most due top ten

[DoctorHurricane2003]

The day a major hurricane hits Alaska is the day I retire from my job.

[JonathanBelles]

lol

[JonathanBelles]

in the world who is most due?

[mike815]

top ten anything is game now i have no top ten. whos going to get hit next nobody knows

[Jim Cantore]

No order in particular here

NYC
Jacksonville
Tampa
Houston
Boston (you heard me)
Mobile (thats right you heard right)

Places that kinda lucked out with their big last storm but are due for obliteration (not literally)

New Orleans (if I must say why just ask)
Miami (same here)

other notible overdue places

Jersey Shore
Texas coast
Chesapeke Bay region
South Carolina

Places that wont be due again for a WHILE!

Florida (Bonnie, Charley, Frances, Ivan, Jeanne, Arlene, Dennis, Katrina, Opehlia, Rita, Wilma)
Cozumel (Emily, Wilma)
Mexico coast in the southern Bay of Campeche (Bret, Gert, Jose, Stan)
Gulf Shores (hit by Ivan. Brushed by Arlene, Dennis and Katrina)

Places that just cant afford another hurricane now

Anywhere from Grand Isle to Dauphin Island
The Entire State of Florida
Cameron
Cozumel

Ultimate doomsday locations

New York City
New Orleans
Tampa
Houston
Miami

[JonathanBelles]

u can say all of that again

[OuterBanker]

With Bertha, Fran, Dennis, Floyd, Isabel, Alex ( and five others which went through NC in 04, don't care what NHC says about Alex) and Ophelia in the last 10 years I would include NC on your list for not due for awhile.

[Derek Ortt]

Mobile probably should be in the lucked out category, not overdue since Katrina did leave much of the city well under water

Most over due, IMO

1. Tampa
2. Galveston (Houston got their with Allison)
3. Corpus Christi
4. Honolulu
5. Panama City
6. Savanah
7. Hilo
8. Brownsville
9. Connecticuit/NYC
10. Delmarva

worst places (taking Katrina into the equation):

1. NYC (obvious... even before Katrina)
2. Honolulu
3. Houston
4. Miami
5. Tampa
6. The Keys (because nobody knows how to comply with an evac order)
7. Cheseapeake Bay
8. Cape Cod/Boston
9. New Orleans
10. Mobile

Areas that cannot withstand another:

Gulf Coast from Sabine Pass to Destin
Cozemul
Cuba
Florida Penninsula south of I-4
Outer Banks
Grenada
Haiti

[Downdraft]

Washington D.C. does not sit on the Chesapeake Bay it sits on the Potomac River.

[JonathanBelles]

Washington D.C. does not sit on the Chesapeake Bay it sits on the Potomac River.

and....

[Jim Cantore]

DC can still get belted by a weakening storm coming up the chesapeke

[Extremeweatherguy]

Mobile probably should be in the lucked out category, not overdue since Katrina did leave much of the city well under water

Most over due, IMO

1. Tampa
2. Galveston (Houston got their with Allison)
3. Corpus Christi
4. Honolulu
5. Panama City
6. Savanah
7. Hilo
8. Brownsville
9. Connecticuit/NYC
10. Delmarva

worst places (taking Katrina into the equation):

1. NYC (obvious... even before Katrina)
2. Honolulu
3. Houston
4. Miami
5. Tampa
6. The Keys (because nobody knows how to comply with an evac order)
7. Cheseapeake Bay
8. Cape Cod/Boston
9. New Orleans
10. Mobile

Areas that cannot withstand another:

Gulf Coast from Sabine Pass to Destin
Cozemul
Cuba
Florida Penninsula south of I-4
Outer Banks
Grenada
Haiti

Though Houston saw great amounts of flooding damage from Allison, I still would not count that as a reason we would not be due. First off, Allison hit Houston 5 years ago, second off sustained tropical force winds were never recorded in Houston from Allison, meaning that it was a non-event wind-wise. This thread deals with most due for Hurricanes, and Allison simply was not a hurricane...yes it was bad and caused damage...but no, it did not produce the extreme winds and damage of a hurricane. Allison caused about a billion in damages...a hurricane in Houston would probably cause over 15 billion (if weak), but possibly even over 100 billion (if strong)...so to say that a 1 billion dollar storm is comparable with a 15-100+ billion dollar storm would be crazy. Houston is still due.

