Dooms day hurricane Miami...(My thinking)

[Extremeweatherguy]

Skyscrapers falling over?

No offense, but they are better engineered than that. They look flimsy, but they're really not, otherwise the fatigue of constant wind blowing over decades (in the case of NYC) would have weakenend and toppled them, and the older buildings there have seen some gusts from the '38 cane, Gloria, Bob, and Hazel, to name a few.

I'm not an engineer, but I work in an agency that has hundreds of them. I'll send this along to one of them and see if it's even remotely plausible.

You know the Discovery Channel had an abysmal show on "what if the Great Red Spot was on Earth...flattening Miami just like that." This sounds strangely like that.

during Katrina they said that if it would have made landfall at 175mph, that a few skyscrapers in New Orleans may have toppled. Lots of those buildings can only take 150-250mph wind gusts. Also, some of the older buildings are even weaker. It would take a monster hurricane to actually acomplish this though. We have yet to see a cat. 5 wind speed in a major U.S. city (the closest was Miami with Andrew...but even then, downtown Miami only saw about Cat. 2 force winds). I think that most would probably NOT collapse...but I could see 1 or 2 collapsing if a STRONG Cat. 5 hit a major city dead on.

[Jim Cantore]

Dooms day hurricane Miami...


A tropical distrabances moves off Africa on the 26th of August...The area shows some low pressure, with most of its convection to the south. Because of the SAL/northwestly wind shear. Foreacasters thinking is that chances will be very low for development. In has the system/wave/distrabance moves out into the Eastern Atlantic. Near the Cape verdes the system loses its convection. It becomes a dryed out wave as it moves across the Atlatnic. Kind of like hurricane Dennis of 2005...In which had almost no convection intill the caribbean.

The system is hard to track for 5 days as it moves west-northwestward into the Northern Caribbean/Central Atlantic. On September first of 2006 convection starts forming as the enviroment around the system is becoming much better for development. Forecast models show that a anticyclone should form over the area. In which the Gfs is showing a 30 knot decrease in shear. In so the forecast overall called for shear levels to go from 35 knots to 0 to 5 knots. With a Anticyclone being forecasted on line with Wilma of 2005. But the nhc forecasters say that it is impossible to trust the Gfs at this time...In so they over look the model.

The next day at 4pm est the second of Septemeber Visible/Ir satellite shows a low pressure. With convection forming right over it at minus 80c. The shear maps show that the shear at this time has decreased to 10 knots. With the Atmosphere has become very moist in faverable. Outflow Jets coming out of the north in south. The LLC forms at 23 north/72 west. The system at this time has turned westward or slightly west-northwest. Max mayfield is looking at the system in amazement at this time. In says that a recon is forecasted to look at the system early on the third of September.

At 11pm est the second the system has 2 knot shear over it. With outflow jets shooting all the way into the Eastern Pacific. In the Cdo is 600 miles wide. At this time The cyclone is centered at 24 north/75 west.

The recon gets into the system at 5am est on the third of September. In the cyclone is at 24.8 north/77. Max mayfield said that we wented to wait for the recon to make sure that the system was a tropical cyclone before issueing Advisories. At the time of the recon they found a 115 mph Major hurricane with pressure of 935 millibars. The Nhc races to issue Advisories in put warnings for the Miami area. The system slows down in a clear eye forms just hours after the first recon.

The second recon as the system is just hours away from making landfall on Miami. Finds something that will Amaze every one for the next 100 years. They find as it was centered at 25/79 or just off shore a cat5 hurricane with cloud tops of Wilma. In a eye 25 nmi wide...With a pressure of 875 millibars with 180 mph winds.

At this time the eye wall is making landfall on Miami. The skyscrappers are thrown to the ground half full. In people trying to get out of Miami. This beast of a hurricane will never be forgotten by the few survivers that had to live through hell for 6 hours. As the hurricane moves across Florida into the Gulf. The hurricane weakens from 180 mph to 140 mph...

