Zeta,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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hurricanefreak1988
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#41 Postby hurricanefreak1988 » Fri Dec 30, 2005 1:30 pm

Well, this is very interesting to see, but I can't say I'm all that surprised. This being 2005, I have learned to expect anything and everything. What a season.

WindRunner wrote:I think it's safe to assume that this will be the last storm for 2005

Yep. Even if we have any more surprises in the coming weeks, those go on the scoreboard for 2006.

cycloneye wrote:And this seals the Atlantic as the Chamipions of the 2005 tropics around the world 30 vs 25 the WPAC and 16 the EPAC.

Hold on now, the West Pac could still dish out six storms in 30 hours. You never know. :wink:

Stormcenter wrote:I think I can safely say that there will NOT be another season like the 2005 for a lvery ong long time if ever.

This season has been the greatest ever. I agree with you, and I've been saying it for a while now- I don't think we'll ever see a season like this again.

HURAKAN wrote:By the way, I heard that Zeta isn't very happy with the fact that the 2005 Hurricane Season Awards were done and she wasn't invited!

This is exactly why I wasn't planning on handing out my awards until after New Year's Day. Glad I waited.
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#42 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Dec 30, 2005 1:35 pm

wow, heard it on the news this morning.....unbelievable! makes me wonder if 2005 and 2006 will kind of mesh into one another with no real break in between the seasons, wow!
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#43 Postby vbhoutex » Fri Dec 30, 2005 1:37 pm

ivanhater wrote:wow, heard it on the news this morning.....unbelievable! makes me wonder if 2005 and 2006 will kind of mesh into one another with no real break in between the seasons, wow!


HUSH YOUR MOUTH SON!!!!!! THEY MIGHT HEAR YOU!!!! :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:
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#44 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Dec 30, 2005 1:42 pm

vbhoutex wrote:
ivanhater wrote:wow, heard it on the news this morning.....unbelievable! makes me wonder if 2005 and 2006 will kind of mesh into one another with no real break in between the seasons, wow!


HUSH YOUR MOUTH SON!!!!!! THEY MIGHT HEAR YOU!!!! :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:


Lol :lol:
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#45 Postby southerngale » Fri Dec 30, 2005 1:47 pm

vbhoutex wrote:
ivanhater wrote:wow, heard it on the news this morning.....unbelievable! makes me wonder if 2005 and 2006 will kind of mesh into one another with no real break in between the seasons, wow!


HUSH YOUR MOUTH SON!!!!!! THEY MIGHT HEAR YOU!!!! :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:


Too late.
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#46 Postby cycloneye » Fri Dec 30, 2005 1:55 pm

TROPICAL STORM ZETA (AL302005) ON 20051230 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051230 1800 051231 0600 051231 1800 060101 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.1N 37.0W 25.3N 37.3W 25.4N 36.5W 25.4N 34.8W
BAMM 25.1N 37.0W 25.4N 38.1W 25.6N 38.9W 25.7N 39.6W
A98E 25.1N 37.0W 25.8N 37.7W 26.2N 38.0W 27.1N 37.4W
LBAR 25.1N 37.0W 25.8N 37.2W 26.4N 37.6W 26.7N 37.9W
SHIP 45KTS 46KTS 42KTS 35KTS
DSHP 45KTS 46KTS 42KTS 35KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060101 1800 060102 1800 060103 1800 060104 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.3N 33.0W 24.8N 32.3W 24.1N 30.9W 20.6N 15.1W
BAMM 25.6N 40.7W 25.4N 43.3W 26.1N 44.6W 26.8N 46.4W
A98E 27.3N 37.0W 26.8N 36.2W 25.9N 35.2W 25.8N 34.5W
LBAR 26.8N 38.0W 26.5N 39.7W 24.8N 38.9W 25.4N 36.6W
SHIP 26KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 26KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 25.1N LONCUR = 37.0W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 24.3N LONM12 = 36.0W DIRM12 = 305DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 23.4N LONM24 = 34.5W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 75NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 75NM

18:00z Models.
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#47 Postby EDR1222 » Fri Dec 30, 2005 1:56 pm

I don't even know what to say! :roll:
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#48 Postby Margie » Fri Dec 30, 2005 1:56 pm

Not so incredible - this had potential starting earlier in the week. Yesterday you could see the surface low on quickscat; the surprise for me was that it pulled together so quickly by morning. I was thinking probably tomorrow, not today.

Take a good look while you can...this one'll be short and sweet, and ring out with the new year. Perfect storybook ending to the season.
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#49 Postby WindRunner » Fri Dec 30, 2005 1:56 pm

And the plots:

Image
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#50 Postby WxGuy1 » Fri Dec 30, 2005 2:11 pm

Just as a note, models and NHC haven't performed as well with cyclones that have originated in the manner that Zeta has (e.g. NOT from a classic west-ward moving tropical wave, etc). For whatever reason (I'd surmise it has a lot to do with the thermodynamic environment typical of upper-troughs turned tropical cyclone), these systems tend to persist longer than one would otherwise think -- look at Vince, Delta and Epsilon... It certainly doesn't help that there are huge data collection issues in the central Atlantic, so you can't expect models to perform too well.
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#51 Postby WindRunner » Fri Dec 30, 2005 2:13 pm

Yeah, and the TAFB was talking about favorable 200mb temps yesterday, so could be another one with hard to predict strength.
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#52 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Dec 30, 2005 2:15 pm

Image
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#53 Postby P.K. » Fri Dec 30, 2005 2:28 pm

WindRunner wrote:Yeah, and the TAFB was talking about favorable 200mb temps yesterday, so could be another one with hard to predict strength.


Here are the 200hPa temperatures for Zeta's current latitude for the next week based on the latest GFS data.

Image
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#54 Postby JamesFromMaine2 » Fri Dec 30, 2005 2:31 pm

pressure is down 3mb from the advisory to 1000mb
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#55 Postby jopatura » Fri Dec 30, 2005 2:32 pm

Okay, this would probably be a somewhat stupid question, but since there's no precedence...

Once 2006 hits, would the name Zeta roll over to Alberto? Kind of like how storms are renamed after leaving the Pacific/Atlantic.
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#56 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Dec 30, 2005 2:33 pm

It would stay Zeta because it formed in 2005!!!
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#57 Postby JamesFromMaine2 » Fri Dec 30, 2005 2:33 pm

No I think it will stay Zeta until its end!
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#58 Postby cycloneye » Fri Dec 30, 2005 2:33 pm

jopatura wrote:Okay, this would probably be a somewhat stupid question, but since there's no precedence...

Once 2006 hits, would the name Zeta roll over to Alberto? Kind of like how storms are renamed after leaving the Pacific/Atlantic.


It will stay with the name Zeta.Now if this system haved formed after the 2005 year was out by January 1 then it would haved been named Alberto.
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#59 Postby jawa89 » Fri Dec 30, 2005 2:40 pm

Ah... ZETA; This just "warms my globe". Do you think it can make it to New York and cause a blizzard? :D
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#60 Postby whereverwx » Fri Dec 30, 2005 2:43 pm

The shear is getting closer...

click here for the water vapor loop
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