[Derek Ortt]

well

allison was a 5 billion dollar storm, not a 1 billion one. Until Rita, it was the most destructive TC ever to hit Texas

the return period for destructive TC's is not that frequent

[Extremeweatherguy]

well

allison was a 5 billion dollar storm, not a 1 billion one. Until Rita, it was the most destructive TC ever to hit Texas

the return period for destructive TC's is not that frequent

well ok...a 5 billion dollar storm is still nothing compared to what a 15-100+ billion dollar storm would be like. Also, it was the most destructive until Rita because the storms of the past had hit when coastal population/city size/coastal construction was much lower. Had some of those past storms hit today, then we would be talking about insane amounts of damage. Plus, this is still about hurricanes, and as for hurricanes...Houston has not been hit directly since 83' and even then it was quite weak for the city (compared to what it could have been). To me, that would mean that Houston is still due.

[jasons2k]

Here's my list for the Atlantic (did not include Hawaii):

Overdue:

1. Tampa-St. Pete - to me this is a no brainer...it's a ticking time bomb.
2. Houston-Galveston
3. NYC
4. Corpus Christi
5. Sarasota-Bradenton
6. Savannah
7. Jacksonville
8. Panama City
9. Brownsville
10. Norfolk/Chesapeake Bay

Worst-Case Scenarios:

1. NYC
2. Tampa-St. Pete
3. Houston-Galveston
4. Miami
5. New Orleans
6. Sarasota-Bradenton
7. Norfolk/Chesapeake Bay
8. New England/Boston
9. The Keys
10. Tied: Mobile, Jacksonville, Fort Myers-Naples

IMO NYC stands alone here. Then Tampa and Houston are in their own category, then all the rest.

I think a direct hit on NYC, Tampa, or Houston-Galveston would be unlike anything we have ever seen - and incomparable to a hit even in Miami or NOLA. Those top 3 are really in a class of their own.

[Derek Ortt]

even with Galveston's sea wall?

Yes, the island would be devastated by the wind, but the same is true for Miami (where our hgih rises cannot withstand a surge).

Houston is a whole other story though and would be at least as bad as Miami due to the oil refineries and the ship channel

[jasons2k]

even with Galveston's sea wall?

Yes, the island would be devastated by the wind, but the same is true for Miami (where our hgih rises cannot withstand a surge).

Houston is a whole other story though and would be at least as bad as Miami due to the oil refineries and the ship channel

I think a direct/worst case scenario in Houston-Galveston would be far worse than Miami, for a few reasons.

1) The shallow shelf/geography/bay would contribute to a much worse/more widespread surge in Houston vs. Miami. That's one of the reasons why I think Tampa would be a lot worse than Miami as well. I don't think Miami is nearly as vulnerable to a surge. Also, the seawall would easily be overrun by a Cat. 4-5 surge.
2) The refineries, heavy industry, and chemical plants that line Galveston Bay/Freeport spell ecological disaster. The Dow Complex near Freeport is the world's largest petrochemical complex. Also the Ship Channel, etc. is lined with heavy industry.
3) Building Codes. They are very lax in Texas (for hurricanes). No such thing as CBS construction here. I live in Montgomery County, the first "tier" of inland counties and just a few miles from Harris County, and there are no hurricane building codes. Supposedly the coastal tier of counties has them but they are nothing like you find in Florida. All those ranch style homes built in the 70's/80's by builders like Fox & Jacobs will fall apart. Even the new econo-boxes built by Choice, D.R Horton, & KB homes....nothing but brick with a pine frame, are a disaster waiting to happen.