The hurricane hits the Loop current it rebombs. The back up hurriacne center has tooken over at this time. In no word has been recovered out of the area. But the monster moves westward still...2 days later it bombs into a 200 mph monster over the loop current with 862 millibar pressure. But the hurricane then moves pass 25/90 in of the loop. In which the hurricane weakens.

But the hurricane this time reminds a cat5 of at least 160 mph winds. In makes landfall on Houston metro area on the 6th of September. Forecasters are Amazed more then ever with Katrina,Rita,Wilma. The shock is setting in.


500 billion dollars with the damage was caused. With 400k death toll in Miami alone. Fellowed by 250k for Houston.


2006 will not be forgotten ever!

What about a cat 5 into NYC?

[Scorpion]

a cat 5 is not going to make it to the north Texas Coast. A 4? Maybe

However, even with only 1 hour over land, that is still about 1 full category of weakening. This yields the marginal 3 worst case scenario, still will devastate the city, just not level it

why wouldn't a 5 make it here? never say never...or else you may be surprised when it actually happens. Also...what if the storm was a very fast mover (over 25mph)...if this was the case, it would reach Houston in less than 2 hrs. With a strong (175mph) cat. 5 at landfall...it would probably still be a 4 in downtown Houston...not a marginal 3. I do pray that no strong hurricane ever hits Houston, but there definitely is a "chance". Also, once again about the Cat. 5 thing...I think a 5 could certainly reach us. If the waters were warm enough, and if the shear was low enough, then it could certainly make it. Also, about Galveston bay being too small...that is not always true. I have seen a hurricane maintain or gain strength INLAND!!! I have seen that happen over the warm lake Okeechobee in Florida. Something like that would probably happen with Galveston Bay...especially since the water is usually well over 90F during the summer. With water that warm the storm could easily have enough fuel to either maintain strength or only very slowly diminish.

The fact that most of the circulation is over land means that there is no way in hell a Cat 5 will make landfall on the Texas coast, much less a 175 mph one. There is less heat content as well, not to mention dry air entrainment.

[MiamiensisWx]

A Category Five may be able to make landfall in coastal extreme southern Texas or Mexico, however.

[Extremeweatherguy]

a cat 5 is not going to make it to the north Texas Coast. A 4? Maybe

However, even with only 1 hour over land, that is still about 1 full category of weakening. This yields the marginal 3 worst case scenario, still will devastate the city, just not level it

why wouldn't a 5 make it here? never say never...or else you may be surprised when it actually happens. Also...what if the storm was a very fast mover (over 25mph)...if this was the case, it would reach Houston in less than 2 hrs. With a strong (175mph) cat. 5 at landfall...it would probably still be a 4 in downtown Houston...not a marginal 3. I do pray that no strong hurricane ever hits Houston, but there definitely is a "chance". Also, once again about the Cat. 5 thing...I think a 5 could certainly reach us. If the waters were warm enough, and if the shear was low enough, then it could certainly make it. Also, about Galveston bay being too small...that is not always true. I have seen a hurricane maintain or gain strength INLAND!!! I have seen that happen over the warm lake Okeechobee in Florida. Something like that would probably happen with Galveston Bay...especially since the water is usually well over 90F during the summer. With water that warm the storm could easily have enough fuel to either maintain strength or only very slowly diminish.

The fact that most of the circulation is over land means that there is no way in hell a Cat 5 will make landfall on the Texas coast, much less a 175 mph one. There is less heat content as well, not to mention dry air entrainment.

wait a second? You are refering to the Texas coast as a whole? what land does it go over before reaching the "coast" of Texas? The Gulf of Mexico? I am not saying a Cat. 5 in downtown Houston...I am saying a Cat. 5 landfall on the coast like in Galveston and then a strong 3/weak 4 for downtown Houston. It is certainly possible for a Cat. 5 landfall on the Texas "coast" though. Also, the waters of the NW Gulf are not cooler than those elsewhere....last summer the waters off the coast of Texas got to be over 90F. So basically there is a "chance in hell" for a Texas Cat. 5 landfall...just may be not a chance for a Cat. 5 in downtown Houston.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The following link does not have to do necessarily with Cat. 5 storms...but I found it VERY interesting! Look at all the tropical storms and hurricanes to hit the upper Texas Coast in the 1940s! Houston would have been wind whipped on MANY occasions. The worst looks to be the one in 1949 which made landfall near Freeport as a Cat. 4, then curved right into Houston as (still) a major hurricane.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/hurricanes/1940s_maps.htm

