SE Indian Ocean: Severe TC Floyd

[HURAKAN]

You say basins, rather than first names. Does this mean there could be another Hurricane Floyd in the eastern Pacific, say off Mexico, or a Hurricane Linda in the Atlantic?

YES! An example of that is Celia which was retired in 1970 in the Atlantic Ocean and the Eastern Pacific has been using that name since the 1980s.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 1847UTC 22 MARCH 2006

HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1800UTC Tropical Cyclone Floyd located within 30 nautical miles of
Latitude thirteen decimal two South [13.2S]
Longitude one hundred and eleven decimal two East [111.2E]
Recent movement : W at 8 knots.
Maximum winds : 60 knots.
Central pressure : 970 hPa.


AREA AFFECTED
Within 80 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Sustained winds to 60 knots near centre increasing to 80 knots by 23/1200UTC.
Within 30 nautical miles of centre winds increasing to above 64 knots with very
high seas and moderate to heavy swell developing by 23/0000UTC.
Within 50 nautical miles of centre winds above 48 knots with high seas and
moderate to heavy swell.
Within 60 nautical miles of centre winds above 34 knots with very rough seas and
moderate to heavy swell.

At 0600UTC 23 March: 13.3 south 109.6 east
Central pressure 955 hPa.
Winds to 75 knots near centre.
At 1800UTC 23 March: 13.8 south 108.1 east
Central pressure 960 hPa.
Winds to 80 knots near centre.

Next warning issued by 0100UTC 23 March 2006.

WEATHER PERTH

[MiamiensisWx]

WTXS31 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FLOYD) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 13.4S 111.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4S 111.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 13.4S 109.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 13.9S 108.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 14.6S 107.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 15.5S 106.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 16.9S 106.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 13.4S 111.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (FLOYD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 545 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
IMAGERY SUGGESTS AN EMBEDDED CENTER, AND ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
REVEALS AN INCREASE IN RADIAL OUTFLOW IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. TC
19S IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE SITUATED OVER NORTHERN AUSTRALIA. HOWEVER, BETWEEN TAUS 48 AND
72, AN APPROACHING MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A WEAKNESS IN
THE RIDGE AND ALLOW TC 19S TO TRACK POLEWARD. THE INTENSITY OF THE
SYSTEM WILL INCREASE AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE UNTIL APPROXI-
MATELY TAU 36. AFTER THIS TIME, INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
WEAKEN THE INTENSITY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS
28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z.//

NNNN

Looks like Floyd has a chance to become the next monster potentially!

[HURAKAN]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 0035UTC 23 MARCH 2006

HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0000UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Floyd located within 30 nautical miles of
Latitude thirteen decimal two South [13.2S]
Longitude one hundred and ten decimal three East [110.3E]
Recent movement : W at 8 knots.
Maximum winds : 70 knots.
Central pressure : 960 hPa.


AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles of the centre.


FORECAST
Sustained winds to 70 knots near centre increasing to 85 knots by 24/0000UTC.
Within 20 nautical miles of centre winds above 64 knots with very high to
phenomenal seas and moderate to heavy swell.
Within 40 nautical miles of centre winds above 48 knots with high seas and
moderate to heavy swell.
Within 90 nautical miles of centre winds above 34 knots with very rough seas and
moderate to heavy swell.

At 1200UTC 23 March: 13.7 south 108.6 east
Central pressure 956 hPa
Winds to 75 knots near centre.
At 0000UTC 24 March: 14.6 south 107.6 east
Central pressure 946 hPa
Winds to 85 knots near centre.

Next warning issued by 0700 UTC 23 March 2006.

WEATHER PERTH

ANOTHER SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS BORN!

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FLOYD) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 13.3S 110.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S 110.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 13.4S 108.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 14.3S 107.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 16.1S 107.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 17.8S 108.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 20.2S 109.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 13.3S 110.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (FLOYD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 570 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 19S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED
OVER NORTHERN AUSTRALIA. BETWEEN TAUS 24 AND 36, AN APPROACHING MAJOR
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AND ALLOW TC
19S TO TRACK POLEWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS
30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z AND 231500Z.



THE JTWC HAS SHIFTED THEIR INTENSITY FORECAST DRAMATICALLY. IN THE LAST FORECAST THEY TALKED ABOUT FLOYD GETTING TO 100 KNOTS, NOW THEY SAY FLOYD IS REACHING ITS PEAK.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The BOM strengthens it...The JTWC has done a poor job with strength of cyclones this year. I expect Floyd to get to 100 knots durning the next 48 hours.

[HurricaneHunter914]

I would love to see the reincarnation of Floyd. I didn't track the other monster Floyd so I guess god is letting me track this one.

[P.K.]

Upgraded.

