Is this year setting up like last?

[mike815]

right good point

[windycity]

wats with the sst s? a couple of days ago,sst were still running above normal. today jim hughes mentioned waters may be cooling. wat gives?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

My numbers will likely go down big time for named storms this season if the waters keep cooling down. Theres a chance we might get a fairly strong cape verde season but with most of them becoming fish.

If the waters fellow the current trend through the next 2 months. Here what I maybe thinking...

13 to 15 named storms...I think we are well below what we where last year at this time.

[Tyler]

My numbers will likely go down big time for named storms this season if the waters keep cooling down. Theres a chance we might get a fairly strong cape verde season but with most of them becoming fish.

If the waters fellow the current trend through the next 2 months. Here what I maybe thinking...

13 to 15 named storms...I think we are well below what we where last year at this time.

I wouldn't base your outlook solely on SST's, especially in January. SST's are only 1 small part for development of a tropical cyclone. Waters may be cooler than last year, but thats really not going to mean much...

[Astro_man92]

oh no, Maybe the natural cycle is still heating up maybe 2005 was just a taste uf what will happen in 2006, and 2006 to 2007, sorta like what 2004 was to 2005. I have a feeling 2005 will be blown out of the water this year

[mike815]

YUP i agree

[Astro_man92]

If I'm right 2006 will be fun to track but will be devistating to the Carribean, Mexico, and the US

I have a feeling i'm not going to last till august.

hmm just imagine what if we never had that miniature lull in the middle of 2005

[Extremeweatherguy]

I have a feeling that 2006 will be a big Cape Verde season, but also just as big of a caribbean and Gulf season. I think the early season will feature many backyard forming storms that will pop up near the bahammas, in the Gulf or in the western Caribbean and reach TS strength or minimal hurricane strength before landfall. Later in the season I would expect the same thing, except with the addiction of many cape verde storms. I would also expect many major storms late in the season.

[Astro_man92]

Yah, 2005 had 30 storms including depressions, 27 named storms, and I think 14 Hurricanes.

If 2006 goes how I think it might it will do the imposible and have 5-7 more systems then 2005 but honestly there are rules and it seems almost imposible for a season to have 35 totoal storms. I think now that i've said that, that 2006 might be near as above average as 2005 and might have over 20 total storms. After 2005 20 storms seems whimpy but you have to remember the previous 1-2 place standings for the record for most storms where:

1. 1933 : 21
2. 1995 : 19

So i think that 06' - 09' might be Super Seasons (seasons with over 20 storms)

[windycity]

ok, i guess wat i wonder is how are sst compared to 2004? i know they are cooler than last year .

[EDR1222]

It will be interesting to see where the Bermuda High begins establishing itself as we get close to May. I remember in 2004, some felt the strong Bermuda high during May of that year could possibly spell trouble and as we know, the rest is history. Obviously 05 showed us we don't need a set-up like 04 to have a big problem!

[gatorcane]

It will be interesting to see where the Bermuda High begins establishing itself as we get close to May. I remember in 2004, some felt the strong Bermuda high during May of that year could possibly spell trouble and as we know, the rest is history. Obviously 05 showed us we don't need a set-up like 04 to have a big problem

!

Unfortunately there doesn't seem to be a pattern with the Bermuda High. In 2005, the Bermuda high was not nearly as strong or pronounced as it was the year before. That means nothing, however, as S. Florida can easily get hit from the S and W as we saw with Wilma (people forget just how powerful the GOM and Caribbean storms can be for S. Florida)

Here in S. Florida it's pretty easy to tell what the Bermuda High will entail by observing the wind and cloud patterns in May. In 2004, strong E and ESE winds were already beginning and the coastal areas typically remained dry while clouds pushed westward into interior S. Florida.

In May 2005, just a few string of days where we saw the E and SE wind pattern. Most of the time, we saw lingering clouds along the coast and variable winds governed by seabreeze/land interaction...

I think May is a telling month for S. Florida threats

[JonathanBelles]

It will be interesting to see where the Bermuda High begins establishing itself as we get close to May. I remember in 2004, some felt the strong Bermuda high during May of that year could possibly spell trouble and as we know, the rest is history. Obviously 05 showed us we don't need a set-up like 04 to have a big problem

!

Unfortunately there doesn't seem to be a pattern with the Bermuda High. In 2005, the Bermuda high was not nearly as strong or pronounced as it was the year before. That means nothing, however, as S. Florida can easily get hit from the S and W as we saw with Wilma (people forget just how powerful the GOM and Caribbean storms can be for S. Florida)

Here in S. Florida it's pretty easy to tell what the Bermuda High will entail by observing the wind and cloud patterns in May. In 2004, strong E and ESE winds were already beginning and the coastal areas typically remained dry while clouds pushed westward into interior S. Florida.

In May 2005, just a few string of days where we saw the E and SE wind pattern. Most of the time, we saw lingering clouds along the coast and variable winds governed by seabreeze/land interaction...

I think May is a telling month for S. Florida threats

i think we may have to know earlier than may

[Weatherfreak14]

Here the SST's are much much warmer than it needs to be. Here off coast of SC our SST's are 10 degrees above what they should be for this time of year.

[mike815]

yup they sure are

[tornadochaser1986]

im going to make a prediction if i may this season will be as bad if not worse than the last i mean just a week ago there was a tropical wave near mexico in January

[mike815]

yeah i know

[Jim Cantore]

If la nina holds we might get the Carolinas and the Mid atlantic targeted