95L C Atlantic,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Forecaster Colby]

I'm not so sure about that, if it gets so far south we might see the westerlies pick it up.

[cycloneye]

NOGAPS

[MiamiensisWx]

Here is a link to the entire new NOGAPS run...
http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-bin/nogapstc2.cgi?time=2005112000&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[MiamiensisWx]

The CMC run is also out, I think...
http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2005112000&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[mike815]

Geez maybe we will have another storm. I now it wont have any impact on the US but i want this season to die.

[Forecaster Colby]

Look at the gradient in Nova Scotia! Jeez! 960mb low and 1050mb high??

[P.K.]

The high will likely be nearer 1040hPa http://217.160.75.104/pics/brack2.gif This high is keeping it nice and cool here at the moment, the last few nights minimum temps have been -2.4C, -5.0C, -4.6C, -4.3C.

Edit - Another cold night tonight it looks like due to this, -1.2C at 7:25pm.

[HURAKAN]

In case 95L is upgraded, it will go up to Delta, skipping the TD part.

NRL:
95LINVEST.35kts-1003mb-282N-434W

[WindRunner]

An even tighter loop from the models now.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wow it looks pretty good

[mike815]

It does doesnt it Think of it DELTA whoed thunk that!

[HURAKAN]

5:30 PM EDT TWO:

A large non-tropical low pressure system is located over the central
Atlantic about 1250 miles southwest of the Azores Islands. This
system has some potential to slowly acquire some tropical
characteristics over the next couple of days. Additional
information on this system can be found in high seas forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS header
nfdhsfat1 and WMO header fznt01 kwbc.


THERE IS NO CHANGE FROM THE 11:30 AM TWO.

[mike815]

Didnt think there would be thanks.

[Forecaster Colby]

Yeah, it'll be slow development till it reaches the tropics.

[cycloneye]

A STRENGTHENING 1003 MB LOW IS NEAR 28N43W
MOVING SLOWLY NE. A NEARBY UPPER TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW A
CONTINUED DEEPENING OF THE LOW WITH UPPER DYNAMICS/LIFT ALREADY
PRODUCING ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AND MORE
WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY FROM 17N-29N BETWEEN 44W-50W NEAR AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH. THIS LOW WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED IN
THE COMING DAYS FOR A POSSIBLE TRANSITION TO A SUBTROPICAL STORM
AS UPPER HEIGHTS RISE IN THE MID-LATITUDE CENTRAL ATLC...

7 PM EST Discussion.

[Buck]

If it's named Delta... it won't seem as "odd" as the other Greek letters thus far. Delta is actually a real name!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like convection is starting to form over the center. Its starting to show signs of turning.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

[MiamiensisWx]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 202224
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EST SUN NOV 20 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON WEAKENING
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GAMMA... LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA ABOUT 85 MILES NORTH OF LIMON HONDURAS.

A LARGE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC ABOUT 1250 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO SLOWLY ACQUIRE SOME TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER
NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT
225 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF APPALACHICOLA FLORIDA. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT..AND DEVELOPMENT
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS UNLIKELY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

FORECASTER PASCH

$$

----------------------------------------------

A STRENGTHENING 1003 MB LOW IS NEAR 28N43W
MOVING SLOWLY NE. A NEARBY UPPER TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW A
CONTINUED DEEPENING OF THE LOW WITH UPPER DYNAMICS/LIFT ALREADY
PRODUCING ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AND MORE
WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY FROM 17N-29N BETWEEN 44W-50W NEAR AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH. THIS LOW WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED IN
THE COMING DAYS FOR A POSSIBLE TRANSITION TO A SUBTROPICAL STORM
AS UPPER HEIGHTS RISE IN THE MID-LATITUDE CENTRAL ATLC...

Interesting... the latest Tropical Weather Discussion seems more interesting and somewhat more bullish than the Tropical Weather Outlook. Notice that?

[Forecaster Colby]

Yeah, looking almost subtropical now. STS Delta by tomorrow evening, methinks. And possibly TS/Hurricane Delta soon after.

[mike815]

yeah, subtrapical Delta well it seems really possible. Unbelivable.