Invest 93L Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Hyperstorm]

Oh, definitely...very good potential for development if it can remain over water. It has a very broad circulation associated with it along with favorable upper-level winds developing. Again, it is a go if it doesn't move inland with the high pressure ridge setting up to its north. It might be able to stay far enough south to remain in weak steering currents for the next couple of days.

It is quite possible that this system ends up absorbing the tropical depression due to its immense coverage...

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL932005) ON 20051115 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051115 1800 051116 0600 051116 1800 051117 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.6N 78.9W 10.8N 80.8W 11.1N 82.4W 11.4N 84.1W
BAMM 10.6N 78.9W 10.5N 80.6W 10.4N 81.9W 10.3N 82.8W
A98E 10.6N 78.9W 10.6N 79.9W 10.5N 81.2W 10.1N 82.8W
LBAR 10.6N 78.9W 10.7N 80.1W 11.4N 81.4W 12.2N 82.8W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 39KTS 42KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 39KTS 42KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051117 1800 051118 1800 051119 1800 051120 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.6N 85.8W 11.6N 89.4W 12.3N 93.5W 14.4N 95.8W
BAMM 10.3N 83.8W 9.9N 85.0W 9.4N 86.0W 8.7N 87.3W
A98E 9.7N 84.6W 8.9N 88.6W 8.2N 92.6W 7.9N 96.4W
LBAR 13.1N 83.8W 14.4N 84.0W 15.0N 81.8W 15.9N 79.0W
SHIP 44KTS 40KTS 27KTS 0KTS
DSHP 35KTS 28KTS 21KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.6N LONCUR = 78.9W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 10.7N LONM12 = 78.1W DIRM12 = 262DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 10.7N LONM24 = 77.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


First model plots for the second cycle of 93L.

[DESTRUCTION5]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL932005) ON 20051115 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051115 1800 051116 0600 051116 1800 051117 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.6N 78.9W 10.8N 80.8W 11.1N 82.4W 11.4N 84.1W
BAMM 10.6N 78.9W 10.5N 80.6W 10.4N 81.9W 10.3N 82.8W
A98E 10.6N 78.9W 10.6N 79.9W 10.5N 81.2W 10.1N 82.8W
LBAR 10.6N 78.9W 10.7N 80.1W 11.4N 81.4W 12.2N 82.8W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 39KTS 42KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 39KTS 42KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051117 1800 051118 1800 051119 1800 051120 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.6N 85.8W 11.6N 89.4W 12.3N 93.5W 14.4N 95.8W
BAMM 10.3N 83.8W 9.9N 85.0W 9.4N 86.0W 8.7N 87.3W
A98E 9.7N 84.6W 8.9N 88.6W 8.2N 92.6W 7.9N 96.4W
LBAR 13.1N 83.8W 14.4N 84.0W 15.0N 81.8W 15.9N 79.0W
SHIP 44KTS 40KTS 27KTS 0KTS
DSHP 35KTS 28KTS 21KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.6N LONCUR = 78.9W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 10.7N LONM12 = 78.1W DIRM12 = 262DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 10.7N LONM24 = 77.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


First model plots for the second cycle of 93L.

I love Spagetti...

[SouthFloridawx]

Oh, definitely...very good potential for development if it can remain over water. It has a very broad circulation associated with it along with favorable upper-level winds developing. Again, it is a go if it doesn't move inland with the high pressure ridge setting up to its north. It might be able to stay far enough south to remain in weak steering currents for the next couple of days.

It is quite possible that this system ends up absorbing the tropical depression due to its immense coverage...

it is a very big area of rotation...

[cycloneye]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 151618
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EST TUE NOV 15 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN... LOCATED ABOUT 305 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT
LAND AREAS. UPPER LEVEL WINDS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION IN THIS AREA... ALTHOUGH ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE GRADUAL DUE TO ITS POOR ORGANIZATION AND
ITS PROXIMITY TO LAND. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT... THIS SYSTEM
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO NICARAGUA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THESE RAINS COULD LEAD TO LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

FORECASTER KNABB

In case anyone missed the TWO for the second cycle of 93L here it is.

[SouthFloridawx]

[Sanibel]

If it continues to organize it will draw energy away from TD27.


Of the two, 93L looks to have a better structure, but both are somewhat weak and pocked with dry air due to the time of season.

[bvigal]

I'm much more concerned about this as potential for a double-back scenario, Jamaica, Cuba, Hispaniola, Bahamas, or even EC, than any threat to US or Central American mainland. Especially since it seems to be moving little, and here comes TD27 with it's energy to add. A few more days of meandering around down in SW Carib, then a big cold front off US and "voila", we have a 'lefty' in the neighborhood....

[cycloneye]

I'm much more concerned about this as potential for a double-back scenario, Jamaica, Cuba, Hispaniola, Bahamas, or even EC, than any threat to US or Central American mainland. Especially since it seems to be moving little, and here comes TD27 with it's energy to add. A few more days of meandering around down in SW Carib, then a big cold front off US and "voila", we have a 'lefty' in the neighborhood....

