTC 6 April, with high seas and moderate swell.


At 1800 UTC 07 April: Within 60 nautical miles of 19.3 South 115.5 East
Central pressure 970 hPa.
Winds to 55 knots near centre.
At 0600 UTC 07 April: Within 90 nautical miles of 20.3 South 115.5 East
Central pressure 978 hPa.
Winds to 50 knots near centre.

Next warning issued by 1300 UTC 06 April 2006.

WEATHER PERTH

[Coredesat]

WTXS31 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HUBERT) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 18.5S 115.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S 115.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 19.7S 115.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 20.8S 114.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 21.9S 114.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 23.5S 115.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 26.4S 116.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 18.8S 115.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HUBERT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MULTISPECTRAL
AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE DENSE CONVECTION.
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR, THE DEVELOP-
MENT OF A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTROPICAL
JET OVER SOUTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO BRIEFLY
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS BEFORE CAUSING A DETRIMENTAL
EFFECT ON THE SYSTEM. WEAK MIDLEVEL RIDGING DUE SOUTH OF TC 21S HAS
CAUSED THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST BUT AN
ADVANCING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL ERODE THIS RIDGE AND CAUSE THE
SYSTEM TO TRACK NEARLY DUE SOUTH AFTER TAU 12. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z,
062100Z, 070300Z AND 070900Z.//

[Squeako da Magnifico]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 5
Issued at 5:45 pm WST on Thursday, 6 April 2006
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A CYCLONE WARNING is now current for a CATEGORY 2 CYCLONE for the coastal areas
between Roebourne and Exmouth. A CYCLONE WATCH extends to adjacent inland parts
of the Pilbara and coastal areas between Exmouth and Minilya Roadhouse.

At 5:00pm WST TROPICAL CYCLONE HUBERT was estimated to be
280 kilometres north northwest of Karratha and
340 kilometres north of Onslow and
moving south southwest at 12 kilometres per hour.

Gales are not expected to develop in coastal areas tonight but gales may develop
during Friday as the cyclone moves closer to the coast. Heavy rainfall is likely
in coastal parts of the west Pilbara during Friday, but is not expected to
extend very far inland.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Hubert at 5:00 pm WST.
Location of centre : within 70 kilometres of
Latitude 18.6 South Longitude 115.4 East.
Recent movement : South southwest at 12 kilometres per hour.
Central Pressure : 978 hPa.
Maximum wind gusts : 130 kilometres per hour near the centre.
Severity category : 2.

The next advice will be issued at 9pm WST.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in or near the communities of Karratha, Roebourne, Point
Samson, Wickham, Dampier, Pannawonica, Onslow, Exmouth and Mardie should begin
taking precautions.

The Hybrid Low off the QLD coast gave 115km/h gusts to coastal areas of Southern QLD. It was quite blowy here as well. Unfortunately it didn't deliver much rain it got as close to 70km away from Brisbane before moving away. That was at it's peak intensity aswell at 994hpa. There was another much stronger Hybrid system in 2004 had Wind gusts of over 130km/h about the same time. That was quite frightening. That one did crossed the Southern Coast. Caused 2 deaths and costed millions of dollars.

[P.K.]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 1254UTC 6 APRIL 2006

STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Tropical Cyclone Hubert located within 40 nautical miles of
Latitude nineteen decimal zero degrees South [19.0S]
Longitude one hundred and fifteen decimal two degrees East [115.2E]
Recent movement : south southwest at 7 knots.
Maximum winds : 50 knots.
Central pressure: 978hPa.


AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles of the centre in northern quadrants, extending to
within 120 nautical miles in southern quadrants.


FORECAST
Clockwise winds 30/45 knots with rough to very rough seas and
moderate swell. Winds within 40nm of the centre clockwise 40/50 knots,
increasing to 45/60 knots by 2100 UTC 06 April, with high to very high seas and
moderate swell.


At 0000 UTC 07 April: Within 60 nautical miles of 20.1 South 114.6 East
Central pressure 968 hPa.
Winds to 60 knots near centre.
At 1200 UTC 07 April: Within 90 nautical miles of 21.1 South 114.1 East
Central pressure 968 hPa.
Winds to 60 knots near centre.

Next warning issued by 1900 UTC 06 April 2006.

WEATHER PERTH

[MiamiensisWx]

LOOKING VERY GOOD!

[CHRISTY]

[img]ftp://ftp.jcu.edu.au/JCUMetSat/ausmovie.gif[/img]

[HURAKAN]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 1857UTC 6 APRIL 2006

STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1800 UTC Tropical Cyclone Hubert located within 30 nautical miles of
Latitude nineteen decimal seven degrees South [19.7S]
Longitude one hundred and fifteen decimal zero degrees East [115.0E]
Recent movement : south southwest at 7 knots.
Maximum winds : 50 knots.
Central pressure: 975hPa.


AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles of the centre in northern quadrants, extending to
within 100 nautical miles in southern quadrants.


FORECAST
Within 30 nautical miles of the centre extending to 50 nautical miles in
southern quadrants: 45/55 knot winds with high to very high seas and moderate
swell.
Within 60 nautical miles of the centre in northern quadrants, extending to
within 100 nautical miles in southern quadrants: Clockwise winds 30/45 knots
with rough to very rough seas and moderate swell.


At 0600 UTC 07 April: Within 50 nautical miles of 21.0 South 114.7 East
Central pressure 970 hPa.
Winds to 55 knots near centre.
At 1800 UTC 07 April: Within 70 nautical miles of 21.9 South 114.4 East
Central pressure 975 hPa.
Winds to 50 knots near centre.

Next warning issued by 0100 UTC 07 April 2006.

WEATHER PERTH

[HurricaneHunter914]

Looks better now, hopefully Australia stays safe.