Gamma No Threat to FL

[CHRISTY]

HOPE YOU ARE 100 % RIGHT !!!!!!!but honestly after seeing that GFDL run florida should atleast pay close attention just in case?

[SouthFloridawx]

LET'S GET OUR RAINCOATS READY!!!!!

I Fully agree...

hey airforce... any chance that we could see a hybrid system merge with the cold front and produce some decent rain event from florida?

[mike815]

I guess they should those runs are really nasty.

[Air Force Met]

LET'S GET OUR RAINCOATS READY!!!!!

Ahhh...now that's the better bet. Rain Rain go away...lot's of rain til turkey day.

[Air Force Met]

HOPE YOU ARE 100 % RIGHT !!!!!!!but honestly after seeing that GFDL run florida should atleast pay close attention just in case?

People should always pay attention...but not panic and choking on breakfast

And I'm not saying people in SFLO may not see a weak sheared TS Gamma moving south of them...but not a hurricane.

[DESTRUCTION5]

HOPE YOU ARE 100 % RIGHT !!!!!!!but honestly after seeing that GFDL run florida should atleast pay close attention just in case?

People should always pay attention...but not panic and choking on breakfast

And I'm not saying people in SFLO may not see a weak sheared TS Gamma moving south of them...but not a hurricane.

agree Way south of them...

[mike815]

Yeah tru no one should ever chock on breakfest lol. Yeah your right just need to sit back and watch what happ.

[CHRISTY]

actually the GFDL has done pretty good this year! so i think from this point on iam gonna keep an a eye on this feature very close.this hurricane season might just go out with a bang....

[mike815]

I know thats the scary thing the GFDL has proved itself to be very good this yr.

[SouthFloridawx]

LET'S GET OUR RAINCOATS READY!!!!!

Ahhh...now that's the better bet. Rain Rain go away...lot's of rain til turkey day.

Here is the jet stream



it is true there is a very strong jet stream... dippin into the gom

[CHRISTY]

LOOKING PRETTY GOOD THIS MORNING..

[Air Force Met]

Look at all of the cold air strato-cu in the GoM...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/GMEX/VIS/20.jpg

That will get sucked into any LLC that will try to be Gamma. One more reason the GFDL will not be right. That strato-cu represents a very stable environment. As the system moves north...that will get pulled into it...and inhibit any development.

[CHRISTY]

READ WHAT THE NHC JUST PUT OUT...

[vacanechaser]

Look at all of the cold air strato-cu in the GoM...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/GMEX/VIS/20.jpg

That will get sucked into any LLC that will try to be Gamma. One more reason the GFDL will not be right. That strato-cu represents a very stable environment. As the system moves north...that will get pulled into it...and inhibit any development.

You may be right... However, I am not so sure... the temp difference may be what sets this thing off... lets remember that the core of a tropical system is warmer than the surrounding air... This colder air around it, may help set it off, at least to start... Its that temperature difference drives the system basically... Right now looks like it is holding its own...



Jesse v. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercep[t Research Team

[wxman57]

I doubt the GFDL output VERY seriously...there is 90kts of wind in the upper levels forecast by both the NAM and the GFS at that location in 84 hours. The convergent quad of the jet will also be moving into the area at that time

That 84 hour GFDL intensity forecast will not verify. Bet on it. Take it to the bank.

The GFDL is notorious for not recognizing wind shear. Remember it had TD 27 as a Cat 3 hurricane in the NW Caribbean by yesterday. It didn't see the shear that ripped it apart. Same thing here.

[Air Force Met]

READ WHAT THE NHC JUST PUT OUT...

Christy...

1st...STOP TYPING IN ALL CAPS...please.

2nd...Read what I have said. Nobody is discounting the possibility of Gamma. The environment it is in now is favorable. However...the environment over Florida is VERY hostile. High levels of shear, dry air, lot's of very stable air over the Gulf. Just because the NHC says it may become a TS doesn't automatically mean you are going to get slammed by a ~985mb hurricane via the GFDL. Listen to what the mets are trying to tell you instead of panicking (which you seem to have a tendency to do). Not sure if it is just your personality to get over-excited...but this is not going to bring south Florida more than some breezy conditions with a lot of rain.

