SW Pacific: Tropical Cyclone Vaianu (11P)

[P.K.]

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A17 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 14/0803 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone VAIANU [965hPa] centre was located near 23.6 South
175.5 West at 140600 UTC. Position fair based on MTSAT EIR/VIS
imagery with animation and peripheral surface reports. Cyclone moving
southeast about 10 knots. Expect sustained winds of 70 knots close to
the centre. Expect winds over 63 knots within 20 miles of centre,
over 47 knots within 40 miles of centre and over 33 knots within 150
miles of centre in sectors from north through east to southwest and
within 100 miles elsewhere.

Overall organisation remains good. Convective bands continue to wrap
tightly around llcc but system still struggling to form a banding
eye. Outflow remains good to south and east but restricted elsewhere.
Shear remains minimal. SST about 28C. Further intensification
possible as shear to south remains weak but system is expected to
beyound 25S due to cooler SSTs. Dvorak analysis based on centre
embedded in MG yielding DT=4.0. PT=MET=4.5, thus T4.5/4.5/D0.5/24hrs.
Cyclone is being steered southeast by a deep northwest steering flow.
Global models generally agree on this with possible further
intensification.

FORECAST:
12hrs valid at 141800 UTC near 24.6S 174.3W mov SE at 08kt with 70 kt
close to the centre.
24hrs valid at 150600 UTC near 26.0S 172.9W mov SE at 08kt with 60 kt
close to the centre.

OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid at 151800 UTC near 27.3S 171.3W mov SE at 08kt with 50kt
close to the centre.
48hrs valid at 160600 UTC near 28.7S 169.8W mov SE at 08kt with 40kt
close to the centre.

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone VAIANU
will be issued around 141400 UTC.

[P.K.]

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A18 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 14/1417 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone VAIANU [965hPa] centre was located near 23.7 South
174.2 West at 14012600 UTC. Position fair based on MTSAT EIR/VIS
imagery with animation and peripheral surface reports. Cyclone moving
southeast about 10 knots. Expect sustained winds of 70 knots close to
the centre. Expect winds over 63 knots within 20 miles of centre,
over 47 knots within 40 miles of centre and over 33 knots within 150
miles of centre in sectors from north through east to southwest and
within 100 miles elsewhere.

Overall organisation still remains good. Outer convective bands are
weakening but inner bands continue to wrap tightly around llcc.
Outflow remains good to south and east but restricted elsewhere.
Shear remains minimal. SST about 28C. Vaianu is expected to weaken
beyound 25S due to cooler SSTs and increased shear aloft. Dvorak
analysis based on centre embedded in LG yielding DT=4.5. PT=MET=4.5,
thus T4.5/4.5/S0.5/24hrs. Cyclone is being steered southeast by a
deep northwest steering flow. Global models generally agree on this
with graduall weakening.

FORECAST:
12hrs valid at 150000 UTC near 25.0S 174.3W mov ESE at 08kt with 65
kt close to the centre.
24hrs valid at 151200 UTC near 26.4S 171.5W mov SE at 08kt with 60 kt
close to the centre.

OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid at 160000 UTC near 27.7S 169.7W mov SE at 08kt with 50kt
close to the centre.
48hrs valid at 161200 UTC near 28.9S 168.7W mov SE at 08kt with 40kt
close to the centre.

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone VAIANU
will be issued around 142000 UTC.

[P.K.]

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A19 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 14/2023 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone VAIANU [975hPa] centre was located near 24.6 South
173.6 West at 141800 UTC. Position poor based on MTSAT EIR imagery
with animation. Cyclone moving southeast about 10 knots. Cyclone
weakening. Expect sustained winds of 60 knots close to the centre
decreasing to 50 knots in the next 12 to 18 hours. Expect winds over
47 knots within 40 miles of centre, over 33 knots within 150 miles of
centre in sectors from north through east to southwest and within 100
miles elsewhere.

Vaianu is moving into increased shear and cooler SSTs. The cyclone
remains in a diffluent region close to the 250 hPa subtropical ridge
and has maintained central convection sofar. Outlow remains fair from
southwest to east but is restricted elsewhere. Dvorak analysis based
on a 0.85 log10 spiral gives DT=PT=MET=3.5, yielding
T3.5/4.0/W1.0/24hrs. Cyclone is being steered southeast by a mid
level ridge to the northeast and by a broad 250 hPa trough to the
west. Global models agree on a southeast track with gradual
weakening.

