Will New Orleans be hit by another major hurricane?

[Pearl River]

Slidell was in the western eyewall and had 6 to 8 feet of water in the middle of the city plus lots of wind damage. So it's not always the NE eyewall.

[JonathanBelles]

very true there were a lot of weird eyewalls in 2005

[zoeyann]

Isidore was a large and slow-moving hurricane, and had it not dove south into the Yucatan, it could've really did some damage as it was progged to head toward New Orleans

Totally see your point. Lili came the week after and was worse so when I think of Isidore I don't remember it all that bad when it got here. Completely forgot about how bad it could have been.

Actually the eye right over or just to the east of New Orleans would be worst, especially since now the levees are in a weakened condition, and the winds would be from the north, Lake Pontchartrain would essentially empty into New Orleans.

No the storm coming in like Besty from the west is worse than just to the east. New Orleans flooded quite badly for Besty in fact. As it comes in from the west side of you not only are you on the worse side to get surge but even after the surge is done with you the wind is still coming in from your southeast. The water does not just come in from the lake,but as the water rises in the southern areas from the surge the water levels rise in all of the canals and such. Then as the storm passes the wind shifts to a northeast wind pushing water the other direction and catching everything else. I'm not sure if I explained myself correctly. If not I'm sorry. Also part of my reasoning for Besty's path being worse is that it would also take out Houma and Thibodaux. Those are the largest cities near New Orleans that are below I-12. Having those three cities out of commission at the same time would make hard for the area to recover.

[wxmann_91]

No the storm coming in like Besty from the west is worse than just to the east. New Orleans flooded quite badly for Besty in fact. As it comes in from the west side of you not only are you on the worse side to get surge but even after the surge is done with you the wind is still coming in from your southeast. The water does not just come in from the lake,but as the water rises in the southern areas from the surge the water levels rise in all of the canals and such. Then as the storm passes the wind shifts to a northeast wind pushing water the other direction and catching everything else. I'm not sure if I explained myself correctly. If not I'm sorry. Also part of my reasoning for Besty's path being worse is that it would also take out Houma and Thibodaux. Those are the largest cities near New Orleans that are below I-12. Having those three cities out of commission at the same time would make hard for the area to recover.

Good point. I completely forgot about the canals.

[Derek Ortt]

Betsy did not have anywhere near the impact to New Orleans that Katrina did. The city did not go under water. A track about 30 miles east of Betsy... then its a whole different story

[skysummit]

The city did not go under water, but areas of St. Bernard Parish did. There were still many homes flooded by Betsy, but nothing even close to what Katrina did.

I listen to 870AM over here during work since I'm always in my company vehicle, and it's nuts....each and every day they're still talking about the recovery efforts. Places in New Orleans East, St. Bernard Parish, and the lower 9th ward still looks as if the storm hit yesterday.

I do believe NOLA will get hit again this year. I don't know if it'll be a major hurricane, but at least a CAT 1 or 2.

[Pearl River]

Parts of New Orleans did flood. The Lower 9th ward being one of the areas flooded. 164,000 homes total flooded in SE LA when Betsy made landfall. Betsy was also the first hurricane to cause 1 billion dollars in damage.

[Ixolib]

Betsy did not have anywhere near the impact to New Orleans that Katrina did. The city did not go under water. A track about 30 miles east of Betsy... then its a whole different story

All things being relative in terms of population and urban congestion, etc., - 1965 & 2005 - Betsy's impact was actually pretty comparable. To say she "did not have anywhere near" the impact of Katrina is a bit off the facts...

Betsy was one of the most intense, deadly, and costly storms to make landfall in the United States. The storm killed seventy six people in Louisiana. Betsy caused $1.42 billion in damage, which when adjusted for inflation amounts to $8.5 billion (2000 USD). Betsy was the first hurricane to cause damages in excess of $1 billion (based on damage at the time of the storm - many storms before then have inflation-adjusted damage over $1 billion); the storm thus earned the nickname "Billion-Dollar Betsy".

Betsy drove storm surge into Lake Pontchartrain, just north of New Orleans, pushing water over levees around the lake and into the city. The Florida Avenue levee was breached, which led to greater flooding in the Lower 9th Ward of New Orleans and neighboring Chalmette. Flood water reached the eaves of houses in some places in the city, and over some one story roofs in the Lower Ninth Ward, drowning some people in their attics where they had tried to flee the rising waters.President Lyndon Johnson visited the city, promising New Orleans Mayor Vic Schiro Federal aid.

It was ten days or more before the water level in New Orleans went down enough for people to return to their homes. It took even longer than that to restore their flooded houses to a livable condition. Those who did not have family or friends with dry homes had to sleep in the shelters at night and forage for supplies during the day, while waiting for the federal government to provide emergency relief in the form of trailers.

