Tropical Wave at Caribbean

WindRunner · #41 Postby **WindRunner** » Wed Oct 26, 2005 8:00 pm

I think it might finally be Cape Verde season . . .

#42 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Oct 26, 2005 8:06 pm

If the shear wasn't in that area this wave would haved developed already as the deep convection has persisted for more than 24-36 hours.

We are talking about a wave that far in the atlantic at late october but as we know 2005 season has not followed climatology.

#43 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Oct 26, 2005 8:38 pm

E-CENTRAL ATLC WAVE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W S OF 15N WITH A
1008 MB LOW ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 9N...MOVING W 10-15 KT.
SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE A LOW HAS FORMED ON THE WAVE BUT
VERY STRONG WLY SHEAR SHOULD SUPPRESS DEVELOPMENT. THIS SHEAR
IS ALSO ALLOWING PLENTY OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION TO FORM
NEAR THE WAVE...FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 34W-38W.

I forgot to post the 8 PM Disccussion for this wave but here it is.

#44 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Oct 26, 2005 10:00 pm

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE BETWEEN
AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. UPPER-LEVEL LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.

10:30 PM TWO

#45 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Oct 26, 2005 10:23 pm

lots of convection firing tonight.

It certainly seems like this season is never going to end.

jkt21787 · #46 Postby **jkt21787** » Wed Oct 26, 2005 10:25 pm

boca_chris wrote:lots of convection firing tonight.

It certainly seems like this season is never going to end.

Its waaaaaaaaay too sheared for anything to develop here, as the TWO indicates. If it somehow survives the shear (doubtful) as it moves west, maybe several days from now it will be worth a closer look. Right now its just a disorganized mess of convection that has no chance of development.

#47 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Oct 26, 2005 10:28 pm

91L has me more concerned right now, followed by the new depression in the SW Caribbean.

#48 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Oct 27, 2005 7:11 am

E/CENTRAL ATLC WAVE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W/39W S OF 16N WITH
A 1008 MB LOW ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 9N...MOVING W 10-15 KT.
SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 11N33W 11N37W
TO 9N41W.

8 AM Discussion.

Hyperstorm · #49 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Thu Oct 27, 2005 8:00 am

Here we go again...WOW!

The very well defined wave over the central Atlantic is steadily moving westward. Over the past 24 hours, you can definitely see (unfortunately) that upper-level conditions are gradually becoming more favorable just as forecast a few days ago by some models. Conditions in the upper-levels should become much more favorable during the day tomorrow (not what we all want to hear) beneath a VERY powerful ridge of high pressure in the upper-levels that is dominating the central and eastern Atlantic Ocean for thousands of miles.

This only means that yes...watch out for this wave possibly developing into a tropical cyclone before it reaches the Lesser Antilles. Notice that I said, before it reaches the Lesser Antilles...Yes, this system has potential to impact the islands under a fairly persistent easterly flow.

I'm completely awed by this powerful season...

#50 Postby **curtadams** » Thu Oct 27, 2005 9:52 am

Unfortunately shear doesn't really kill these systems, it just strips them down to disorganized lows. They keep drifting west and if they encounter favorable conditions they develop. This will remain a vigorous wave drifting west over warm seas and it has a lot of ocean to find a spot with low shear.

fuzzyblow · #51 Postby **fuzzyblow** » Thu Oct 27, 2005 10:09 am

Gulp , , , huu, winter is coming hmm? :roll:

...twll be nice... 8-)

Scorpion · #52 Postby **Scorpion** » Thu Oct 27, 2005 10:22 am

Wow, we could get Delta.

#53 Postby **Bob R** » Thu Oct 27, 2005 11:34 am

This one definitely has my attention.
Maybe Gamma, or perhaps Delta.

#54 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Oct 27, 2005 11:36 am

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS
SYSTEM HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...AND
UPPER-LEVEL LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT.

11:30 AM TWO.

They are not so bullish with this wave.

Steve H. · #55 Postby **Steve H.** » Thu Oct 27, 2005 12:01 pm

Maybe not right now, but it is a strong wave. Just like the one in the Caribbean now, it will bear watching over the weekend and into next week.

#56 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Oct 27, 2005 1:14 pm

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W SOUTH OF 16N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A SURFACE 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
IS NEAR 8N ALONG THE WAVE. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WINDS WITH THE
FLOW AROUND A LOW CENTER NEAR 9N52W ARE CUTTING ACROSS THE AREA
OF THIS WAVE FROM EAST TO WEST. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
ALSO IS NEAR THE WAVE FROM 7N TO 15N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W.
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND SOME POSSIBLE REMAINING SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARE ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE ITCZ
FROM 8N TO 15N BETWEEN 38W AND 43W

2 PM Discussion.

#57 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Oct 27, 2005 1:44 pm

TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 9.6N 38.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 27.10.2005 9.6N 38.3W WEAK

00UTC 28.10.2005 10.6N 40.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 28.10.2005 10.2N 44.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 29.10.2005 11.3N 45.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 29.10.2005 11.3N 49.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 30.10.2005

The only model that I haved seen so far showing some type of development of this wave is the UKMET model.The above is the 12z UKMET.

#58 Postby **Ivanhater** » Thu Oct 27, 2005 5:41 pm

5:30

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES REMAINS DISORGANIZED.

#59 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Oct 27, 2005 9:19 pm

The 10:30 PM TWO for this wave shortly.

wxmann_91 · #60 Postby **wxmann_91** » Thu Oct 27, 2005 9:26 pm

The new TWO now mentions nothing about this wave.

Tropical Wave at Caribbean

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