***The 1940s was during the last active hurricane cycle. Could we be in for a similar scenario over the next many years again?***

[windycity]

I agree with alot of you that a cat 5 / miami is HIGHLY unlikley to escape the attention of NH and of course,Derek! They all did a amazing job in 05 so i think we can expect that to continue. Last year i was going nuts wonderin why they took so long to evac N.O (they,meaning the mayor and gov) That would not happen hear . Our state is too gunshy and we know about hurricanes. We need to prepare though , like we should every year.

[Derek Ortt]

of my friends wh used to be at rsmas, now is in the MW, had a theory that the major river runoff contributes to the cooler waters. If this is the case, the south Texas coast liely would not support a 5 due to the Rio Grande, but the central TX coast could. Theory needs much more research

[Stratosphere747]

of my friends wh used to be at rsmas, now is in the MW, had a theory that the major river runoff contributes to the cooler waters. If this is the case, the south Texas coast liely would not support a 5 due to the Rio Grande, but the central TX coast could. Theory needs much more research

You have made some valid ideas on this "river" theory Derek. But not so sure if it has merit with respect to Texas.

The only significant river on the lower Texas coast *south* is the Rio Grande and the Nuces is probably considered borderline between lower and middle.

While the middle Texas coast *central* has a few....Guadalupe, San Antonio AND the Colorado. Interesting to note is that the Indianola hurricane of 1886 and arguably the strongest hurricane to hit Texas made landfall in the general vicinity. The Brazos which is no stream itself is not that much farther north.

[ROCK]

the scenario is pure science fiction. The NHC would NEVER not issue advisories while a system is impacting land, when there is a well-defined eye, like there would be in a category 3 hurricane. Advisories would begin, even if they were waiting, when a consensus Dvorak reached 2.0 or 2.5

there would be 3 hourly recon scheduled well before as well

Houston will never fare worse than Lauderdale did in Wilma. IT'S 50 MILES INLAND.

The death toll is also extremely unrealistic. There is no way a hurricane in a non storm surge prone region is going to cause as many deaths as did Treblinka

Actually, as a crow flys downtown Houston is only about 40 miles inland...but you also need to consider Galveston bay which runs about 30-40 miles inland. If a hurricane were to go right up Galveston bay (which can be over 90F in the summer), then it may be able to maintain intensity or intensify. Because of Galveston Bay, some places in south Houston would actually see major storm surges during a cat. 5 hurricane as well as Galveston and all other areas of the coast. In 1983 with Hurricane Alicia, which was only a weak Cat. 3 at landfall, downtown Houston saw gusts over 100mph...enough to blow out thousands of windowns in downtown skyscrapers. IF a CAT. 5 were to come right up Galveston bay, then downtown Houston could still see Cat. 5 conditions...THAT would be the worst case scenario as many would not have left town and be surprised when 200mph gusts started ripping through thier neighborhood. I think if that kind of scenario were to play out...the death toll could certainly surpass 5-10K.

Just to clarify. Most of the windows DT were blown out from loose gravel on adjacent roofs. Back then, most roofs were the tar and gravel type.

The only gust I saw even close to (90mph)100mph (per the NHC) was at hobby Airport which is 10 or so miles away from DT. You might have had gust that high at higher elevations though.

Also Galveston Bay is extremely shallow (I know I have a beach house on the west end, stupid me). Not counting the channel, water is only about 7-10ft deep. Not sure even at 90F, that a TS could sustain its strength over these waters.

I would go high end cat 2 winds DT with gusts into 3 range if a 5 hit Freeport / Galveston.

[onetimeposter2]

Also, Alicia is probably not the best example of a marginal category 3.