Agree 100% with your statement.We here in the NE caribbean will have to watch all of this to see how it evolves and let's hope not to see another Lenny.

[cycloneye]

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN... LOCATED ABOUT 265 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF SAN DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THE SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO NICARAGUA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


5:30 PM TWO

[WindRunner]

Now, what if 93 develops just slightly more and TD 27 stays somewhat weak and the two start to have a little Fujiwara. Then 93 would be moved northward, maybe even away from Central America, and develop and follow a Lenny track, and TD 27 might get shoved down to hit/scrape South America. That would be an appropriate way to finish 2005 .

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Uh you have that completely backwards. IF a fujiwara occurred, 93 would be pushed southward and 27 would go north.

[HURAKAN]

Now, what if 93 develops just slightly more and TD 27 stays somewhat weak and the two start to have a little Fujiwara. Then 93 would be moved northward, maybe even away from Central America, and develop and follow a Lenny track, and TD 27 might get shoved down to hit/scrape South America. That would be an appropriate way to finish 2005 .

REMEMBER, COUNTER-CLOCKWISE.

[SouthFloridawx]

WHXX01 KWBC 151850

CHGHUR



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.



.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....



NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL932005) ON 20051115 1800 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...

051115 1800 051116 0600 051116 1800 051117 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 10.6N 78.9W 10.8N 80.8W 11.1N 82.4W 11.4N 84.1W

BAMM 10.6N 78.9W 10.5N 80.6W 10.4N 81.9W 10.3N 82.8W

A98E 10.6N 78.9W 10.6N 79.9W 10.5N 81.2W 10.1N 82.8W

LBAR 10.6N 78.9W 10.7N 80.1W 11.4N 81.4W 12.2N 82.8W

SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 39KTS 42KTS

DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 39KTS 42KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...

051117 1800 051118 1800 051119 1800 051120 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 11.6N 85.8W 11.6N 89.4W 12.3N 93.5W 14.4N 95.8W

BAMM 10.3N 83.8W 9.9N 85.0W 9.4N 86.0W 8.7N 87.3W

A98E 9.7N 84.6W 8.9N 88.6W 8.2N 92.6W 7.9N 96.4W

LBAR 13.1N 83.8W 14.4N 84.0W 15.0N 81.8W 15.9N 79.0W

SHIP 44KTS 40KTS 27KTS 0KTS

DSHP 35KTS 28KTS 21KTS 0KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 10.6N LONCUR = 78.9W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 4KT

LATM12 = 10.7N LONM12 = 78.1W DIRM12 = 262DEG SPDM12 = 3KT

LATM24 = 10.7N LONM24 = 77.5W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

[SouthFloridawx]

[cycloneye]

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER HIGH IS FANNING OUT OVER THE W CARIBBEAN... SHOVING THE
UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN IN THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS
NORTHWARD TO NEAR HISPANIOLA. DIVERGENCE FROM THIS HIGH
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS S OF 15.5N BETWEEN
75W AND CENTRAL AMERICA... AND COULD AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
1007 MB LOW NEAR 11N79W. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THIS
LOW INTERACTS WITH TD 27.. WITH SOME MODELS NOW TRYING TO FOCUS
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN AND WEAKENING
THE CURRENT SYSTEM. RIDGING FROM THE UPPER HIGH EXTENDS FROM E
NICARAGUA TO 14N70W ... WITH THE DEPRESSION TRYING TO GET UNDER
THE ERN FLANK OF THE HIGH. A SHOWERY PATTERN IS IN PLACE OVER
THE SOUTHERN LEEWARDS INTO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AS THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE LEAVES. A LITTLE INFUSION OF DRIER AIR FROM THE N
SHOULD DRY OUT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SOME TOMORROW WITH ANOTHER
WETTER-THAN-AVERAGE DAY IN THE WINDWARDS. HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE DISTURBANCE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN IN E HONDURAS
SOUTHWARD THRU PANAMA

7 PM EST Discussion.

As the discussion says it will be very interesting to see how the two systems interact.

[P.K.]

WHXX04 KWBC 152318
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP UNCOUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 93L

INITIAL TIME 18Z NOV 15

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 10.6 78.8 265./ 4.1
6 11.0 79.3 306./ 6.1
12 11.1 80.0 275./ 7.4
18 11.3 80.5 300./ 5.1
24 11.7 80.8 312./ 5.2
30 11.6 81.4 259./ 5.2
36 11.5 81.4 197./ 1.0
42 11.4 81.6 254./ 1.7

STORM DISSIPATED AT 42 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

[brunota2003]

HOLY CRUDE, I thought this died??? wow, where have i been??? lol, oh, watching TD 27...duh...

[mike815]

yES this will be very interesting in how they interact.

[jusforsean]

Yes I have been busy watching td27 as well , so at what point exactly should they collide?? Tonight , tommorrow??? If they do at all?? I hate the waiting game but i cant seem to stay away from the tropics either:)