How strong could an Atlantic/Carrib/GOM storm get MCP-wise?

[Patrick99]

For all practical, reasonable purposes, I'd venture that Wilma, with her tiny eye, is about as good as it gets in this basin, at this time. I doubt I'll see anything similar in my lifetime...

[f5]

what kind of surge would a 810 mb Katrina with 300 mph sustained winds have if she would of made landfall in the exact same spot

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

60-75 feet

[Audrey2Katrina]

I doubt seriously any of these Atlantic storms could reach anything near sustained 300 mph winds... I mean you're talking an F5 tornado anywhere from 100-300 miles wide...ummm sort of would "erase" everything in it's path.

A2K

[f5]

i guessed 300 mph beacuse at 1,000 mb its usually a TD at 900 mb Like Mitch,Katrina and Rita the winds are 170 to 180 drop it another 100 mb thats another 150-170 mph increase.150+150=300 mph

[f5]

What Kept Katrina from getting down to 810 mb. also what would a small storm like Charley have at 810 mb?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

well charley had 150 at 940s so it would probably hit 400 mph at 810 mb

but im not expecting to see anything like that in my lifetime

[Audrey2Katrina]

well charley had 150 at 940s so it would probably hit 400 mph at 810 mb

but im not expecting to see anything like that in my lifetime

Unlikely. Katrina had 175 mph at its 902 mb measure, and Wilma's tops were around 185 when it hit 882... I seriously doubt a 72 more mb drop would double those windspeeds... the pattern doesn't even seem to suggest that.

A2K

[f5]

well charley had 150 at 940s so it would probably hit 400 mph at 810 mb

but im not expecting to see anything like that in my lifetime

400 mph sustained winds in Tampa with 1.4 to 1.6 gust ratio would equal airplane like wind gust ranging from 560-640 mph.If something like that were to occur tampa would of been wiped off the face of the earth

[Derek Ortt]

had it somehow reached its MPI, maybe 220-230 tops would have been the maximum sustained winds. Remember, there weer every low-pressures surrounding the storm, and the pressure gradient was very spread out. The surge only would have been a few feet higher, as it is not really a founction of the maximum wind speed, but the extent of the hurricane force and cat 3 winds

[ROCK]

For all practical, reasonable purposes, I'd venture that Wilma, with her tiny eye, is about as good as it gets in this basin, at this time. I doubt I'll see anything similar in my lifetime...

I agree......

[KWT]

In terms of supercanes, the only way that'd be possible on this planet would be if a asteroid hit earth and super-heated the seas for awhile, allowing for some ultra high SSTS and therefore some monster MPI's.

I certainly think that we can get much deeper storms then Wilma if the perfect condtions were evident over some extreme SSTA.

Patrick, rock, though I'd like to agree with you, considering we seem to be getting more and more systemsd getting down to 900-910mbs nowdays, i think its highly likely we'll get below 880mbs this century.

[vbhoutex]

In terms of supercanes, the only way that'd be possible on this planet would be if a asteroid hit earth and super-heated the seas for awhile, allowing for some ultra high SSTS and therefore some monster MPI's.

I certainly think that we can get much deeper storms then Wilma if the perfect condtions were evident over some extreme SSTA.

Patrick, rock, though I'd like to agree with you, considering we seem to be getting more and more systemsd getting down to 900-910mbs nowdays, i think its highly likely we'll get below 880mbs this century.

I wouldn't go that far KWT. I can see the possiblity of an 875 or so within the next decade. Mind you I am not talking several, but maybe one or two anamolies over the next decade or so. Much below that would be difficult if not near impossible to happen imo. Too many variables to affect a system for much below that and we aredn't seeing the super heated waters or super low pressures overall that would be needed, at leasst not now.

[weatherwoman132]

[benny]

MPI theory is mostly based on observation anyway. What evidence is there of a real MPI of 810 mb anywhere in the world? Wilma had the benefit of being embedded in a relatively large area of low pressure with low environmental pressures. The strongest WPac system was no where near even 850 mb with deep warm waters comparable to the Gulf or NW Carib. It seems like the real MPI is not SST, but eyewall cycles at the very high intensities. Hurricanes just don't stay at levels above 150 kt for very long as the eyewalls aren't stable at small RMWs. I don't buy hypercanes anymore than I buy that global warming is somehow magically causing all these increased hurricanes since 1995.

[JonathanBelles]

i believe that it is possible for a 810 mb hurricane...
i belive it will happen close to a home somewhere in the world...
i believe it will happen in the GOM or the extreme west pacific...
i believe it will happen sooner than later...
i believe if there is a will there is a way.

[benny]

I may believe pigs can fly but that won't mean it will happen

[MiamiensisWx]

i believe that it is possible for a 810 mb hurricane...
i belive it will happen close to a home somewhere in the world...
i believe it will happen in the GOM or the extreme west pacific...
i believe it will happen sooner than later...
i believe if there is a will there is a way.

Sounds like a hymn or song...

[milankovitch]

the MPI in the NW Caribbean is closer to 850mb, and the eddy that Katrina crossed was even more rediculous. Our MM5 at UM simulation had an MPI of about 810mb for Katrina over the eddy

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/%7Ejohnc/an ... na_mpi.jpg

Wilmas 882 was not close to the intensity that a hurricane can reach

Why is MPI higher in the Gulf than in the Caribbean? Does this have someting to do with temperatures aloft?

[f5]

Katrina was near the most intense eddy of the season ,scary stuff