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 0643UTC 23 MARCH 2006

HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0600UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Floyd located within 20 nautical miles of
Latitude thirteen decimal five South [13.5S]
Longitude one hundred and nine decimal six East [109.6E]
Recent movement : SW at 7 knots.
Maximum winds : 70 knots.
Central pressure : 960 hPa.


AREA AFFECTED
Within 70 nautical miles of the centre.


FORECAST
Sustained winds to 70 knots near centre, increasing to as much as 80 knots
overnight.
Within 15 nautical miles of centre winds above 64 knots with very high to
phenomenal seas and moderate to heavy swell.
Within 30 nautical miles of centre winds above 48 knots with high seas and
moderate to heavy swell.
Within 70 nautical miles of centre winds above 34 knots with very rough seas and
moderate to heavy swell.

At 1800UTC 23 March: 14.1 south 108.4 east
Central pressure 948 hPa
Winds to 80 knots near centre.
At 0600UTC 24 March: 15.1 south 107.7 east
Central pressure 956 hPa
Winds to 75 knots near centre.

Next warning issued by 1300 UTC 23 March 2006.

WEATHER PERTH

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Sab is showing a 4.5/4.5=77 knots...Cimss t numbers show a 5.0t...Looking at 85h data shows a nice eye. I say 80 to 85 knots.

[HURAKAN]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 1244UTC 23 MARCH 2006

HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1200UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Floyd located within 20 nautical miles of
Latitude fourteen decimal zero South [14.0S]
Longitude one hundred and nine decimal zero East [109.0E]
Recent movement : SW at 7 knots.
Maximum winds : 90 knots.
Central pressure : 940 hPa.


AREA AFFECTED
Within 80 nautical miles of the centre.


FORECAST
Sustained winds to 90 knots near centre, increasing to 105 knots in the next 24
hours.
Within 20 nautical miles of centre winds above 64 knots with very high to
phenomenal seas and moderate to heavy swell.
Within 35 nautical miles of centre winds above 48 knots with high seas and
moderate to heavy swell.
Within 80 nautical miles of centre winds above 34 knots with very rough seas and
moderate to heavy swell.

At 0000UTC 24 March: 15.1 south 108.1 east
Central pressure 925 hPa
Winds to 100 knots near centre.
At 1200UTC 24 March: 16.2 south 108.1 east
Central pressure 920 hPa
Winds to 105 knots near centre.

Next warning issued by 1900 UTC 23 March 2006.

WEATHER PERTH

NOW A CATEGORY 4 IN THE AUSTRALIAN SCALE!

[HURAKAN]

FLOYD SEES YOU!!!

[HURAKAN]

23/1333 UTC 14.3S 108.8E T6.0/6.0 FLOYD
23/0733 UTC 13.8S 109.4E T4.5/4.5 FLOYD


WHAT I JUMP FROM A FEW HOURS AGO. 6.0 MEANS 115 KNOTS / 135 MPH. CAT. 4 ALSO HERE!

[HURAKAN]

WE NEED AT LEAST 5 OR 6 OF THIS FLOYD TO MAKE OUR 1999 FLOYD!

[Weatherfreak000]

WE NEED AT LEAST 5 OR 6 OF THIS FLOYD TO MAKE OUR 1999 FLOYD!

Cool, spiderlike appearance to it.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I knew this storm was stronger then it looked last night. If I was a Aussie I would be watching this alot more then Wati.

[HURAKAN]

LOOKS REALLY NICE. STILL, THE JTWC IS REFERING TO THIS STORM AS A 65 KNOTS CYCLONE.

[HURAKAN]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 1816UTC 23 MARCH 2006

HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1800UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Floyd located within 20 nautical miles of
Latitude fourteen decimal five South [14.5S]
Longitude one hundred and eight decimal five East [108.5E]
Recent movement : SW at 7 knots.
Maximum winds : 100 knots.
Central pressure : 920 hPa.


AREA AFFECTED
Within 80 nautical miles of the centre.


FORECAST
Sustained winds to 105 knots near centre.
Within 20 nautical miles of centre winds above 64 knots with very high to
phenomenal seas and moderate to heavy swell.
Within 35 nautical miles of centre winds above 48 knots with high seas and
moderate to heavy swell.
Within 80 nautical miles of centre winds above 34 knots with very rough seas and
moderate to heavy swell.

At 0600UTC 24 March: 15.8 south 108.1 east
Central pressure 910 hPa
Winds to 105 knots near centre.
At 1800UTC 24 March: 16.7 south 108.3 east
Central pressure 910 hPa
Winds to 105 knots near centre.

Next warning issued by 0100 UTC 24 March 2006.

WEATHER PERTH

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wow this is almost stronger then Larry!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It would not take much more for this to become a 5 on there scale.