[Derek Ortt]

yeah... Miami is not exactly surge prone. Even less so is Miami Beach (Miami Beach has the same surge potential as Cayman, Miami can get about 15 feet if it gets a 5, but there is a ridge very near the coast so the surge wont go more than 1/4 mile inland).

The wind though has me worried about my city, especially after what Wilma did to it with cat 1 winds (primarily to the high rises). Houston does have worse codes though

[Extremeweatherguy]

even with Galveston's sea wall?

Yes, the island would be devastated by the wind, but the same is true for Miami (where our hgih rises cannot withstand a surge).

Houston is a whole other story though and would be at least as bad as Miami due to the oil refineries and the ship channel

I think a direct/worst case scenario in Houston-Galveston would be far worse than Miami, for a few reasons.

1) The shallow shelf/geography/bay would contribute to a much worse/more widespread surge in Houston vs. Miami. That's one of the reasons why I think Tampa would be a lot worse than Miami as well. I don't think Miami is nearly as vulnerable to a surge. Also, the seawall would easily be overrun by a Cat. 4-5 surge.
2) The refineries, heavy industry, and chemical plants that line Galveston Bay/Freeport spell ecological disaster. The Dow Complex near Freeport is the world's largest petrochemical complex. Also the Ship Channel, etc. is lined with heavy industry.
3) Building Codes. They are very lax in Texas (for hurricanes). No such thing as CBS construction here. I live in Montgomery County, the first "tier" of inland counties and just a few miles from Harris County, and there are no hurricane building codes. Supposedly the coastal tier of counties has them but they are nothing like you find in Florida. All those ranch style homes built in the 70's/80's by builders like Fox & Jacobs will fall apart. Even the new econo-boxes built by Choice, D.R Horton, & KB homes....nothing but brick with a pine frame, are a disaster waiting to happen.

very true. they still build wood-frame houses here too, which was outlawed after hurricane andrew in Florida.

[ROCK]

even with Galveston's sea wall?

Yes, the island would be devastated by the wind, but the same is true for Miami (where our hgih rises cannot withstand a surge).

Houston is a whole other story though and would be at least as bad as Miami due to the oil refineries and the ship channel

I think a direct/worst case scenario in Houston-Galveston would be far worse than Miami, for a few reasons.

1) The shallow shelf/geography/bay would contribute to a much worse/more widespread surge in Houston vs. Miami. That's one of the reasons why I think Tampa would be a lot worse than Miami as well. I don't think Miami is nearly as vulnerable to a surge. Also, the seawall would easily be overrun by a Cat. 4-5 surge.
2) The refineries, heavy industry, and chemical plants that line Galveston Bay/Freeport spell ecological disaster. The Dow Complex near Freeport is the world's largest petrochemical complex. Also the Ship Channel, etc. is lined with heavy industry.
3) Building Codes. They are very lax in Texas (for hurricanes). No such thing as CBS construction here. I live in Montgomery County, the first "tier" of inland counties and just a few miles from Harris County, and there are no hurricane building codes. Supposedly the coastal tier of counties has them but they are nothing like you find in Florida. All those ranch style homes built in the 70's/80's by builders like Fox & Jacobs will fall apart. Even the new econo-boxes built by Choice, D.R Horton, & KB homes....nothing but brick with a pine frame, are a disaster waiting to happen.

Not to bash home builders but your right KB homes are pretty cheap BUT they do include EVREYTHING.... Here closer to the coast, I did manage to have my home builder install extra hurricane clips.

Seawall is rated I believe for only 15-17 surge which would be overrun by cat4-5. Would not be pretty.

BTW- I did purchase flood insurance today eventhough I am not in a evac zone or flood zone. Best $300 I ever spent for peace of mind. I would suggest anyone here on the south end of town do the same.