Southeast Florida: Reasons For A Major Hit Soon

[jdray]

Just because an area is "overdue" does not mean it is going to happen soon.

Mother Nature does not keep numbers.


I have a feeling Cedar Key area will see more action than SE Florida will this year,
but this is just my opinion.

[MiamiensisWx]

True... good points, jdray. However, climatology is what we can only rely on (unfortunately) for predictions, as well as only a few other things. Other than that, these things are mysteries.

[Tertius]

I don't actually have any real idea what the odds are that a major will hit SE Florida this year. I do know this however. If one does my insurance payment may begin to approach my mortgage payment. We simply cannot afford another 50% rate hike.

I haven't even collected the insurance payment from Wilma yet. My roof needs to be completely replaced as well as porches, fences, etc. I can't afford to start the work before receiving payment and will likely end up doing much of it myself in an effort to overcome the outrageous deductible. That is, if we even get the payment before the 2006 season starts.

This is getting rediculous.

[jdray]

Ive yet to take any damage other than heavy rains and some winds the past 2 years.


Allstate dropped us, but luckily my insurance is still about the same cost as 3 years ago for me.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Ive yet to take any damage other than heavy rains and some winds the past 2 years.


Allstate dropped us, but luckily my insurance is still about the same cost as 3 years ago for me.

yeah NE Florida seems to have been very lucky over the last 2 seasons.

[jdray]

Im waiting on a nice hit one day. Its coming, just dont know when.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

I really really hope your wrong - Wilma scared the wishcaster out of me. Actually Frances scared the wishcaster out of me, the rest pounded the message home.

I still remember actually *WANTING* Floyd to come here in 99. I was upset when he turned at the last minute (as had been forecast).

Wilma showed us all what a storm can do. I hope nobody forgets.

[Scorpion]

Frances,Jeanne: 2004
Katrina,Wilma:2005

All these hurricanes could easily have been majors into South Florida. I don't think we are "due" in any means. If anything, we would be due to get a break this year, and the next several years after that.

[sprink52]

At the end of the day we have to admit that South Florida was not prepared for Francis, Jeanne or Wilma...God forbid we get any thing stronger. A significant part of our population have relocated here from large urban centers in the North East and are not emotionally equiped to deal with these storms.

I remember back in the '70's Dr. Niel Frank used to warn us about the coastal build up along the coasts of Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas. Now here we are 30 years later dealing with it.

We have a few people looking to leave and move back North but for the most part, I think people will stay here. Another season like last year with a major (3, 4 or 5) hitting us might send many people out of Florida.

[Scorpion]

Correct. Many people, particularly the lower middle class, will leave shall a strong major strike the metro areas. The insurance will get too high, and most people will be sick and tired of the power outages and other ordeals.

[sprink52]

Good point...also consider that there are still "blue roofs" all over Palm Beach County and the Treasure Coast. Imagine the mess we are going to have withmore storms on the horizon. Also...have you noticed that the only trees and vegetation that wasen't damaged was the native stuff? (i.e. Palmetto Palms, etc.)

[Derek Ortt]

a "few" too many blue roofs in Dade as well for my liking

[Windtalker1]

a "few" too many blue roofs in Dade as well for my liking

and Broward County also.

[hookemfins]

To say that Wilma doesn't count is wrong. If it affects the coastal waters than it counts as a hurricane. Maybe not a direct hit but it still counts. Also, Jeanne and Francis count as SE FL strikes. Anything from the top of the lake S counts as SE FL.

[MiamiensisWx]

To say that Wilma doesn't count is wrong. If it affects the coastal waters than it counts as a hurricane. Maybe not a direct hit but it still counts. Also, Jeanne and Francis count as SE FL strikes. Anything from the top of the lake S counts as SE FL.

True... Wilma does count highly in that respect. However, I meant that it did not count as a major hurricane in southeast Florida, because it was not a major hurricane when it passed through here. I am NOT saying anjy storm is weak; Wilma was awful here!

[Steve]

Florida will NOT be hit soon by a major. It's only February

Steve

[mike815]

lol only feb before u know it its june

[Steve]

Yeah you right Mike. We're only 3 1/2 months until the season starts. I haven't even taken up my floors or knocked out my ceilings yet from last year. And I'm living in a FEMA camper. LOL. We're supposed to get some gusts into the 30's and 40's this weekend behind the passage of a strong cold front. I'd like to see how mine holds up. It's strapped pretty good, but it's not going to withstand hurricane winds, that's for sure.

In other words, if the trailer is rocking, it's probably okay to knock.

Steve

[MiamiensisWx]

I just found out that the last major storm to hit southeast Florida (besides Andrew from 1992) was Betsy from 1965. That means that well over twenty years have gone by with southeast Florida receiving only one storm that came in as still a major hurricane (Andrew).

[Scorpion]

I just found out that the last major storm to hit southeast Florida (besides Andrew from 1992) was Betsy from 1965. That means that well over twenty years have gone by with southeast Florida receiving only one storm that came in as still a major hurricane (Andrew).

And that hit the Keys more if anything. Jeanne was pretty close, however Im not even sure if Jeanne should even qualify as a major as there were no reported Cat 2 or 3 winds on land.