In all, 164,000 homes were flooded at the second landfall.

Perhaps it just has to do with ones definition of "near"...

Sources:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Betsy
http://www.ticam.utexas.edu

[Astro_man92]

I have not voted yet but just imagine if a major hurricane hit while NO was still down. That would be tiring and frustrating. Huh, is that what happeneed to florida in 2004. they where practicly hit While there back was turned, and then again when they where still cleaning up. So i guess they where hi while they where down except for they haven't had a years break yet from hurricanes and where pumbled in 04' and 05'.

[Stormcenter]

Maybe a tropical storm but not a hurricane or anything like Katrina. IMO

[Derek Ortt]

thed flooding was severe, but it wasn't Katrina. Many areas that did not flood during Betsy did during Katrina

[TS Zack]

Can we just like take a year off. Pleaseeeeee

I just would like to graduate High School, don't ruin my senior year. Then after that they can hit every 5 minutes for all I care. City is never going to be what it once was and I will not be here to try to bring it to that.

[Pearl River]

Winds reached 125 mph in New Orleans. The Weather Bureau lost power at that time and had to switch the forecasting back to Miami.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Winds reached 125 mph in New Orleans. The Weather Bureau lost power at that time and had to switch the forecasting back to Miami.

are you referring to Katrina or a past storm? because with Katrina winds never reached 125mph in New Orleans. I have seen wind reports and heard on the weather channel that top winds in New Orleans were probably only 75-90mph sustained with gusts to 100-120mph. It may have been 125mph right at landfall, but not west of the eyewall in New Orleans...but if you are talking about a past storm, then yes I am sure it has happened before.

[sunny]

Winds reached 125 mph in New Orleans. The Weather Bureau lost power at that time and had to switch the forecasting back to Miami.

are you referring to Katrina or a past storm? because with Katrina winds never reached 125mph in New Orleans. I have seen wind reports and heard on the weather channel that top winds in New Orleans were probably only 75-90mph sustained with gusts to 100-120mph. It may have been 125mph right at landfall, but not west of the eyewall in New Orleans...but if you are talking about a past storm, then yes I am sure it has happened before.

I heard the Coast Guard here reported gusts up to 140 with Katrina.

[tailgater]

worst case scenario would be a landfall between the mississippi river and grand isle which would take the center of the eye about 5 miles west of downtown NO

Actually the eye right over or just to the east of New Orleans would be worst, especially since now the levees are in a weakened condition, and the winds would be from the north, Lake Pontchartrain would essentially empty into New Orleans.

doesn't matter in the northern hemisphere the NE eyewall is always the worst beacuse thats were the strongest winds worst surge is.had Katrina gone over NO .just take a look at the mississippi coast imagine a 30 ft storm surge coming into a city that is already below sea level

IMHO the worst case would be a storm regenerating after coming off the Yucatan Penn. moving slowly NNE, gaining intensity as it approached, with strong ESE winds along the eastern La. and southern Miss. coast piling up water in Lake Borgne, Pontchartrain and Maurepas well in advance of the storm surge( because of the pressure gradient between the storm and a building High over the eastern seaboard). This storm then starts to turn due N and then slightly NNW as comes on shore at Grand Isle on a track that takes it just west of METRO N.O. with CAT 4 winds. This would cause a storm surge as large as Katrina's in areas with MUCH LOWER ELEVATION completely cutting off almost all of southeast La.
Southern Miss. would again be hit hard, but places like Gretna, Metairie, Westwego, Kenner, Belle Chase, Raceland, Slidell and Laplace( countless other small towns) would be flooded to some degree just from the storm surge.
I hate even thinking about such a thing, but such a storm would cut off every highway to the other 3/4 of the Metro New Orleans and surrounding area.
That said I'm ready to try cloud seeding again.

[Pearl River]

Sorry, I was talking about Betsy. It was brought up earlier.

[zoeyann]

thed flooding was severe, but it wasn't Katrina. Many areas that did not flood during Betsy did during Katrina

I think a contributing factor in that is the loss of the barrier islands and alot of land since then.

[Derek Ortt]

the highest official gust in NO from Betsy was 105 m.p.h. I really have no idea where a 125 sustained came from, because nobody accepts that New Orleans received category 3 winds from Betsy

now, 125 at Grand Isle seems a lot more plausable

[Pearl River]

I got the 125 mph from the Preliminary Report on Betsy.

By 11:20 pm est the winds at New Orleans had exceeded 100 miles an hour and by midnight the storm was 35 miles southwest of New Orleans. The winds reached 125 miles an hour at 11:46 pm at which time power failed at the New Orleans Weather Bureau Office and advisory responsibility was transferred back to Miami.

The Preliminary Report is now what the Hurricane Center call's The Tropical Cyclone Report.