FORECAST:
12hrs valid at 150600 UTC near 25.9S 171.5W mov SE at 12kt with 55 kt
close to the centre.
24hrs valid at 151800 UTC near 27.2S 169.6W mov SE at 10kt with 45 kt
close to the centre.

OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid at 160600 UTC near 28.5S 168.8W mov SE at 10kt with 40kt
close to the centre.
48hrs valid at 161800 UTC near 29.8S 16.1W mov SE at 10kt with 40kt
close to the centre.

This is the final Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone
Vaianu unless the cyclone recurves into Nadi's warning area.

[P.K.]

ZCZC 939
WTNZ41 NZKL 150721
STORM WARNING 186
THIS AFFECTS OCEAN AREA/S: SUBTROPIC AND PACIFIC
TROPICAL CYCLONE VAIANU 980HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.2 SOUTH
172.2 WEST AT 150600 UTC. POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 25.2S 172.2W AT 150600 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. CYCLONE WEAKENING SLOWLY.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 MILES OF CENTRE AND
OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 240 MILES OF CENTRE IN SOUTHEAST
SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 150 MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 27.0S 170.0W AT 151800 UTC
AND NEAR 28.5S 168.5W AT 160600 UTC.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 183 AND 180.

NNNN

[P.K.]

ZCZC 751
WTNZ41 NZKL 151834
STORM WARNING 190
THIS AFFECTS OCEAN AREA/S: SUBTROPIC AND PACIFIC
AT 151800UTC
TROPICAL CYCLONE VAIANU 980HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.7 SOUTH
169.4 WEST AT 151800 UTC. POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 26.7S 169.4W AT 151800 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST 15 KNOTS. CYCLONE WEAKENING SLOWLY.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE AND
OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF CENTRE IN SOUTHEAST
SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 180 MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 28.0 SOUTH 167.0W AT 160600 UTC
AND NEAR 29.5S 167.5W AT 161800 UTC.
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 189.

NNNN

[P.K.]

50kts

WTNZ41 NZKL 160004
STORM WARNING 195
THIS AFFECTS OCEAN AREA/S: SUBTROPIC AND PACIFIC
TROPICAL CYCLONE VAIANU 985HPA]CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.2 SOUTH
168.5 WEST AT 160000 UTC. POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 27.2S 168.5W AT 152300 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST 10 KNOTS. CYCLONE WEAKENING SLOWLY.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE AND
OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF CENTRE IN SOUTHEAST
SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 180 MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 29.0S 167.5W AT 161200 UTC
AND NEAR 31.0S 167.0W AT 170000 UTC.


THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 193.

NNNN

[P.K.]

WTNZ41 NZKL 160623
STORM WARNING 199
THIS AFFECTS OCEAN AREA/S: SUBTROPIC AND PACIFIC
TROPICAL CYCLONE VAIANU 986HPA]CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.0 SOUTH
167.6 WEST AT 160600 UTC. POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 28.0S 167.6W AT 160600 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHSOUTHEAST 10 KNOTS. CYCLONE WEAKENING SLOWLY.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE AND
OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF CENTRE IN SECTORS FROM
NORTH THROUGH SOUTH TO WEST AND WITHIN 180 MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 30.0S 167.0W AT 161800 UTC
AND NEAR 32.0S 167.0W AT 170600 UTC.
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 196.

NNNN

[Coredesat]

JTWC says extratropical:

WTPS31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (VAIANU) WARNING NR 011

01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

---

WARNING POSITION:

160600Z --- NEAR 28.2S 167.0W

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 13 KTS

POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM

POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

EXTRATROPICAL

REPEAT POSIT: 28.2S 167.0W

---

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

161800Z --- 29.9S 165.2W

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

EXTRATROPICAL

---

REMARKS:

160900Z POSITION NEAR 28.6S 166.5W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (VAIANU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1000 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND ANIMATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATE THAT TC 11P HAS COMPLETED EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 11 FEET. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING
CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//

[Coredesat]

And I would have to agree.

[P.K.]

STORM WARNING 202

This affects ocean area/s: SUBTROPIC and PACIFIC

AT 161200UTC

Low 985hPa, formerly cyclone Vaianu, near 29S 167W,moving
southsoutheast 10kt.
1. Within 120 miles of low in southern semicircle: Clockwise 50kt.
2. Outside area 1 and within 300 miles of low in sectors north
through southeast to west, and within 180 miles elsewhere:
Clockwise 35kt.
Areas of storms and gales moving with low.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 199.