The aircraft measured a wind at flight level ( 5000 feet ) of 115 MPH along the coast just 12 miles east of Galveston at 2:34 AM CDT...0736Z.

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/storm_archives/atlantic/prelimat/atl1983/alicia/prelim02.gif

[Extremeweatherguy]

the scenario is pure science fiction. The NHC would NEVER not issue advisories while a system is impacting land, when there is a well-defined eye, like there would be in a category 3 hurricane. Advisories would begin, even if they were waiting, when a consensus Dvorak reached 2.0 or 2.5

there would be 3 hourly recon scheduled well before as well

Houston will never fare worse than Lauderdale did in Wilma. IT'S 50 MILES INLAND.

The death toll is also extremely unrealistic. There is no way a hurricane in a non storm surge prone region is going to cause as many deaths as did Treblinka

Actually, as a crow flys downtown Houston is only about 40 miles inland...but you also need to consider Galveston bay which runs about 30-40 miles inland. If a hurricane were to go right up Galveston bay (which can be over 90F in the summer), then it may be able to maintain intensity or intensify. Because of Galveston Bay, some places in south Houston would actually see major storm surges during a cat. 5 hurricane as well as Galveston and all other areas of the coast. In 1983 with Hurricane Alicia, which was only a weak Cat. 3 at landfall, downtown Houston saw gusts over 100mph...enough to blow out thousands of windowns in downtown skyscrapers. IF a CAT. 5 were to come right up Galveston bay, then downtown Houston could still see Cat. 5 conditions...THAT would be the worst case scenario as many would not have left town and be surprised when 200mph gusts started ripping through thier neighborhood. I think if that kind of scenario were to play out...the death toll could certainly surpass 5-10K.

Just to clarify. Most of the windows DT were blown out from loose gravel on adjacent roofs. Back then, most roofs were the tar and gravel type.

The only gust I saw even close to (90mph)100mph (per the NHC) was at hobby Airport which is 10 or so miles away from DT. You might have had gust that high at higher elevations though.

Also Galveston Bay is extremely shallow (I know I have a beach house on the west end, stupid me). Not counting the channel, water is only about 7-10ft deep. Not sure even at 90F, that a TS could sustain its strength over these waters.

I would go high end cat 2 winds DT with gusts into 3 range if a 5 hit Freeport / Galveston.

I still have to diagree. Even if there was no bay...it all has to do with the speed of a storm. Hurricane charley struck Florida as a Cat.4, but 50 miles inland there was still cat. 3+ damage. Why? Well the storm was moving at 25mph, thus it was gaining more ground as it weakened. Were a Cat. 5 to hit the upper Texas coast moving at 25mph, it would probably still be a Cat. 4 downtown...may be a strong 3 if it had a weak eye structure. Also, storms have remained hurricanes for long distances inland. Charley, for example, crossed the state of Florida from Punta Gorda to Daytona Beach without losing hurricane strength. Also, Hurricane Hugo hit S.C. as a Cat. 4 and remained a hurricane all the way to past Charlotte, NC. Even with Katrina; hurricane force winds were recorded over 150 miles inland. Basically, the point I am trying to make is that the stronger the storm, and the faster the speed, the further inland the swath of strong winds will occur. Worst case scenario for Houston (in my mind) is a 165mph cat. 5 landfall on Galveston, it then moves up Galveston Bay and weakens to a Cat. 4; Downtown Houston then gets Strong Cat. 3/Weak Cat. 4 winds with gusts over 150mph. At IAH a gust hits 139mph before the wind gauge fails. Then, the eye turns towards the woodlands. In the woodlands they get 100mph sustained winds, but gusts still top 130mph. In Conroe they report gusts to 121mph. Then, EVENTUALLY the storm reaches Lufkin where a gust to 85mph is clocked. The storm eventually dies to a TS shortly after and finally becomes a TD once reaching Little Rock, AK (keep in mind that Katrina was still a weak TS in Tenessee...so a TS all the way to Arkansas is very possible). And that is MY version of Houston's worst case scenario...but with nature you never know...she has her own plans...anything is possible...but I think a storm stronger than a Cat. 2 is very possible in downtown Houston.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Also, Alicia is probably not the best example of a marginal category 3.