Given the upper level winds...it is likely to go south of Florida as a sheared system. Once it begins to wrap up and strengthen over the NW Car...it will begin to pull that stable air (currently over the GOM) into it and that will stop the intensity. You know what..it may even become a min hurricane...but it won't be one by the time it gets close to Florida...70-90 kt winds at 300 mb's and super-stable air at the sfc will see to that.

Again...look at the visible sat image I posted of the Gulf and lok at those clouds. Those clouds represent STABLE air...which is a dagger to the heart of every hurricane. Don't believe me? Watch the EPAC hurricane season and look at what happens to them when they get too far west and close in on the cold air strato-cu.

[Air Force Met]

[quote="vacanechaser"][quote="Air Force Met"]
You may be right... However, I am not so sure... the temp difference may be what sets this thing off... lets remember that the core of a tropical system is warmer than the surrounding air... This colder air around it, may help set it off, at least to start... Its that temperature difference drives the system basically... Right now looks like it is holding its own...
/quote]

Right now it's in a mT airmass. When it moves north it will be in a cP (mod) airmass. The temp diff won't make a diff. The temp diff does drive it...but you have to remember, the REAL culprit in development is not necessarily temp delta...but instability caused by the delta. When this system gets out of it's warm envelope...it will move into a stable environment...represented by the strato-cu field. You see it every year in the EPAC. Even though the waters will be ok for sustaining development...the environment will be capped...and so will convection.

Basically "Gamma" will be mixing in a lot of dry air at the sfc....and that will cap the environment and cause the convective temp the skyrocket....which will basically mean the temperature difference will have to be a lot greater than will be available.

[Ivanhater]

You may be right... However, I am not so sure... the temp difference may be what sets this thing off... lets remember that the core of a tropical system is warmer than the surrounding air... This colder air around it, may help set it off, at least to start... Its that temperature difference drives the system basically... Right now looks like it is holding its own...
/quote]

Right now it's in a mT airmass. When it moves north it will be in a cP (mod) airmass. The temp diff won't make a diff. The temp diff does drive it...but you have to remember, the REAL culprit in development is not necessarily temp delta...but instability caused by the delta. When this system gets out of it's warm envelope...it will move into a stable environment...represented by the strato-cu field. You see it every year in the EPAC. Even though the waters will be ok for sustaining development...the environment will be capped...and so will convection.

Basically "Gamma" will be mixing in a lot of dry air at the sfc....and that will cap the environment and cause the convective temp the skyrocket....which will basically mean the temperature difference will have to be a lot greater than will be available.

hey we just learned that last week! mT means marine tropical! lol, just had to say that, i got excited when i saw it

[mike815]

LOL yeah ive been learning about stuff like that in my MET class.

[Windtalker1]

READ WHAT THE NHC JUST PUT OUT...

Christy...

1st...STOP TYPING IN ALL CAPS...please.

2nd...Read what I have said. Nobody is discounting the possibility of Gamma. The environment it is in now is favorable. However...the environment over Florida is VERY hostile. High levels of shear, dry air, lot's of very stable air over the Gulf. Just because the NHC says it may become a TS doesn't automatically mean you are going to get slammed by a ~985mb hurricane via the GFDL. Listen to what the mets are trying to tell you instead of panicking (which you seem to have a tendency to do). Not sure if it is just your personality to get over-excited...but this is not going to bring south Florida more than some breezy conditions with a lot of rain.

Given the upper level winds...it is likely to go south of Florida as a sheared system. Once it begins to wrap up and strengthen over the NW Car...it will begin to pull that stable air (currently over the GOM) into it and that will stop the intensity. You know what..it may even become a min hurricane...but it won't be one by the time it gets close to Florida...70-90 kt winds at 300 mb's and super-stable air at the sfc will see to that.

Again...look at the visible sat image I posted of the Gulf and lok at those clouds. Those clouds represent STABLE air...which is a dagger to the heart of every hurricane. Don't believe me? Watch the EPAC hurricane season and look at what happens to them when they get too far west and close in on the cold air strato-cu.

We have all been know to be wrong in our predictions.....