The aircraft measured a wind at flight level ( 5000 feet ) of 115 MPH along the coast just 12 miles east of Galveston at 2:34 AM CDT...0736Z.

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/storm_archives/atlantic/prelimat/atl1983/alicia/prelim02.gif

yeah, you are probably right. It seems to have been weakening at landfall. 78mph wind gusts at IAH are pretty weak compared to what a hurricane CAN do. 99mph at Hobby and 102mph at the coast are pretty respectable though. I have seen 100-110mph wind gusts in Orlando during hurricane charley and that was enough to knock down the giant metal billboards in parts of the city as well as down thousands of trees and de-shingle most homes.

[wxmann_91]

99mph at Hobby and 102mph at the coast are pretty respectable though.

That's equivalent to sustained winds of around 70-75 mph. Strong TS-minimal hurricane conditions.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Alicia be downgraded to a 95-100 mph hurricane at landfall after reanalysis.

[Extremeweatherguy]

99mph at Hobby and 102mph at the coast are pretty respectable though.

That's equivalent to sustained winds of around 70-75 mph. Strong TS-minimal hurricane conditions.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Alicia be downgraded to a 95-100 mph hurricane at landfall after reanalysis.

I think they need to re-evaluate the saffir simpson scale too. In Orlando we only saw 77mph sustained winds, but with the gusts to 105+mph we saw damage that was equal to the saffir-simpson scale's Cat. 2. I think they need to take the gusts into more of an account. If you are on the east side of a strom going 25mph, then you will add 25mph to the storms gusts meaning that you will see wind gusts to 30mph+ over the actual sustained wind, and with most of a hurricanes damage done by the gusts (wind wise), then may be we need a scale based more on the gusts within a storm and less so much on the sustained winds. Just a thought...

[WaitingForSiren]

Heres a better example of a doomsday situation:

The clouds seperate and out appears Zues, he casts his hands and out appears "OMGWTFBBQ" 1 mile east of New York City. Sustained winds of 38432948329 MPH and a Pressure of -3843249324829 MB. It hits the gulf stream and bombs, and blows the whole United States into China.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Heres a better example of a doomsday situation:

The clouds seperate and out appears Zues, he casts his hands and out appears "OMGWTFBBQ" 1 mile east of New York City. Sustained winds of 38432948329 MPH and a Pressure of -3843249324829 MB. It hits the gulf stream and bombs, and blows the whole United States into China.

lol. yeah with pressures that low...the wind would be the least of our worries. The whole world would probably turn into a black hole or something.

[WaitingForSiren]

LOL, thats probably true. Imagine that, the whole ocean would be roatating, with a huge area of absolutely dry land the size of the US or something where the eye would be.

[Derek Ortt]

Charley had weakened to a marginal 3 when it reached Arcadia, if that as Arcadia in the eye wall measured only cat 2 sustained

[Extremeweatherguy]

Charley had weakened to a marginal 3 when it reached Arcadia, if that as Arcadia in the eye wall measured only cat 2 sustained

For some reason though...the measurment of strong cat. 2 sustained seems like it was almost too low. Did you look at the damage in arcadia? Huge watertowers collapsed, roofing was peeled off, windows were blown out, most trees were downed and/or defoliated. According to the saffir-simpson scale...you only see that kind of destruction for a Cat. 3 or higher. "OfficiallY" Charley was still a marginal Cat. 3 there like you said, so may be the worst winds did not occur at the recording station in Arcadia...but Cat. 3+ winds were still in that area. Also, Charley was only a 150mph Cat. 4....If we are talking about the "doomsday" scenario, then we are talking about a 175mph Cat. 5...which means that the winds inland would be upped by 25mph from whatever Charley's winds were in places in Florida...but instead we would be talking about Texas. Also..there are some people that would estimate winds sustained in Orlando at 100mph...but officially the airport only got 77-80mph sustained and 105mph gusts...yet most planes were flipped and many hangers were ripped open.